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The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: interim forecast update 2014–2019

The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: interim forecast update 2014–2019

We have revised our telecoms service revenue forecast for the region throughout the forecast period to reflect the strong growth in smartphone take-up as well as a faster-than-expected erosion of voice and messaging revenue. The steep currency depreciation of the South African Rand compared with the US dollar in 2013 also caused a reduction of our historical regional revenue (and forecasts).


Executive summary
Sub-Saharan Africa’s telecoms market offers strong growth opportunities, mostly in mobile – total service revenue will reach USD62 billion by 2019
Handset data and mobile voice services will account for 94% of retail revenue growth between 2013 and 2019
Smartphones will account for 29% of handsets in the region by 2019 because LTE will be limited to high-value users, except in South Africa
Key regional changes since our previous forecast: We have revised down our revenue forecasts because of currency depreciation
Forecast revision: Revenue revised down in 2013 and 2018, mainly due to currency fluctuations in South Africa, but growth is almost unchanged
Individual country forecasts
Côte d’Ivoire: Telecoms service revenue will reach XOF1.1trillion by 2019, driven by mobile voice and handset data services
Ghana: Revenue forecast revised down because mobile voice and messaging revenue will decline faster than expected
Kenya: Strong competition is eroding mobile voice revenue faster than expected and we revised down our LTE forecast
Nigeria: Service revenue in 2018 is unchanged – slower mobile voice growth offset our upward revision of fixed broadband
South Africa: MTR cuts are affecting mobile voice revenue forecasts and LTE adoption is slow because spectrum is limited
Sudan: Revenue forecast unchanged, but negative macroeconomic conditions may threaten growth of the mobile market
Tanzania: Revenue forecast revised down because we reduced rates of mobile voice and fixed broadband revenue growth
Uganda: Our forecast remains unchanged – service revenue will exceed UGX4 trillion by 2019, driven by handset data services
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About the authors
About Analysys Mason
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009–2019
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2019
Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013 and 2019
Figure 5: Summary of major changes compared with our July 2014 forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013 and 2018
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2018
Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2018
Figure 9: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Côte d’Ivoire, 2009–2019
Figure 10: Summary of key telecoms market drivers and assumptions, Côte d’Ivoire
Figure 11: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2009–2019
Figure 12: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Ghana
Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2009–2019
Figure 14: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Kenya
Figure 15: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2009–2019
Figure 16: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Nigeria
Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2009–2019
Figure 18: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, South Africa
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Sudan, 2009–2019
Figure 20: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Sudan
Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2009–2019
Figure 22: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Tanzania
Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2009–2019
Figure 24: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Uganda

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