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Global M2M/IoT Communications Market

Executive summary
1 M2M/IoT networking and technologies
1.1 Cellular M2M/IoT from 2G to 4G and beyond
1.1.1 2G/3G mobile networks
1.1.2 4G mobile networks
1.1.3 LTE-M and NB-IOT
1.1.4 LPWA and satellite networks
1.1.5 Cellular and LPWA technologies and the IoT market
1.2 IoT devices in cellular networks
1.2.1 Cellular IoT modules and hardware
1.2.2 SIM solutions and embedded UICC
1.2.3 IoT connectivity management platforms
1.2.4 IoT application enablement platforms
1.3 International coverage and alliances
1.3.1 Roaming and international coverage
1.3.2 Mobile operator alliances
2 Europe
2.1 Regional market trends
2.1.1 Western Europe
2.1.2 Regional market trends in Western Europe
2.1.3 Central Eastern Europe and Russia & CIS
2.2 Mobile operators
2.2.1 Vodafone
2.2.2 Deutsche Telekom
2.2.3 Telefónica
2.2.4 Orange
2.2.5 Telenor
2.2.6 3 Group Europe
2.2.7 Belgacom
2.2.8 EE
2.2.9 KPN
2.2.10 MTS
2.2.11 SFR
2.2.12 Telecom Italia
2.2.13 Swisscom
2.2.14 Telekom Austria
2.2.15 TeliaSonera
2.2.16 Tele2
2.2.17 CDMA/LTE networks for the 450 MHz band
2.3 M2M managed service providers
2.3.1 Wireless Logic
2.3.2 Sierra Wireless – Wireless Maingate and MobiquiThings
2.3.3 Telit
2.3.4 Cubic Telecom
2.3.5 Stream Technologies
2.4 LPWA networks
2.4.1 Sigfox and network partners
2.4.2 LoRa networks
3 The Americas
3.1 Regional market trends
3.1.1 United States and Canada
3.1.2 Brazil
3.1.3 Rest of Latin America
3.2 Mobile operators
3.2.1 AT&T
3.2.2 Verizon
3.2.3 Sprint
3.2.4 T-Mobile USA
3.2.5 Rogers Communications
3.2.6 Bell Canada
3.2.7 América Móvil
3.2.8 Vivo and Telefónica Latin America
3.2.9 Other mobile operators in Latin America
3.3 M2M managed service providers
3.3.1 Aeris Communications
3.3.2 KORE Telematics
3.3.3 Numerex
3.3.4 Wyless
3.4 LPWA networks
3.5 Satellite networks
3.5.1 Orbcomm
3.5.2 Iridium
3.5.3 Inmarsat
3.5.4 Globalstar
4 Asia-Pacific
4.1 Regional market trends
4.1.1 China
4.1.2 Japan and South Korea
4.1.3 Australia and New Zealand
4.1.4 Southeast Asia
4.1.5 India and South Asia
4.2 Mobile operators
4.2.1 China Mobile
4.2.2 China Unicom
4.2.3 China Telecom
4.2.4 Softbank
4.2.5 NTT Docomo
4.2.6 KDDI
4.2.7 SK Telecom
4.2.8 SingTel
4.2.9 Axiata
4.2.10 Telstra
5 Middle East & Africa
5.1 Regional market trends
5.1.1 Middle East
5.1.2 Africa
5.2 Mobile operators
5.2.1 Etisalat
5.2.2 FastNet
5.2.3 Ooredoo
5.2.4 MTN
5.2.5 Turkcell
5.2.6 Vodacom
6 Market forecasts and trends
6.1 Geographic markets
6.1.1 Global market summary
6.1.2 Europe
6.1.3 North America
6.1.4 Latin America
6.1.5 Asia-Pacific
6.1.6 Middle East & Africa
6.2 Vertical markets
6.2.1 Connected cars is becoming a global phenomenon
6.2.2 International consolidation and growth in the fleet management industry
6.2.3 Insurance and finance drive demand for consumer aftermarket telematics
6.2.4 Nationwide smart metering rollouts behind growth in the utilities sector
6.2.5 POS-terminals is a key application category in emerging markets
6.3 Technology trends
6.3.1 LTE set to become the future network platform for cellular M2M
6.3.2 Massive interest in emerging LPWA technologies…
6.3.3 …but will NB-IOT kill the market?
6.4 Industry trends
6.4.1 M2M/IoT finally becomes a substantial business for mobile operators
6.4.2 M2M managed service providers continue to grow and consolidate
6.4.3 Operators in search for an optimal business model for M2M/IoT
6.4.4 Market co-opetition requires carefully balanced strategies
