The Global Wireless M2M/IoT Market
A complete set of two unique reports - offering in-depth analysis and unique insights into the global wireless M2M/IoT market on 300 pages. This package comprises the following report titles: The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market – 4th Edition and Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems – 3rd Edition. The reports also come with extensive data Excels.
The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market analyses thelatest trends and developments in cellular IoT and low powerwireless networking.
This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides youwith 180 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-yearindustry forecasts and expert commentary on which to baseyour business decisions.
Highlights from the report:
360-degree overview of the cellular IoT communicationsecosystem.
Update on the adoption of NB-IoT and LPWA standards forM2M/IoT networking.
Reviews of the IoT strategies of leading mobile operators.
Summary of industry trends in all world regions.
IoT business KPIs for leading global mobile operators.
Statistical data on cellular IoT subscribers in all world regions.
Extensive global and regional market forecasts lasting until 2023.
This report answers the following questions:
How will the global cellular IoT market evolve over the next fiveyears?
Why has China become the world’s largest market for cellularIoT?
Which are the main market trends in Europe and NorthAmerica?
What is the status of cellular IoT in emerging markets?
What impact will 5G have on the IoT market?
What are the leading global mobile operators’ strategies for theIoT market?
How much revenues did leading telecom groups generate fromIoT in 2018?
What is the outlook for emerging low power wireless networkingtechnologies?
Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems gives acomprehensive overview of the main wide area networkingtechnologies for the Internet of Things – 2G/3G/4G/5G cellular,LoRa, Sigfox and 802.15.4 WAN.
This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides youwith 120 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-yearindustry forecasts and expert commentary on which to base yourbusiness decisions.
Highlights from the report:
360-degree overview of the main IoT wide area networkingecosystems.
Comparison of technologies and standards.
Updated profiles of the main suppliers of IoT chipsets andmodules.
Cellular IoT module market data for 2018.
Early adoption trends for emerging LPWA technologies.
Cellular and non-cellular LPWA IoT device market forecast until2023.
This report answers the following questions:
How will the IoT wide area networking technology market evolveover the next five years?
Who are the new challengers in the cellular IoT module market?
Which new mass-volume segments can be addressed by lowcostLPWA technologies?
Why are the new standards LTE-M and NB-IoT so significant forthe cellular IoT ecosystem?
How are Chinese national policies driving the migration from 2Gto 4G?
When will 5G appear in the cellular IoT market?
What is the current installed base of LoRa and Sigfox?What are the prospects for emerging LPWA technologystandards?
Berg Insight estimates that the global number of cellular IoT subscribers increased by 70percent during 2018 to reach 1.21 billion at the end of the year – corresponding to around 13percent of all mobile subscribers. Until 2023, the number of cellular IoT subscribers isforecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.4 percent to reach 9.03billion at the end of the period. During the same period, cellular IoT network revenues areforecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.4 percent from € 6.7billion in 2018 to approximately € 29.4 billion in 2023. Meanwhile the monthly ARPU isexpected to drop to € 0.27.
East Asia was the largest region with 848.0 million IoT subscribers at the end of 2018, farahead of Western Europe and North America with 157.6 million and 111.7 millionrespectively. Altogether the main regions accounted for over 95 percent of the global installedbase. Latin America, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Russia & CIS had in the range of 19–32million cellular IoT subscribers each, while Africa, Middle East, Central Eastern Europe, andAustralia & Oceania were in the span 7–19 million.
China is the world’s largest market for cellular IoT connectivity services by volume. Accordingto operator subscriber data, the installed base grew by 124 percent year-on-year to reach 767million at the end of 2018. This corresponded to 63 percent of the global installed base. Thespectacular numbers reported by the domestic mobile operators leave no doubt that China isleading the global adoption of massive IoT. The country has surpassed Europe and NorthAmerica in terms of penetration rate – 54.7 IoT connections per 100 inhabitants at the end of2018 – and is on track to reach 1 billion IoT connections during 2019. The Chinesegovernment is actively driving adoption as a tool for achieving domestic and economic policygoals, at the same time as the private sector implements IoT technology to improve efficiencyand drive innovation. Berg Insight believes that the role of the government is the mainexplanation for why China is ahead of the rest of the world in the adoption of IoT. Like otheradvanced economies, the country has widespread adoption of connected cars, fleetmanagement, smart metering, asset monitoring and other traditional applications for cellularIoT. It has also given rise to new consumer services enabled by connectivity like bike sharing.The most distinctive characteristic of the Chinese IoT market is however the way that thegovernment is systematically using new technology to implement its vision for urban life in the21st century.
China Mobile is the world’s largest provider of cellular IoT connectivity. At the end of 2018, theoperator reported 551 million IoT connections and a year-on-year growth rate of 141 percent.China Unicom and China Telecom ranked second and third with 110 million and 106 millionconnections respectively. Vodafone ranked first among the Western operators and fourthoverall with 81 million connections, followed by AT&T in fifth place with 51 million. Verizon,Deutsche Telekom and Telefónica had in the range 25–35 million cellular IoT connections.Softbank/Sprint and Telenor were the last players in the top ten with 21 million and 17 millionconnections respectively. Year-on-year growth rates for the mentioned operators were in thespan 20–35 percent, except for Softbank/Sprint that only grew 3 percent.
