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The Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

The Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2017–2022


We expect mobile service revenue in developed Asia–Pacific will grow steadily due to operators’ continual efforts to improve technology. We examine key trends and drivers in this report, and provide a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the developed Asia–Pacific region and for six individually modelled countries. 

 

This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for developed Asia–Pacific. It includes worldwide context and commentary on six key countries: Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts are informed by a unique, in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (including the reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

 

Geographic Coverage

 

Region modelled:

Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)

Countries modelled individually

Australia

Hong Kong

Japan

Singapore

South Korea

Taiwan

 

Key Metrics

Mobile Connections

Handset, mobile broadband,1 M2M2

Prepaid, contract

2G, 3G, 4G,5G

Smartphone, non-smartphone

 

Mobile Revenue

Mobile Revenue

Service,3 retail

Prepaid, contract

Handset, mobile broadband,1 M2M2

Handset voice, messaging, data

 

Mobile Voice Traffic

Outgoing minutes, MoU

 

Mobile ARPU:

SIMs, handset

Prepaid, contract

Handset voice, data


Who should buy this report:

- Market Intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators in DVAP.
- Regulatory bodies in DVAP.
- Financial Institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector.


Executive summary

Overall telecoms service revenue in developed Asia–Pacific will grow slowly, surpassing USD200 billion in 2022

Worldwide trends

Worldwide: Service revenue will continue to increase over the forecast period, reaching USD863 billion in 2022

Regional trends

Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data and high smartphone penetration will continue to depress voice revenue

Mobile penetration: Active mobile SIM penetration growth in the DVAP region will remain steady, reaching 124% by 2022

Mobile connections: The share of 4G mobile connections will continue to increase until 2019, and then start to decline as it is replaced by 5G

Smartphones and LTE: The smartphone share of total handsets in DVAP reached 71% in 2016 and will surpass 90% in 2022

Mobile broadband: The number of mobile broadband connections in DVAP will reach 22.7 million by 2022, 99% of these will be 4G/5G

Mobile ARPU: mobile ARPU for the DVAP region will grow slowly overall to USD33 per month by the end of the forecast period

Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic will grow steadily, supported by new technologies, to reach 32.5EB in 2022

Country-level trends

Australia – mobile: Termination rate reduction in 2016 will affect service revenue growth in the forecast period

Hong Kong – mobile: Competition will intensify in the mobile market after HKBN’s entrance, resulting in a decline in ARPU

Japan – mobile: Data-centric pricing will drive data revenue growth, compensating for voice and messaging revenue declines

Singapore – mobile: The entrance of a fourth MNO will increase competition and lead to a higher rate of 4G adoption

South Korea – mobile: Connections are expected to be on 4G/5G
by 2022; increasing OTT usage will drive data revenue growth

Taiwan – mobile: Unlimited data plans will lead to high data usage per connection, but will negatively affect revenue growth

About the author and Analysys Mason

About the author

Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

Research from Analysys Mason

Consulting from Analysys Mason

 

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in developed Asia–Pacific and worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 3: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 4: Telecoms mobile retail revenue by service type, total mobile service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022

Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022

Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), developed Asia–Pacific, 2016 and 2022

Figure 9: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 10: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 11: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 12: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 13: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Australia, 2012–2022

Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Australia, 2012–2022

Figure 15: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Australia

Figure 16: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Hong Kong, 2012–2022

Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Hong Kong, 2012–2022

Figure 18: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong

Figure 19: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Japan, 2012–2022

Figure 20: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Japan, 2012–2022

Figure 21: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Japan

Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Singapore, 2012–2022

Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Singapore, 2012–2022

Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Singapore

Figure 25: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Korea, 2012–2022

Figure 26: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Korea, 2012–2022

Figure 27: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Korea

Figure 28: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Taiwan, 2012–2022

Figure 29: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Taiwan, 2012–2022

Figure 30: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan

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