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Albania Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Albania Country Risk Report Q4 2019

We retain our real GDP growth forecasts at 3.6% in 2019 despite data showing a sharp slowdown in economic activity in Q119. The more pronounced than expected slowdown in Q119 was largely the result of transient factors (weak electricity production) that will fade over the coming months while broad economic fundamentals will be largely growth supportive. In 2020, we continue to forecast a slight acceleration in growth driven by continued strength in domestic demand and a moderate improvement in the external environment.

We identify several flashpoints, including controversial municipal elections, a contentious media law and an attempt to impeach the president, that will keep tensions between the Albanian government and opposition elevated. As a result, we expect to see a continuation and potentially even an escalation in protests by opposition supporters against the government over the coming months. These domestic challenges combined with growing EU aversion towards further enlargement lead us to re-iterate our view that Albania is likely to make very little progress towards EU accession in the medium term.

Major Forecast Changes

No major changes.

Key Risks

Political risk is looming with tensions between the government and opposition parties building. To the extent that this leads to instability, economic growth could come in below our current forecasts.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Albanian Economy To Remain On Strong Footing Despite Weak Growth In Q119
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Albanian Economy To 2028
Regional Outlook To Weigh On Trend Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Anti-Government Protests To Escalate Amid Rising Tensions In Albania
Albania Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsLong-Term Political Outlook
Stumbling Towards The EU
Operational Risk
South East Europe
TABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK
TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
TABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
Global Macro Outlook
Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: ALBANIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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