IoT connectivity revenues are growing at a considerably slower rate than the number ofconnections. Berg Insight’s analysis of the IoT business KPIs released by mobile operators indifferent parts of the world suggests that global IoT revenues increased by around 19 percentduring 2018, while the monthly APRU dropped by 30 percent. Excluding China, the trend wasless dramatic with revenues growing by 16 percent and ARPU declining 7 percent. Indeed,there is a negative correlation between growth in connections and monthly ARPU as the bulkof net additions are cost sensitive devices.
Verizon reported the highest IoT revenues of € 1.4 billion (US$ 1.6 billion) in 2018 and thehighest monthly ARPU of an estimated € 3.65. Around 60 percent of sales derived from theVerizon Connect fleet management and telematics business. China Mobile ranked secondwith yearly IoT sales of € 964 million but had the lowest monthly ARPU of just € 0.21.Vodafone and AT&T were not far behind. Annual IoT revenues for the Vodafone group in 2018were approximately € 830 million, with a monthly ARPU of € 0.82. AT&T does not report IoTrevenues but is believed to have generated approximately € 750–800 million.
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The Internet of Things is weaving a new worldwide web of interconnected objects. At the endof 2018, approximately 1.3 billion devices were connected to wide area networks based oncellular or LPWA technologies. The market is highly diverse and divided into multipleecosystems. This report will focus on the four most prominent technology ecosystems for widearea IoT networking – the 3GPP ecosystem of cellular technologies, the emerging LPWAtechnologies LoRa and Sigfox and the 802.15.4 ecosystem.
The 3GPP family of cellular technologies support the biggest ecosystem in wide area IoTnetworking. Berg Insight estimates that the global number of cellular IoT subscribers increasedby 70.0 percent during 2018 to reach 1.2 billion at the end of the year – corresponding to around13.0 percent of all mobile subscribers. Yearly shipments of cellular IoT devices increased by76.2 percent in 2018 to reach 651.9 million units. Growth was fuelled by an exceptional marketexpansion in China, where the installed base of cellular IoT connections increased by 124.1percent year-on-year to reach 767.0 million at the end of 2018.
The cellular IoT technology landscape is in a phase of rapid transformation. Developments inChina accelerate a global shift from 2G/3G to 4G technologies. As the initial focus for 5G willbe high-bandwidth applications, Berg Insight believes that 4G will become the preferredplatform for IoT in the foreseeable future. The move from 2G to 4G began in North America with3G as an intermediate technology. The region has seen rapid uptake of LTE CAT-1 since 2017and CAT-M starting in 2018 at the same time as GPRS and CDMA are fading away. Europebegan to see adoption of LTE CAT-1 in 2018 and is now followed by an accelerated uptake ofLTE-M and NB-IoT in 2019/2020. China is moving fast from GPRS to NB-IoT in the mass-marketsegment and cumulative NB-IoT shipments are expected to exceed 190 million units by theend of 2019. At the same time there will also be fast-growing demand for LTE CAT-1 and LTEM,as well as LTE CAT-3+. 2G and 3G will be in steady decline in all developed markets withdemand shifting to developing countries with limited availability of 4G networks. Berg Insightexpects that 5G will become commercially available for verticals such as automotive in 2020.
LoRa is gaining momentum as a global connectivity platform for IoT devices. According toSemtech, the global installed base of LoRa devices was approximately 87 million at thebeginning of 2019. The first major volume application segments are smart gas and watermetering, where LoRa’s low power consumption matches the requirements for long-life batteryoperation. LoRa is also gaining traction for metropolitan area and local area IoT deploymentsas a platform for networking smart sensors in cities, buildings, manufacturing plants andsimilar. Semtech has stated that it generated in the range of US$ 78 million in revenues fromLoRa chips in its financial year ending in January 2019 and expects to reach US$ 100–140million in fiscal 2020. Berg Insight estimates that yearly shipments of LoRa devices were 36.3million units in 2018. Until 2023, yearly shipments are forecasted to grow at a compound annualgrowth rate (CAGR) of 33.7 percent to reach 155.0 million units. While the Asia-Pacific regionaccounted for about 60 percent of total shipments in 2018, LoRa device shipments in Europeand North America are expected to scale into significant volumes in the coming years as earlyadopters move from pilots to large-scale deployments.
Sigfox has very ambitious plans for establishing the technology bearing the company’s nameas the leading global platform for ultra-narrow band IoT networks. In order to meet its strategicgoals, Sigfox must be able to break into entirely new mass-volume device segments and proveits capability to create value by adding connectivity to things that never communicated before.At the end of 2018, Sigfox reported 6.2 million connected devices. In a positive scenario whereearly trials ramp up to large-scale commercial deployments, Berg Insight forecasts thatshipments of Sigfox devices will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63.1percent from 3.8 million units in 2018 to 43.9 million units by 2023.
802.15.4 WAN is an established connectivity platform for private wide area wireless meshnetworks used for applications such as smart metering. Faced with increasing competition fromemerging LPWA standards, 802.15.4 WAN is however only expected to grow at moderate ratein the coming years. Berg Insight forecasts that shipments of 802.15.4 WAN devices will growat a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.3 percent from 19.3 million units in 2018 to46.6 million units by 2023. Smart metering is expected to account for the bulk of demand. Wi-SUN is the leading industry standard for smart electricity metering networks in North America,with adoption also spreading to Asia-Pacific and Europe.
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