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The Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

The Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Mobile handset revenue will account for 44.9% of the total service revenue in 2023 due to the mobile-centric nature of most regions. Regions with significant populations are also still exhibiting growth in this segment. This report examines telecoms trends on a global and regional level and provides key insights into the future of these markets.

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Executive summary and recommendations
The growth in global telecoms service revenue will be primarily driven by growth in the number of mobile handsets in developing markets
Retail revenue growth is largely dictated by market maturity; saturated markets will exhibit much less revenue growth in the period to 2023
Geographical coverage: SSA and MENA are the only regions in which the shares of 4G/5G and NGA connections will be less than 70% and 80%, respectively, by 2023
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key recommendations for telecoms operators
Global forecasts and regional comparison
Market context: the telecoms share of GDP ranges from 1.5% in CEE to 2.1% in SSA
Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
Key drivers at a glance for each region
Market overview: fixed broadband revenue will grow more than mobile handset revenue; the latter will continue to account for the majority of total revenue by 2023
Mobile: mobile data traffic will increase thanks to 5G launches in developed markets and increasing 4G take-up in developing markets
Mobile: increased data consumption combined with migration from prepaid to contract plans will decrease the rate of ARPU decline in the forecast period
Mobile: 5G roll-outs and digital services will be key areas for operator investment
Fixed: fixed revenue growth will be driven by increased competition in the NGA segment in most regions as the number of fibre roll-outs increases
Fixed: North America is the only region in which fixed broadband ASPU will grow significantly thanks to limited competition
Fixed: the NGA share of connections will be over 80% in most regions; the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa are the exceptions
Business services: revenue from all segments of business services will grow during the forecast period; IT service providers will dominate the market
IoT: automotive and smart building applications will be the key drivers of IoT revenue worldwide
Pay TV: growth in pay-TV revenue will primarily be driven by OTT video services as revenue from traditional pay-TV will begin to decline after 2019
Regional forecasts
Western Europe: increased fixed broadband penetration and business services will be the main drivers of total telecoms revenue growth
Western Europe: 4G/LTE take-up will continue to drive growth in mobile data usage, but ARPU will remain flat during the forecast period
Western Europe: 5G spectrum auctions and launches of 5G services will be an important part of operators’ activity in Western Europe
Western Europe: forecast changes
Central and Eastern Europe: total telecoms revenue growth will be driven by smartphone adoption and the use of high-value handset data plans
Central and Eastern Europe: the penetration of NGA technologies will increase due to the limited legacy infrastructure in CEE
Central and Eastern Europe: fixed–mobile converged (FMC) bundles and speed upgrades will help operators to maintain revenue growth
Central and Eastern Europe: forecast changes
Emerging Asia–Pacific: both mobile and fixed service revenue will continue to grow during the forecast period
Emerging Asia–Pacific: investment in NGA and competition will drive the growth of fixed broadband household penetration in many countries
Emerging Asia–Pacific: competition in both the mobile and fixed markets is expected to intensify across the region
Emerging Asia–Pacific: forecast changes
Developed Asia–Pacific: mobile data will drive revenue growth in DVAP; fixed broadband revenue will not offset declining fixed voice revenue
Developed Asia–Pacific: 99.5% of mobile connections in DVAP will use 4G or 5G in 2023
Developed Asia–Pacific: the fixed market in DVAP is very competitive and operators will focus on consumer experience and churn reduction
Developed Asia–Pacific: forecast changes
Middle East and North Africa: mobile services will account for most of the revenue, but fixed broadband will have the strongest revenue growth
Middle East and North Africa: LTE take-up and the launch of 5G services in 2019 will contribute to traffic growth and will reduce the ARPU decline
Middle East and North Africa: broadband connections and revenue will grow in the forecast period driven by network roll-out and service demand
Middle East and North Africa: forecast changes
Sub-Saharan Africa: mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth but mobile voice will continue to be key to service revenue growth
Sub-Saharan Africa: wireless access will contribute the largest share of broadband revenue, but fibre will have the highest growth rate
Sub-Saharan Africa: FBB services offer strong growth opportunities but they will remain inaccessible to the majority of the region’s population
Sub-Saharan Africa: forecast changes
Latin America: mobile, and particularly handset data, will account for the majority of telecoms revenue growth in the next 5 years
Latin America: operators’ fibre and cable roll-out plans will have a strong positive effect on NGA adoption and fixed broadband penetration
Latin America: growth in mobile connectivity will be limited, but ARPU will be positively affected by an increase in the contract share of connections
Latin America: forecast changes
North America: the total telecoms service revenue will grow modestly, mostly due to an increase in fixed broadband revenue
North America: the growth in mobile penetration will mostly come from Canada, where the mobile market is less competitive than in the USA
North America: the competitive market pressure will ease and MNOs will look for new opportunities in the FWA segment
North America: forecast changes
Methodology
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the author and Analysys Mason
About the author
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures:
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by region, worldwide, 2017–2023
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by region, worldwide, 2017 and 2023
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide forecasts
Figure 5: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually, 2017
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes worldwide
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018–2023), by region, worldwide
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, worldwide (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, worldwide (million), 2013–2023
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, worldwide (million), 2013–2023
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, worldwide (million), 2013–2023
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, worldwide (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, worldwide (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, worldwide (million), 2013–2023
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, worldwide (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, worldwide (GB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013–2023
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013–2023
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Western Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Western Europe (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2013–2023
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Western Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013–2023
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013–2023
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Central and Eastern Europe (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013–2023
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (billion), 2013–2023
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, developed Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia–Pacific (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (billion), 2013–2023
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 81: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 82: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 84: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 85: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 86: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Latin America (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 87: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 88: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 89: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 90: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 91: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 92: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2013–2023
Figure 93: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 94: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, North America, 2013–2023
Figure 95: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, North America (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 96: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 97: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 98: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, North America, 2013–2023
Figure 99a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 99b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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