OTT video worldwide: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
The total spend on OTT video services will almost double between 2019 and 2024, from USD67 billion to USD130 billion. The increased adoption of subscription video on demand (SVoD) will be the main driver of this growth and will be boosted by the change in user behaviour following the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Executive summary
- The total spend on OTT video services worldwide will almost double between 2019 and 2024, from USD67 billion to USD130 billion
- The COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a significant shift in the OTT video narrative; increased viewership will generate an extra USD8 billion in retail revenue in 2020
- SVoD will account for the majority of new revenue growth between 2019 and 2024
- Service stacking will be boosted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which will in turn boost ASPU growth for most regions
- Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
- Worldwide: the paid-for OTT video household penetration will exceed 80% by 2024 in North America and developed Asia–Pacific
- Worldwide: the total spend on OTT video services worldwide will almost double between 2019 and 2024, from USD67 billion to USD130 billion
- Worldwide: the total number of unique OTT users will reach 1.16 billion in 2024, most of which will subscribe to at least one SVoD service
- Worldwide: SVoD will continue to be the main driver of OTT user base growth; the number of paying SVoD users will increase by 350 million between 2019 and 2024
- Worldwide: the pandemic will boost TVoD retail revenue
- Worldwide: linear OTT video services will be the worst hit by the pandemic and prospects look uncertain
- Worldwide: operator OTT and third-party OTT video revenue will grow at a CAGR of 22–23% between 2016 and 2024
- Regional trends
- Western Europe: OTT video services retail revenue will almost double between 2019 and 2024; the bulk of this continues to be from SVoD services
- Western Europe: SVoD take-up will continue to increase rapidly, but linear channel subscriptions will also be increasingly popular
- Western Europe: the region will remain characterised by a wide variance in premium OTT service penetration
- Central and Eastern Europe: OTT video retail revenue is constrained by low-priced traditional services and high levels of piracy
- Central and Eastern Europe: OTT video take-up is increasing; subscriber base and revenue growth for linear channel services will keep pace with that for SVoD
- Central and Eastern Europe: penetration of premium OTT video is low in most countries; Turkey is a notable exception
- Middle East and North Africa: most retail revenue growth will come from SVoD services; ASPU will plummet thanks to the heavy use of free trials
- Middle East and North Africa: SVoD services will remain the most-popular form of OTT video in MENA, though free trials continue to be common
- Middle East and North Africa: premium OTT services will remain relegated to a minority of households in most countries
- Sub-Saharan Africa: the number of OTT video users and the OTT video revenue will grow rapidly, albeit from a small base
- Sub-Saharan Africa: rising disposable incomes and a robust increase in telecoms service penetration will generate strong growth in demand for video content
- China: SVoD will continue to dominate the OTT video segment
- China: BAT has successfully boosted the number of paying subscribers to its OTT video services; the total number of OTT video users will reach 397 million by 2024
- EMAP excl. China: OTT video retail revenue will be dominated by SVoD because many linear services are being bundled free of charge
- EMAP excl. China: SVoD will continue to account for the majority of users, but the number of linear content users will grow rapidly from a smaller base
- Emerging Asia–Pacific: premium OTT penetration will grow significantly in most countries during the forecast period
- Developed Asia–Pacific: OTT video retail revenue growth will continue to be driven by SVoD services in most countries
- Developed Asia–Pacific: the OTT video market in developed Asia–Pacific is dominated by Japan
- Developed Asia–Pacific: third-party OTT video will account for most of the growth in the number of premium OTT video service subscribers during the forecast period
- North America: revenue from OTT video services will grow by 64% between 2019 and 2024, driven mainly by an increase in SVoD service take-up
- North America: SVoD will continue to dominate the OTT segment in the region due to strong content investments by large OTT players
- Geographical coverage: OTT video service penetration is high in both Canada and the USA, but linear services and TVoD services are much less popular in the USA
- Latin America: SVoD will account for nearly 90% of the total OTT video spend in the region, the majority of which will come from Netflix
- Latin America: the OTT market will continue to be SVoD-centric: the number of SVoD users will grow by 84% between 2019 and 2024
- Geographical coverage: OTT video household penetration in Latin America is expected to grow from 20% in 2019 to 34% in 2024
- Forecast methodology and assumptions
- Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
- How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
- About the authors and Analysys Mason
- About the authors [1/2]
- About the authors [2/2]
- Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
- Research from Analysys Mason
- Consulting from Analysys Mason
- List of figures:
- Figure 1: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, 2016–2024
- Figure 2: The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional OTT video revenue
- Figure 3: Growth in OTT video retail revenue and the number of OTT users, and ASPU, by worldwide region, 2019–2024
- Figure 4: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, by region, worldwide, 2024
- Figure 5: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, 2016–2024
- Figure 6: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2019–2024
- Figure 7: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2019–2024
- Figure 8: OTT video users by service type, worldwide, 2016–2024
- Figure 9: Distribution of paying SVoD users by region, worldwide, 2019–2024
- Figure 10: OTT TVoD retail revenue by region, worldwide, 2016–2024
- Figure 11a: Household penetration of linear OTT services by region, regions with a pre-pandemic forecast, 2016–2024
- Figure 11b: Household penetration of linear OTT services by region, regions with a pandemic forecast, 2016–2024
- Figure 12: Retail revenue from operator OTT and third-party OTT video services, worldwide, 2016–2024
- Figure 13: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Western Europe, 2016–2024
- Figure 14: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2019–2024
- Figure 15: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2019–2024
- Figure 16: OTT video users by service type, Western Europe, 2016–2024
- Figure 17: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Western Europe, 2024
- Figure 18: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2024
- Figure 19: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2019–2024
- Figure 20: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2019–2024
- Figure 21: OTT video users by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2024
- Figure 22: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Central and Eastern Europe, 2024
- Figure 23: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2024
- Figure 24: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2019–2024
- Figure 25: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2019–2024
- Figure 26: OTT video users by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2024
- Figure 27: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Middle East and North Africa, 2024
- Figure 28: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2024
- Figure 29: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2019–2024
- Figure 30: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2019–2024
- Figure 31: OTT video users by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2024
- Figure 32: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, China, 2016–2024
- Figure 33: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, China, 2019–2024
- Figure 34: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, China, 2019–2024
- Figure 35: OTT video users by service type, China, 2016–2024
- Figure 36: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2016–2024
- Figure 37: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2019–2024
- Figure 38: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2019–2024
- Figure 39: OTT video users by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2016–2024
- Figure 40: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2024
- Figure 41: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2024
- Figure 42: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2019–2024
- Figure 43: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2019–2024
- Figure 44: OTT video users by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2024
- Figure 45: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration premium OTT video users, developed Asia–Pacific, 2024
- Figure 46: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, North America, 2016–2024
- Figure 47: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, North America, 2019–2024
- Figure 48: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, North America, 2019–2024
- Figure 49: OTT video users by service type, North America, 2016–2024
- Figure 50: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, North America, 2024
- Figure 51: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Latin America, 2016–2024
- Figure 52: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Latin America, 2019–2024
- Figure 53: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Latin America, 2019–2024
- Figure 54: OTT video users by service type, Latin America, 2016–2024
- Figure 55: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Latin America, 2024
- Figure 56: Scope of our premium OTT video spend forecasts
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