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The Smartphones in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

The Smartphones in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

Emerging Asia–Pacific will provide the largest increase in smartphone sales between 2015 and 2020 compared to all other regions in the world. This report provides forecasts for smartphone sales in the region and an explanation of key trends that affect these projections.


Executive summary
Executive summary: First-time buyers will drive smartphone sales growth
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: Smartphone markets are saturating – operators and vendors must reassess their priorities
Worldwide: Growth in unit sales will depend on emerging markets and will come mostly from emerging Asia–Pacific
Worldwide: Operators are key sources of smartphones in most regions, but they lost some ground to other channels in 2015
Worldwide: Vendor financing is the end-point of gradual shifts in operator device strategies rather than an abrupt change
Worldwide: Vendor financing plans are most likely to succeed in countries where users are ready for SIM-only contracts
Worldwide: Operator bundles are in demand and play a role in
prepaid-to-postpaid migration
Worldwide: Apple leads the high-end market and Chinese vendors are capturing demand at the low end
Worldwide: iOS’s market share of unit sales will remain stable at around 15% until 2020
Regional trends
Emerging Asia–Pacific: Low penetration rates and demand for mobile data usage will boost smartphone sales
Emerging Asia–Pacific: Key regional trends
Emerging Asia–Pacific: Operators have a peripheral role as smartphone distribution channels in Southeast Asia
Country-level trends
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About Analysys Mason
List of figures
Figure 1: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2020
Figure 2: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012–2020
Figure 3: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2014 and 2020
Figure 4: Percentage of respondents who bought their most recent handset from an operator, 16 countries, and averages for 2014 and 2015
Figure 5: Device bundling and financing plans by type
Figure 6: Seven areas of consideration for operators when assessing the potential impact of SIM-only and vendor financing take-up
Figure 7: Choice of next mobile tariff by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 6 European countries, US and South Korea
Figure 8: Choice of next mobile tariff by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 8 countries in MEA and emerging APAC
Figure 9: Smartphone unit sales by manufacturer, worldwide, 2012–2020
Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2012–2020
Figure 11: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2020
Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2020
Figure 13: Key regional trends in handset markets, emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 14: Operators as a channel for most recent handset purchase, by country, 2015
Figure 15: Intention to replace current smartphone within 1 year, by device age and country
Figure 16: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, China, 2012–2020
Figure 17: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, India, 2012–2020
Figure 18: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Indonesia, 2012–2020
Figure 19: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share in total handset sales, Malaysia, 2012–2020
Figure 20: Main enablers and constraints for our smartphone forecasts

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