BMI View: The overall outlook for the Afghanistan telecoms sector remains positive, with stable prospectsfor the mobile segment. The mobile market has displayed strong growth over the past few years and wecontinue to believe that the market will tick upwards over the course of our forecast period to 2021. Alloperators have invested heavily in expanding their 3G networks, a service which is now available in allmajor cities. We believe that operators will develop and expand their 3G services and look to capitalize onthe organic subscriber growth prospects in the mobile market over the fixed segment. Furthermore, as thecountry inches towards 4G deployment, there is hope that LTE services will further stimulate innovation inthe mobile data segment.
The mobile market ended 2016 with an estimated total of around 16.5mn active mobile subscribers, upfrom 21.9mn active mobile subscribers by end of 2015. We estimate steady organic in terms of activemobile subscribers as our new forecast envisages a total of 32.6mn active subscribers by the end of 2021.
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