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The Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

The Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2017–2022


We expect mobile retail revenue to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa during the next 5 years, to reach USD857 billion in 2022, amidst regulatory and macroeconomic challenges. This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecasts for the region.

This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It includes worldwide context and commentary on six key countries: Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda.

In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts are informed by a unique, in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (including the reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).




GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

KEY METRICS

Region modelled:

§Sub-Saharan Africa

 

Countries modelled individually:

§Cameroon

§Côte d’Ivoire

§Ghana

§Kenya

§Nigeria

§Rwanda

§South Africa

§Sudan

§Tanzania

§Uganda

§Zambia

 

Detailed country commentary for:

§Ghana

§Kenya

§Nigeria

§South Africa

§Tanzania

§Uganda

 

Mobile connections

§Handset,mobile broadband,1M2M2

§Prepaid, contract

§2G, 3G, 4G,5G

§Smartphone, non-smartphone

 

Mobile revenue

§Service,3retail

§Prepaid, contract

§Handset,mobile broadband,1M2M2

§Handset voice, messaging, data

 

Mobile voice traffic

§Outgoing minutes,MoU

 

Mobile ARPU:

§SIMs, handset

§Prepaid, contract

§Handset voice, data

 


Executive summary

Service revenue will grow at a 2.7% CAGR during 2016–2022 to USD45.2 billion amidst regulatory and macroeconomic challenges

Worldwide trends

Worldwide: Mobile service revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period, reaching USD857 billion in 2022

Regional trends

Mobile data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate

Connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition – but growth will slow down

2G will remain the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for only 11.7% of mobile connections in 2022

South Africa will have the highest mobile 4G and smartphone share of handsets by 2022 – at 31.3% and 73.6%, respectively

Mobile connectivity has been central to tablet adoption, but substitution from smartphones and Wi-Fi will increase

Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most countries in SSA

Improved network coverage, affordability of smartphones and price reductions are helping drive usage

Country-level trends

Ghana: Non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite modest growth in terms of SIMs

Kenya: Demand for data and mobile financial services will encourage the continued growth of connections and revenue

Nigeria: Strong subscriber growth against the backdrop of weak economic outlook which will impact consumer spend

South Africa: The release of LTE spectrum will improve competition while economic difficulties will weaken demand

Tanzania: Rising smartphone take-up, 700MHz auction spectrum and mobile money will support revenue growth

Uganda: The shift from voice to data usage will be accompanied by revenue growth, despite low adoption of 4G

About the author and Analysys Mason

About the author

About Analysys Mason

 

List of figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in the Sub-Saharan Africa and worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 3: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 4: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2022

Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2022

Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016 and 2022

Figure 9: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 10: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 11: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–

Figure 12: Data traffic (MB) and revenue per gigabyte, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 13: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Ghana, 2012–2022

Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Ghana, 2012–2022

Figure 15: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Ghana

Figure 16: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kenya, 2012–2022

Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kenya, 2012–2022

Figure 18: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kenya

Figure 19: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Nigeria, 2012–2022

Figure 20: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Nigeria, 2012–2022

Figure 21: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Nigeria

Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Africa

Figure 25: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Tanzania, 2012–2022

Figure 26: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tanzania, 2012–2022

Figure 27: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tanzania

Figure 28: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Uganda, 2012–2022

Figure 29: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Uganda, 2012–2022

Figure 30: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Uganda

 

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