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The Pay TV and OTT video in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

The Pay TV and OTT video in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Retail revenue growth in the pay-TV market in MENA conceals longer-term issues with average spend, piracy and the use of OTT video services. This forecast unites our traditional pay-TV and OTT video forecasts for MENA into a single forecast because these services cannot be viewed in isolation.

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Executive summary
Retail revenue growth in the pay-TV market in MENA conceals longer-term issues with average spend, piracy and the use of OTT video services
Satellite revenue growth has stalled but IPTV continues to gain subscribers and value; the OTT opportunity (as well as satellite) is stymied by piracy
Regional trends
Geographical coverage: Qatar has the highest pay-TV and OTT video penetration, but the most-notable absolute revenue growth can be seen in Saudi Arabia
The revenue for both traditional pay-TV and operator-delivered OTT services will continue to grow in MENA, but this will be at the expense of ASPU
OTT video use will continue to grow from a relatively limited base: spend will double between 2018 and 2023 and linear services will take a growing share
The IPTV share of pay-TV users will grow from 33% in 2018 to 43% by 2023
OTT is not just about VoD; OTT linear services, especially those from operators, are a growing part of the market
Country-level trends
Oman: Omantel’s IPTV service will account for almost half of all traditional pay-TV connections by 2023
Oman: connectivity, payment methods and piracy continue to constrain OTT take-up, but operator partnerships and initiatives, will help to boost OTT use
Qatar: Ooredoo’s IPTV set-top box is a hub for OTT service bundling
Qatar: SVoD revenue is beyond its most-rapid growth phase, though partnerships with operators may yield further growth
Saudi Arabia: a shift to illegal international football content viewing has led to falling (legal) retail revenue, but STC’s IPTV service will encourage growth
Saudi Arabia: STC and OSN’s launch of multi-channel linear OTT pay-TV packages will allow OTT video use to match that of traditional pay TV by 2023
UAE: IPTV-based bundles from Etisalat and du will continue to dominate the market
UAE: pay-TV providers have embraced OTT as an extra option alongside wholesaling their channels to competitors, leading to strong revenue growth
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
Further definitions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures:
Figure 1: Traditional pay TV and OTT retail revenue and ASPU, MENA, 2015–2023
Figure 2: Pay-TV and OTT video retail revenue growth by service type, MENA, 2018–2023
Figure 3: Contribution of traditional pay TV and OTT video to the total change in retail revenue in MENA, 2018–2023
Figure 4: Household penetration of pay TV and the population penetration of operator OTT by country, MENA, 2023
Figure 5: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, MENA, 2015–2023
Figure 6: Pay-TV spend and CAGRs by service type, MENA, 2018–2023
Figure 7: Pay-TV connections and CAGRs by service type, MENA, 2018–2023
Figure 8: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, MENA, 2015–2023
Figure 9: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, MENA, 2018–2023
Figure 10: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, MENA, 2018–2023
Figure 11: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, MENA, 2015–2023
Figure 12: OTT video users by business model, MENA, 2015–2023
Figure 13: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Oman, 2015–2023
Figure 14: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Oman, 2015–2023
Figure 15: Number of users by service type, Oman, 2015–2023
Figure 16: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Qatar, 2015–2023
Figure 17: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Qatar, 2015–2023
Figure 18: Number of users by service type, Qatar, 2015–2023
Figure 19: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Saudi Arabia, 2015–2023
Figure 20: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Saudi Arabia, 2015–2023
Figure 21: Number of users by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2015–2023
Figure 22: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, UAE, 2015–2023
Figure 23: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, UAE, 2015–2023
Figure 24: Number of users by service type, UAE, 2015–2023
Figure 25: Scope of our spend forecasts

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