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The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

Latin America's telecoms market offers significant growth opportunities for operators as LTE gains momentum and intense M&A activity drives dynamism and competition in most markets. Service revenue will reach USD140 billion by 2020. This report provides our telecoms forecasts through 2020 as well as an explanation of the main drivers and assumptions.


Executive summary
Latin America's telecoms market offers significant growth opportunities for operators – service revenue will reach USD140 billion by 2020
Mobile handset data services will be the largest source of retail revenue growth in LATAM between 2014 and 2020, followed by fixed broadband
Telecoms retail revenue will grow in all markets between 2014 and 2020, although regulatory activity will constrain growth in Chile and Mexico
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Geographical coverage: We model the seven largest markets, which account for about 90% of Latin America's total telecoms service revenue
Market context: Mobile penetration exceeds 100% in all countries except Mexico, and Brazil and Mexico account for 61% of the region's revenue
Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data services will overtake mobile voice services in 2020 and become the largest source of retail revenue
Mobile penetration: Most handset markets are saturated and offer low growth prospects, and non-handset broadband take-up is slowing down
Mobile connections: LTE is making an impact in Latin America and will account for 19% of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M) by 2020
Smartphones and LTE: Brazil will have the highest smartphone population penetration and LTE take-up rates over the next 5 years
Mobile ARPU: Competition is set to intensify in all markets and will drive down ARPU, while Argentina and Venezuela will have high inflation
Fixed services: Cable services will gain the most subscribers – driven by pay-TV bundles – but DSL will retain the largest share through 2020
Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets through 2019 as competition stimulates demand and multi-play adoption grows
Key drivers at a glance
Individual country forecasts
Argentina: Service revenue will reach ARS122 billion in 2020, but high inflation will be partly responsible for this growth
Argentina – mobile: Penetration peaked in 2013 and will decline further as multiple-SIM ownership shrinks
Argentina – fixed: Broadband penetration growth will be mainly driven by single-play voice and pay-TV users adding broadband
Brazil: Service revenue will continue to grow through 2019 as LTE drives up data spending and fixed broadband take-up accelerates
Brazil – mobile: LTE gains strength, but regulation, price competition and substitution to OTT services will reduce ARPU
Brazil – fixed: The broadband market will become more dynamic thanks to fibre take-up and fixed–mobile bundles
Chile: Data revenue growth will offset the decline in mobile voice revenue, which will be driven by MTR cuts and MVNO competition
Chile – mobile: Mobile ARPU will remain almost stable as data usage compensates for the strong pressure on voice prices
Chile – fixed: Fixed–mobile substitution will drive down fixed voice revenue while fixed broadband will maintain solid growth
Colombia: Service revenue will stagnate after a peak in 2018 because fixed and mobile data growth will eventually slow down
Colombia – mobile: OTT services will almost completely eliminate mobile messaging revenue by 2020 and LTE take-up will be slow
Colombia – fixed: Growth in the broadband market will continue thanks to expanded coverage and service bundling
Mexico: Regulation will limit mobile revenue growth in the short term, but may ultimately unlock the market's potential
Mexico – mobile: AT&T's market entry and Telefónica's presence will make the market more dynamic
Mexico – fixed: Broadband growth will accelerate as operators invest in coverage and fixed voice remains resilient
Peru: Service revenue will reach PEN17 billion in 2020 as improvements in 3G and 4G networks drive mobile revenue
Peru – mobile: Small operators are gaining momentum, which will make the mobile market more dynamic and drive growth
Peru – fixed: Low-ASPU cable connections will drive a short-term decline in fixed broadband ASPU, but it will eventually stabilise
Venezuela: Service revenue will reach VEF238 billion in 2020, driven by data services and boosted by a high rate of inflation
Venezuela – mobile: LTE will gain strength because operators have to meet population coverage targets conditions
Venezuela – fixed: The broadband market will grow slowly because fixed competition is low and LTE will boost mobile Internet usage
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About Analysys Mason
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Latin America,
2014–2020
Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014–2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Latin America
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Latin America, 2020
Figure 6: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2014
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2014–2020
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2014–2020
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2014 and 2020
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2010–20201
Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Latin America,
2015–2020
Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Argentina,
2010–2020
Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Chile
Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Chile
Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Peru
Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Peru
Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 74: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 75: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 76: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Venezuela
Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 78: Fixed ASPU by service type, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 79: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Venezuela

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