6.4.5 International cellular M2M connectivity remains a challenge
Glossary
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Comparison of LTE-family cellular technologies
Figure 1.2: Comparison of LPWA and satellite technologies
Figure 1.3: Cost comparison for IoT technologies (2015)
Figure 1.4: Examples of cellular IoT modules
Figure 1.5: Top wireless module vendors, by revenues and shipments (World 2014)
Figure 1.6: Comparison of SIM form factors
Figure 1.7: Mobile operators supporting GSMA Embedded SIM, by region (Q3-2015)
Figure 1.8: IoT connectivity platform selection by mobile operator (Q3-2015)
Figure 1.9: Application platform and mobile operator partnerships (Q3-2015)
Figure 1.10: Mobile operator M2M alliances (Q3-2015)
Figure 2.1: Mobile operators in Western Europe by M2M subscriber base (Q4-2014)
Figure 2.2: Europe M2M connectivity market data (Q4-2014)
Figure 2.3: France cellular M2M market connectivity data (2013–2015)
Figure 2.4: UK cellular M2M market connectivity data (2013–2014)
Figure 2.5: Germany cellular M2M market connectivity data (2014–2015)
Figure 2.6: Spain & Portugal cellular M2M market connectivity data (2013–2015)
Figure 2.7: Benelux cellular M2M market connectivity data (2013–2015)
Figure 2.8: Nordics cellular M2M market connectivity data (2013–2015)
Figure 2.9: Telefónica M2M subscribers by country (2014–2015)
Figure 2.10: Financial data for Telenor Connexion (2010–2014)
Figure 2.11: Sigfox network partners in Europe (Q3-2015)
Figure 2.12: Planned LoRa network rollouts in Europe (Q3-2015)
Figure 3.1: The Americas M2M connectivity market data (Q3-2015)
Figure 3.2: US cellular M2M market connectivity data (2012–2015)
Figure 3.3: Brazil cellular M2M market connectivity data (2013–2015)
Figure 3.4: Estimated number of M2M subscribers in Latin America ex. Brazil (H1-2015)
Figure 3.5: Telefónica M2M subscribers in Latin America by country (2013–2015)
Figure 3.6: Satellite network operators by M2M subscriber base (Q3-2015)
Figure 4.1: Asia-Pacific M2M connectivity market data (2014/2015)
Figure 4.2: Japan cellular M2M market connectivity data (2012–2015)
Figure 4.3: M2M subscribers by application category (South Korea, August 2015)
Figure 5.1: Turkey cellular M2M market connectivity data (2013–2015)
Figure 6.1: Key regional markets for cellular M2M (Q1-2015)
Figure 6.2: Cellular M2M subscriber forecast, by region (World 2014–2020)
Figure 6.3: Cellular M2M network revenue forecast, by region (World 2014–2020)
Figure 6.4: Cellular M2M communication market forecast (Europe 2014–2020)
Figure 6.5: Cellular M2M communication market forecast (North America 2014–2020)
Figure 6.6: Cellular M2M communication market forecast (Latin America 2014–2020)
Figure 6.7: Cellular M2M communication market forecast (Asia-Pacific 2014–2020)
Figure 6.8: Cellular M2M communication market forecast (MEA 2014–2020)
Figure 6.9: Cellular M2M communication market forecast, by vertical (World 2014–2020)
Figure 6.10: OEM telematics attach rates in new vehicles, by region (2015/2020)
Figure 6.11: Top 25 international providers of fleet management solutions (2015)
Figure 6.12: POS-terminal installed base in key emerging markets (World 2014)
Figure 6.13: Cellular IoT device shipments, by network technology (World 2014–2020)
Figure 6.14: Top 10 mobile operators by M2M subscriber base (World Q1-2015)
Figure 6.15: Quarterly M2M/IoT revenue estimates for major operators (Q3-2015)
Figure 6.16: Top 5 M2M managed service providers by subscriber base (Q4-2015)

