Market Research Logo

The North America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

The North America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

Competition in the US mobile market, and its absence from the US fixed market, will produce a flat revenue trend during the forecast period. The Canadian telecoms market will experience overall growth, but due to its relative size, this will not compensate for a decline in the US mobile market. This report examines key trends and drivers and provides telecoms market forecasts for the region and for the two individual countries.

 

This report provides:

§a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America (NA) as a whole and two key countries
§an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
§an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
§a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led research programmes and our consulting division, as well as external interviews.

In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).



Please note: this report is delivered as a zip file (PPTX, PDF and Excel)


Executive summary

Telecoms revenue in North America will be stagnant due to a declining US mobile market

The lack of a disrupting operator will support faster growth in Canada

Geographical coverage: The USA accounts for 90% of the regional revenue total

Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in North America

Key recommendations for telecoms operators

Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

Market context: Both countries’ economies are expected to grow at a steady rate

Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries

Key drivers at a glance for each North America market

Market overview: A declining US mobile market will prevent total revenue growth

Mobile: User base will grow across the region, both in prepaid and postpaid segments

Mobile: Competition will drive down ARPU in the USA, but not in Canada

Mobile: North America will be at the forefront of new technology adoption

Fixed: Broadband penetration will grow slowly due to saturation

Fixed: Broadband price growth shows few signs of slowing down
Fixed: Regional monopolistic/duopolistic market structure and upselling to faster speeds will continue to support broadband ASPU growth
Business services: Telecoms operators will only capture a small proportion of the enterprise software market
IoT: The automotive segment will be the largest single contributor to IoT revenue
Individual country forecasts
Canada: Telecoms revenue will grow thanks to user base and ARPU growth in both fixed and mobile markets
Canada: The overwhelming majority of mobile connections will be on 4G by 2018
Canada: A lack of disruptive operators will support continued revenue growth
Canada: Forecast changes
USA: A declining mobile market and a growing fixed market will combine for a slight decline in total telecoms revenue
USA: Lenient spectrum usage regulation will allow MNOs to shut down legacy technology and focus on 4G and 5G instead
USA: T-Mobile will continue to drive competition in the mobile market
USA: Forecast changes

Methodology

Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the author
 

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, North America, 2012–2022

Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, North America, 2016–2022

Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2016 and 2022

Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America

Figure 5: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2016

Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America

Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017–2022), by country, North America

Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2012–2022

Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2012–2022

Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2012–2022

Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2012–2022

Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2012–2022

Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, North America (USD per month), 2012–2022

Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2012–2022

Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (MB per month), 2012–2022

Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2012–2022

Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2012–2022

Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2012–2022

Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2012–2022

Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2012–2022

Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (MB per month), 2012–2022

Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2012–2022

Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2012–2022

Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, North America, 2012–2022

Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2013–2022

Figure 26: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2012–2022

Figure 27: Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2012–2022

Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2012–2022

Figure 29: Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2012–2022

Figure 30: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2012–2022

Figure 31: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Canada (CAD per month), 2012–2022

Figure 32: Mobile data traffic per connection, Canada (MB per month), 2012–2022

Figure 33: Broadband connections by technology, Canada (million), 2012–2022

Figure 34: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Canada, 2012–2022

Figure 35: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, USA (USD billion), 2012–2022

Figure 36: Mobile connections by type, USA (million), 2012–2022

Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, USA, 2012–2022

Figure 38: Fixed connections by type, USA (million), 2012–2022

Figure 39: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, USA, 2012–2022

Figure 40: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, USA (USD per month), 2012–2022

Figure 41: Mobile data traffic per connection, USA (MB per month), 2012–2022

Figure 42: Broadband connections by technology, USA (million), 2012–2022

Figure 43: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, USA, 2012–2022

Figure 44a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Figure 44b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

 

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook

Share this report