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Albania Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Albania Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Weak oil prices have essentially stalled exploration and development work in Albania'supstream, and will negatively impact production in 2016. Two key companies are also looking to exit theirposition in the country as investment is pulled back.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Albania's oil and gas sector:

We have revised down full-year oil production for 2015 and our forecast for 2016 due to reducedinvestment in the upstream.

Bankers Petroleum, the top producer has suspended its drilling programme over H116 due to low oilprices.

Bankers will focus on its polymer flood programme and is targeting 16 well conversions in H216, thoughonly if oil prices improve.

As of January 2016, only one rig was operating in Albania, according to Baker Hughes.

Petromanas sold its entire Albanian asset base to Shell in February 2016 for USD45mn.

TransAtlantic is still in the process of marketing its entire Albanian portfolio, putting around 700b/d ofoil production and the country's best gas prospect at risk.

We now see no domestic gas production over our forecast, with the TransAtlantic's Delvina prospectdelayed for years at best.

The construction schedule of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) - traversing Albania on its route fromGreece to Italy - remains on track for gas deliveries in 2020.

The refining sector has seen little benefit from stronger global fuels demand. The country produces nogasoline which supported strong margins over the last 18 months.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Albania 2014-2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Albania Exploration Blocks & Status
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Albania 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Albania 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Albania 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Albania 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Albania 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Albania 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Albania 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Albania 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Crude Oil
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Albania 2014-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Albania 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Albania 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Albania 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Albania 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Albania 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Albania - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Albania Energy Market Overview
Political Regime
Table: BMI Albania Political Overview Table
Fiscal Regime
Table: State Take Of Oil And Gas Revenues - Adriatic & East Mediterranean
Table: Fiscal Structure
Oil & Gas Licensing
Table: Exploration & Production Rights
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Table: Albania Refineries
Table: Ballsh & Fier Refinery Setup
Oil Infrastructure
Table: Existing Oil Pipelines
Gas Infrastructure
Table: Existing Gas Pipelines
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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