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The Western Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (8 countries) 2015–2020

The Western Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (8 countries) 2015–2020

Revenue in the Western European telecoms market will continue to contract as competitive pressures outweigh the trends towards better-quality products and data-rich bundles. This report examines the impact of these trends in eight countries in Western Europe and the region as a whole.


Executive summary
The Western European telecoms market will decline from EUR billion in to EUR billion in 0
Traditional telecoms revenue streams will suffer further heavy losses, outweighing growth in the mobile and fixed data markets
Fixed and mobile revenue will decline in most countries and regulatory interventions will reduce the revenue boost brought by consolidation
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Geographical coverage: Next-generation services will dominate the mobile and fixed broadband markets of Western Europe by 0
Market context: The Western European telecoms market accounts for an average of of GDP, with monthly retail spend of EURper capita
Revenue and ARPU: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline slowly, driven by market maturity and declining ARPU
Mobile penetration: Total penetration will not grow in most countries, but significant numbers of users will migrate from prepaid to contract plans
Mobile connections: LTE will rapidly become the dominant mobile technology, boosted by the launch of VoLTE services
Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will become the default handset type, with penetration exceeding % of population
Mobile ARPU: Declining prices and competition from OTT services will cause ARPU to continue to fall during the forecast period
Fixed services: The technology mix is evolving rapidly as customers look for faster broadband and operators seek to cut costs
Fixed broadband: Growth is a common factor, but varies by country according to the prevailing market characteristics
Key drivers at a glance for each Western European market
Individual country forecasts
France: Market consolidation should bring stability to telecoms revenue
France – mobile: More smartphones and LTE in the customer base will offset the impact of converged bundles on ARPU
France – fixed: Bundled offers are a key strategy for reducing churn, but broadband ARPU will decline as a result
Germany: Total telecoms service revenue will continue to decrease, driven by a decline in mobile and fixed voice revenue
Germany – mobile: Quadruple-play offers will put pressure on handset ARPU, and drive users from prepaid to contract deals
Germany – fixed: Bundling will reduce broadband ARPU, but the decline will be limited by operators competing on network quality
Italy: Telecoms service revenue will continue to decline albeit
at a slower rate than previously
Italy – mobile: LTE gained strength in and the potential merger of Italia and Wind may ease price competition 
Italy – fixed: Pay-TV content agreements and NGA may make the broadband market more dynamic, but penetration will lag behind
Spain: Telecoms revenue will decline more slowly than in the past as in-market consolidation, LTE and fibre will ease ARPU pressure
Spain – mobile: ARPU will be more resilient as LTE gains momentum and fixed–mobile bundles may reduce churn
Spain – fixed: In-market consolidation, fibre deployment and fixed–mobile bundles will make the fixed market very dynamic
Sweden: Despite a strong performance in total revenue
will decline slowly from as new service growth slows
Sweden – mobile: ARPU grew in because many customers upgraded to contract plans, but this effect will decline from 5
Sweden – fixed: FTTH/B will account for more than half of fixed broadband households, but ASPU will continue to be eroded
UK: Total revenue will continue to decline slowly because growth from new services will be undermined by bundling discounts
UK – mobile: The pending mergers of BT and EE, and Three and O will alter the competitive landscape significantly
UK – fixed: Investments in NGA infrastructure will drive take-up of fixed broadband, but bundling will put pressure on ASPU
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About Analysys Mason
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 0
Figure Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 0
Figure Telecoms retail revenue growth by type ( and market size by total retail revenue (, by country, Western Europe
Figure Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
Figure Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Western Europe, 0
Figure Metrics for eight of the countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 4
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 0
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 0
Figure Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 0
Figure Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M), Western Europe, 0
Figure Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M), and and ’s share of connections, Western Europe, 0
Figure Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M), Western Europe, and 0
Figure Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 0
Figure Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Western Europe, 0
Figure Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Western Europe, 0
Figure Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Western Europe, 0
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), France, 0
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, France, 0
Figure Connections by type, and growth rates, France, 0
Figure Mobile, smartphone and penetration rates, France, 0
Figure Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, France, 0
Figure Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, France
Figure Fixed penetration rates by service type, France, 0
Figure Fixed ASPU by service type, France, 0
Figure Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, France
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Germany, 0
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Germany, 0
Figure Connections by type, and growth rates, Germany, nbsp;
Figure Mobile, smartphone and penetration rates, Germany, 0
Figure Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Germany, 0
Figure Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Germany
Figure Fixed penetration rates by service type, Germany, 0
Figure Fixed ASPU by service type, Germany, 0
Figure Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Germany
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Italy, 0
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Italy, 0
Figure Connections by type, and growth rates, Italy, 0
Figure Mobile, smartphone and penetration rates, Italy, 0
Figure Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Italy, 0
Figure Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Italy
Figure Fixed penetration rates by service type, Italy, 0
Figure Fixed ASPU by service type, Italy, 0
Figure Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Italy
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Spain, 0
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Spain, nbsp;
Figure Connections by type, and growth rates, Spain, 0
Figure Mobile, smartphone and penetration rates, Spain, 0
Figure Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Spain, 0
Figure Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Spain
Figure Fixed penetration rates by service type, Spain, 0
Figure Fixed ASPU by service type, Spain, 0
Figure Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Spain
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sweden, 0
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sweden, 0
Figure Connections by type, and growth rates, Sweden, 0
Figure Mobile, smartphone and penetration rates, Sweden, 0
Figure Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Sweden, 0
Figure Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sweden
Figure Fixed penetration rates by service type, Sweden, 0
Figure Fixed ASPU by service type, Sweden, 0
Figure Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Sweden
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UK, 0
Figure Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UK, 0
Figure Connections by type, and growth rates, UK, 0
Figure Mobile, smartphone and penetration rates, UK, 0
Figure Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UK, 0
Figure Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UK
Figure Fixed penetration rates by service type, UK, 0
Figure Fixed ASPU by service type, UK, 0
Figure Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UK

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