Global M2M/IoT Communications Market

The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market analyses the latest trends and developments in cellular M2M and low power wireless networking.

This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides you with 150 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-year industry forecasts and expert commentary on which to base your business decisions.

Highlights from the report:

360-degree overview of the M2M/IoT communication ecosystem.
Update on new industry standards for M2M/IoT networking.
Reviews of the M2M/IoT strategies of leading mobile operators.
Summary of industry trends in all world regions.
Statistical data on cellular M2M subscribers in Europe, the Americas and Asia-Pacific.
Extensive global and regional market forecasts lasting until 2020.

This report answers the following questions:

How will the global cellular M2M market evolve over the next five years?
What are the main drivers behind growth in major regions and industries?
What is the status of cellular M2M in emerging markets?
What are the leading global mobile operators’ strategies for the M2M/IoT market?
Which are the strategic options for moving up the M2M/IoT value chain?
How will LTE-M and NB-IOT transform the cellular M2M market?
What is the outlook for emerging low power wireless networking technologies?


Executive summary

Berg Insight estimates that the global number of cellular M2M subscribers increased by 23 percent during 2015 to reach 265.2 million at the end of the year – corresponding to around 3 percent of all mobile subscribers. Until 2020, the number of cellular M2M subscribers is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.9 percent to reach 744.2 million at the end of the period. During the same period, cellular M2M network revenues are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 23.3 percent from € 8.0 billion in 2015 to approximately €_22.8 billion in 2020. Meanwhile the monthly ARPU is expected to remain stable at around €_2.50.

East Asia was the largest region, closely followed by Western Europe and North America. Altogether they accounted for around 76 percent of the global cellular M2M subscriber base at the end of 2015. Until 2020, the relative share of the regions is expected to decrease slightly as adoption takes off in other parts of the world. At the end of 2015, East Asia was the largest regional market with 90.4 million cellular M2M subscribers, growing 25 percent yearon- year. Western Europe came second with 59.0 million M2M subscribers and 21 percent year-on-year growth. North America ranked third with 52.5 million cellular M2M subscribers, and a year-on-year growth rate of 24 percent. Among individual countries, China was clearly number one with around 70 million M2M subscribers, ahead of the US with approximately 50 million M2M subscribers. The combined size of the EU+EFTA market was around 64 million M2M subscribers.

Berg Insight believes that M2M/IoT has reached a stage of early maturity where a number of players have capitalised on envisioned opportunities to develop substantial new businesses. At the beginning of 2015, the ten largest mobile operators in the M2M market had an estimated combined subscriber base of 164.3 million and year-on-year growth rates of 15–35 percent. China Mobile has an exceptional market position, as the dominant player in the domestic mobile industry. At the end of Q1-2015, the M2M subscriber base was an estimated 46.2 million. Vodafone and AT&T are the top international market players with their respective main bases in Europe and North America. The groups were head-to-head in terms of volume with over 21 million M2M subscribers each. China Unicom and Verizon Wireless were other top five players with 13–14 million connections each. Telefónica, Softbank/Sprint, Deutsche Telekom, Telenor and America Móvil were other top ten players with 8–12 million M2M subscribers each. A common characteristic for them all is that they are multi-regional operations across Europe, the Americas or Asia-Pacific.

Another sign of maturity in the M2M/IoT industry is the release of revenue figures from some telecom operator groups. Verizon and Vodafone reported quarterly M2M/IoT revenues in the range of € 150–200 million each in the first half of 2015 and could be on track to reach € 1 billion on an annual basis within a few years’ time. Both groups have substantial telematics businesses, originally established through acquisitions. Besides traditional connectivity and professional services, they generate a considerable share of their sales from automotive products, driver assistance services and connected automotive applications.

The wireless M2M/IoT technology landscape is rapidly changing. 2G networks are gradually taken out of service to be replaced by more efficient 4G technology. At the same time, new enhancements are being added to the LTE standard to better accommodate typical M2M use-cases with large numbers of devices and very low data requirements. In a few years, LTEM wireless modules will be available for the same price as today’s GPRS modules, delivering superior performance using less network resources. A new generation of LPWA technologies hit the market during 2015, offering an alternative roadmap to low cost IoT connectivity outside of the traditional mobile network environment. At the end of the year, the established players in the telecom industry however took back the initiative. In December 2015, the 3GPP accepted the new NB-IoT standard for lightweight M2M communication based on mobile network infrastructure. The NB-IoT and LTE-M standards will be included in 3GPP Release 13, due for publication in January 2016. Berg Insight believes that the initiative will become successful in establishing a global standard for lightweight IoT communication on public networks in the next 3–5 years. NB-IOT has good prospects of becoming the dominant technology for LPWA, although other standards will most likely also remain strong in niche segments.

About the Author

Tobias Ryberg
is co-founder and principal analyst responsible for the M2M research series. He is an experienced analyst and author of numerous articles and reports about IT and telecom for leading Swedish and international publishers. All major vertical market segments for Wireless M2M/IoT have been his major research area for the past 12 years.

Berg Insight offers premier business intelligence to the telecom industry. We produce concise reports providing key facts and strategic insights about pivotal developments in our focus areas. Berg Insight also offers detailed market forecast databases and advisory services. Our vision is to be the most valuable source of intelligence for our customers.

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