Pay-TV services worldwide: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
IP enablement will drive growth in the number of pay-TV connections worldwide; IPTV and operator OTT video will account for 48% of all pay-TV connections by 2024. This report provides an outlook for pay-TV and operator OTT video services over the next 5 years.
- Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
- Worldwide: the COVID-19 pandemic will have a minor, short-term effect on the traditional pay-TV market, but may lead to more cord-cutting in the medium term
- Worldwide: emerging Asia–Pacific will have the highest IPTV share of traditional pay-TV connections of all regions in 2024, largely due to China
- Worldwide: growth in operator OTT revenue will not offset the losses in traditional pay-TV services revenue caused by ASPU erosion
- Worldwide: IP enablement will drive growth in the number of pay-TV connections; IPTV and operator OTT services will account for 48% of pay-TV connections by 2024
- Worldwide: traditional pay-TV penetration will fall the fastest in North America, but cord-cutting will also become more prevalent in other regions
- Regional trends
- Western Europe: operators will continue to move towards OTT video; operator OTT connections will exceed those from DTH by 2024
- Western Europe: the number of IPTV and operator OTT service subscriptions will increase, offsetting declines in the number of cable, DTH and pay-DTT subscriptions
- Western Europe: growth in operator OTT service revenue varies significantly by country, depending on the strength of the competition from third-party OTT players
- Central and Eastern Europe: retail revenue will grow robustly, despite the impact of low-priced traditional pay-TV services and widespread piracy
- Central and Eastern Europe: the number of IPTV connections will grow slightly, but operator OTT video services will account for most of the user base growth
- Central and Eastern Europe: penetration of operator OTT services will grow rapidly from a small base; Turkey will continue to distort the picture at the regional level
- Middle East and North Africa: significant ASPU erosion will be counterbalanced by growth in the number of operator OTT and traditional pay-TV subscribers
- Middle East and North Africa: the number of satellite subscribers has grown despite piracy; the number of IPTV connections will grow the most during the forecast period
- Middle East and North Africa: the take-up of traditional pay-TV and operator OTT services will be stimulated by declining prices and reduced piracy
- Sub-Saharan Africa: satellite will continue to account for the vast majority of traditional pay-TV connections due to the limited footprint of wired infrastructure
- Sub-Saharan Africa: expansions in wireless infrastructure coverage will drive a surge in the number of OTT video users, though only some will use operators’ services
- Sub-Saharan Africa: the three main traditional pay-TV providers will continue to dominate the market during the forecast period
- Emerging Asia–Pacific: retail revenue growth for traditional pay-TV services will be dwarfed by the USD14.6 billion growth in OTT video retail revenue
- Emerging Asia–Pacific: customers will migrate away from cable and satellite and towards IPTV; new pay-TV users will primarily use IPTV
- Emerging Asia–Pacific: the take-up of traditional pay-TV and operator-OTT services will vary widely by country; ASPU will remain limited by abundant free services
- Developed Asia–Pacific: operator OTT services will contribute to overall retail revenue growth for pay-TV providers’ services between 2019 and 2024
- Developed Asia–Pacific: pay-TV providers and operators will offset the decline in the number of cable and satellite subscriptions by gaining IPTV and OTT users
- Developed Asia–Pacific: operator OTT services will continue to gain subscribers in most markets; South Korean users will favour traditional pay-TV
- North America: the total revenue from pay-TV services will decline by 21% between 2019 and 2024 due to a large fall in the number of subscribers
- North America: the number of traditional pay-TV connections will fall by 18 million, only slightly mediated by growth in the number of operator OTT connections
- North America: the penetration of operator OTT services will grow considerably faster in Canada than in the USA
- Latin America: total pay-TV revenue will decline by 22% between 2019 and 2024, mainly due to piracy and OTT migration
- Latin America: growth in the number of operator OTT and IPTV subscribers will not outweigh the strong decline in the number of satellite subscribers until 2023
- Latin America: pay-TV players’ retail revenue from OTT services will grow, but it will still only account for a small share of their total revenue
- Forecast methodology and assumptions
- Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
- How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
- Further definitions
- About the authors and Analysys Mason
- About the authors [1/2]
- About the authors [2/2]
- Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
- Research from Analysys Mason
- Consulting from Analysys Mason
- List of figures:
- Figure 1: Annual growth in operator retail revenue from TV and video services, by COVID-19 scenario, worldwide, 2019–2020
- Figure 2: IPTV share of traditional pay-TV connections and the number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, worldwide by region, 2024
- Figure 3: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, worldwide, 2016–2024
- Figure 4: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2019–2024
- Figure 5: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2019–2024
- Figure 6: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, worldwide, 2016–2024
- Figure 7: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, by region, 2016–2024
- Figure 8: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, by region, 2016–2024
- Figure 9: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, WE, 2016–2024
- Figure 10: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, WE, 2019–2024
- Figure 11: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, WE, 2019–2024
- Figure 12: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, WE, 2016–2024
- Figure 13a: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, WE, 2016–2024
- Figure 13b: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, WE, 2016–2024
- Figure 14: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, CEE, 2016–2024
- Figure 15: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, CEE, 2019–2024
- Figure 16: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, CEE, 2019–2024
- Figure 17: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, CEE, 2016–2024
- Figure 18: NBED
- Figure 19: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, MENA, 2016–2024
- Figure 20: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, MENA, 2019–2024
- Figure 21: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, MENA, 2019–2024
- Figure 22: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, MENA, 2016–2024
- Figure 23: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, MENA, 2016–2024
- Figure 24: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, MENA, 2016–2024
- Figure 25: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, SSA, 2016–2024
- Figure 26: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, SSA, 2019–2024
- Figure 27: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, SSA, 2019–2024
- Figure 28: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, SSA, 2016–2024
- Figure 29: Household penetration of pay-TV and operator OTT services, by access technology, SSA, 2016–2024
- Figure 30: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, EMAP, 2016–20242
- Figure 31: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, EMAP, 2019–2024
- Figure 32: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, EMAP, 2019–2024
- Figure 33: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, EMAP, 2016–2024
- Figure 34: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, EMAP, 2016–2024
- Figure 35: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, EMAP, 2016–2024
- Figure 36: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, DVAP, 2016–2024
- Figure 37: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, DVAP, 2019–2024
- Figure 38: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, DVAP, 2019–2024
- Figure 39: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, DVAP, 2016–2024
- Figure 40: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, DVAP, 2016–2024
- Figure 41: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, DVAP, 2016–2024
- Figure 42: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, NA, 2016–2024
- Figure 43: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, NA, 2019–2024
- Figure 44: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, NA, 2019–2024
- Figure 45: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, NA, 2016–2024
- Figure 46: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, NA, 2016–2024
- Figure 47: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, NA, 2016–2024
- Figure 48: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, LATAM, 2016–2024
- Figure 49: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, LATAM, 2019–2024
- Figure 50: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, LATAM, 2019–2024
- Figure 51: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, LATAM, 2016–2024
- Figure 52: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, LATAM, 2016–2024
- Figure 53: Scope of our spend forecasts
Research Assistance
Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research
Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.
Download eBook