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The Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021

The Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021

We anticipate moderate growth for telecoms services revenue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Demand will be tempered by a weaker macroeconomic outlook, fierce competition, and increased political instability in some countries. This report provides an interim update of our 5-year forecast of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for MENA as a whole and for 12 key countries.


Executive summary and regional forecasts
The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD78.2 billion in 2021, against the backdrop of a weaker macroeconomic outlook
Smartphones and 4G/5G: The 4G+ user base in the region will reach 147.5 million in 2021, with growing opportunities for data monetisation
Fixed services: The broadband market will grow in most countries, driven by upgrades to access technology and greenfield infrastructure deployment
Key regional changes since our previous forecast: fixed broadband has been revised up, while demand for mobile services will be weaker
Forecast revision: A decline in mobile connections will be offset by increase in demand for mobile handset data and fixed broadband
Individual country forecasts
Iran: Lifting of sanctions will encourage investment while MVNOs’ entry is expected to increase competition in the mobile market
Kuwait: Mobile growth will be hampered by market saturation and ARPU erosion; fixed market has potential, but is yet to be unlocked
Oman: A third MNO will increase mobile connections, but could erode market value; the outlook for fibre is more positive
Qatar: Our fixed and mobile broadband forecasts have been revised up slightly to reflect stronger-than-expected demand
Saudi Arabia: Biometric user registration and new MTR cuts will have an adverse impact on mobile revenue growth prospects
UAE: We expect a slightly more positive outlook for mobile revenue, driven by demand for data and stronger smartphone adoption
ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON
About the authors
About Analysys Mason
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures:
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021
Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of total connections (excluding IoT), Middle East and North Africa, 2015 and 2021
Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021
Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Middle East and North Africa
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue forecast by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2016 and 2021
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015 and 2021
Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015 and 2021
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Iran, 2011–2021
Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Iran
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Kuwait, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Kuwait
Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Oman, 2011–2021
Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Oman
Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Qatar, 2011–2021
Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Qatar
Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2011–2021
Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Saudi Arabia
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, UAE, 2011–2021
Figure 19: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, UAE

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