The Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

This report analyses the most important trends and drivers that are affecting mobile telecoms services in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and examines the impact that these trends will have during the next 5 years. It includes country views for Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda

Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: mobile service revenue will increase during the forecast period, but there will be significant differences in terms of revenue growth across regions
Regional trends
Mobile: mobile data services will drive revenue growth but mobile voice will continue to be a key contributor to service revenue
Mobile: 3G will become the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for 16.9% of mobile connections in 2023; 5G is expected to launch in 2020
Mobile: penetration will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition, but growth will slow down due to declining multi-SIM levels
Mobile: spending on non-voice services will help to slow down the ARPU decline in most countries in SSA; ARPU in Sudan will increase due to inflation
Mobile: SIM penetration growth rates will drop to single digits in most markets despite the sustained demand for mobile services
Country-level trends
Ghana: non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite the modest growth in the number of SIMs
Kenya: there are solid revenue growth prospects for mobile money and data services. The adoption of 4G will accelerate over the forecast period
Nigeria: there is room for mobile revenue growth despite the crowded market and difficult economic conditions
South Africa: there will be sustained growth in the mobile market thanks to a strengthening economy and improved network coverage
Tanzania: the mobile market offers growth opportunities despite intense competition. Regulator awarded spectrum suitable for 4G in 1H 2018
Uganda: mobile revenue growth will be moderate and handset data revenue will be the main contributor to this growth
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers

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