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The Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

The Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

The Western European mobile market continues to mature and is becoming increasingly data-centric. 83% of mobile connections will be 4G by 2022.
 
We examine key trends and drivers and provide a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the region and for 16 individually modelled countries in this report


Executive summary
Revenue trends are improving in many countries, but mobile revenue will continue to decline

Worldwide trends

Worldwide: Mobile service revenue will continue to increase in the forecast period, reaching USD863 billion in 2022

Regional trends

Data revenue will continue to increase, but mobile revenue will be driven by declining traditional service revenue

Penetration: User bases will be stagnant, but additional SIMs bundled in contracts will limit decline

Connections: Spectrum refarming will help 4G growth, but large-scale decommissioning of legacy networks is unlikely

Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will exceed 90% penetration in most countries by 2020

Mobile broadband: Smartphone tethering and lack of interest in connected tablets will drive decline in dedicated data connections

ARPU: ARPU will continue to fall in most countries, and EU regulations will have a negative impact on profitability
Data and revenue by generation: Unlimited tariffs, net neutrality-skirting offers, and roaming rate cuts will drive data usage

Country-level trends

France: Growing 4G penetration will drive data consumption and slow down the decline in mobile retail revenue

Germany: Revenue will grow, but at a very slow pace

Italy: The arrival of Iliad will drive down handset ASPU

Spain: Content services and increasing LTE population coverage will keep handset data revenue growth

UK: The prospect of Brexit adds uncertainty to the economic outlook

About the author and Analysys Mason

About the author

Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

Research from Analysys Mason

Consulting from Analysys Mason


 

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2012–2022

Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in Western Europe and worldwide,
2012–2022

Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2012–2022

Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2016–2022

Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2016–2022

Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2012–2022

Figure 7: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2012–2022

Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, Western Europe, 2012–2022

Figure 9: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2016 and 2022

Figure 10: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Western Europe, 2012–2022

Figure 11: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2012–2022

Figure 12: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Western Europe, 2012–2022

Figure 13: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Western Europe,
2012–2022

Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, France,
2012–2022

Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, France, 2012–2022

Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, France

Figure 17: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Germany,
2012–2022

Figure 18: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Germany, 2012–2022

Figure 19: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Germany

Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Italy, 2012–2022

Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Italy, 2012–2022

Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Italy

Figure 23: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Spain,
2012–2022

Figure 24: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Spain, 2012–2022

Figure 25: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Spain

Figure 26: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UK, 2012–2022

Figure 27: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UK, 2012–2022

Figure 28: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UK

 

 

 

 

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