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The Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

Telecoms service revenue worldwide will increase at a CAGR of 0.5% by 2022. Retail revenue will grow more quickly, at CAGR of 0.8%, mostly because of increasing worldwide mobile handset data revenue and next-generation access (NGA) network roll-out. Mobile handset data will account for 36% of total retail telecoms revenue by 2022.

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Executive summary

Mobile handset data and NGA broadband services will drive telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide

Telecoms retail revenue will increase worldwide driven by data revenue despite heavy declines in voice

Worldwide fixed and mobile revenue will increase, driven mostly by network investments and upgrades

Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets

Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators

 

Global forecasts and regional comparison

Geographical coverage: NA and DVAP will lead in 4G/5G penetration, while EMAP will have highest NGA share of FBB connections in 2022

Market context: GDP per capita is a key factor in determining service availability and retail spending on telecommunication services worldwide

Revenue and ARPU: Fixed broadband ASPU and mobile ARPU decline will slow down due to increasing service take-up and revenue growth

Mobile penetration: Mobile penetration will increase to 103% worldwide by 2022 driven mainly by fast service take-up in EMAP and SSA

Mobile connections: 4G’s share of connections worldwide will increase from 28% in 2016 to 58% in 2022

Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration worldwide will increase to 79% by 2022

Mobile broadband: Mobile broadband connections will account for 30% of total broadband connections worldwide

Mobile ARPU: Data ARPU increase will help to slow down the worldwide ARPU decline trend

Data and revenue by generation: Data traffic per connection will increase fivefold during the forecast period

Fixed services: FTTP/B will account for more than half of the total fixed broadband connections by 2019

Fixed broadband: More than 50% of households worldwide will have fixed broadband access by 2022

 

Regional forecasts

CEE: Increasing service revenue in the region will be driven primarily by retail revenue from mobile handset data

CEE – mobile: Smartphones’ share of handsets will increase in line with 4G penetration, driving growth in mobile data ARPU

CEE – fixed: Fixed telecoms operators will focus on NGA network deployment and increasing FBB coverage of households

DVAP: Mobile handset data and FBB will continue to drive revenue growth but the growth rate will slow down

DVAP – mobile: Smartphones’ share of handsets reached 71% in 2016 and will surpass 90% in 2022

DVAP – fixed: FTTP/B will continue to be the dominant broadband technology and will lead the growth in the DVAP region

EMAP: Mobile data will be a key driver of telecoms retail revenue growth supported by growing FBB take-up

EMAP – mobile: Smartphones and 4G connections growth will continue throughout the forecast period

EMAP – fixed: NGA networks and multi-play bundles will drive increase in fixed broadband connections

LATAM: Data demand will drive revenue growth in LATAM, but at a slowing pace

LATAM – mobile: Growth in the number of 4G connections will be quick, but 3G will continue to dominate in the region

LATAM – fixed: FBB penetration growth will slow down due to economic conditions

MENA: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate

MENA – mobile: Increasing saturation will led to a slowdown in numbers of new mobile connections

MENA – fixed: Broadband penetration will increase in most countries driven by new infrastructure investments

NA: Contrasting trends in fixed and mobile markets combinefor a stagnant revenue forecast

NA – mobile: User base growth will be slow due to market maturity

NA – fixed: Penetration is approaching saturation, but lack of competition and upselling will prevent ARPU decline

SSA: Telecoms retail revenue will reach USD43 billion in 2022, and mobile will account for 86% of that total

SSA – mobile: Mobile penetration will increase driven by improved coverage and competition, but growth will slow down

SSA – fixed: Broadband penetration will increase significantly,albeit from a small base

WE: Growing broadband ASPU will limit revenue decline, but strong growth is unlikely

WE – mobile: User bases will be stagnant, but additional SIMs bundled in contracts will limit decline

WE – fixed: The FTTP/B user base will nearly triple between 2016 and 2022, but VDSL will be the leading access technology

 

 

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2016–2022

Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2016–2022

Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide

Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by region, worldwide, 2022

Figure 6: Metrics for the 8 regions modelled individually, 2016

Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2016–2022

Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2016–2022

Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by region (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2016 and 2022

Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), CEE, 2012–2022

Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, CEE, 2016–2022

Figure 21: Connections by type, and growth rates, CEE, 2016–2022

Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, CEE, 2012–2022

Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, CEE, 2012–2022

Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, CEE

Figure 25: Fixed penetration rates by service type, CEE, 2012–2022

Figure 26: Fixed ASPU by service type, CEE, 2012–2022

Figure 27: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, CEE

Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), DVAP, 2012–2022

Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, DVAP, 2016–2022

Figure 30: Connections by type, and growth rates, DVAP, 2016–2022

Figure 31: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, DVAP, 2012–2022

Figure 32: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, DVAP, 2012–2022

Figure 33: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, DVAP

Figure 34: Fixed penetration rates by service type, DVAP, 2012–2022

Figure 35: Fixed ASPU by service type, DVAP, 2012–2022

Figure 36: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, DVAP

Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), EMAP, 2012–2022

Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, EMAP, 2016–2022

Figure 39: Connections by type, and growth rates, EMAP, 2016–2022

Figure 40: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, EMAP, 2012–2022

Figure 41: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, EMAP, 2012–2022

Figure 42: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, EMAP

Figure 43: Fixed penetration rates by service type, EMAP, 2012–2022

Figure 44: Fixed ASPU by service type, EMAP, 2012–2022

Figure 45: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, EMAP

Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), LATAM, 2012–2022

Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, LATAM 2016–2022

Figure 48: Connections by type, and growth rates, LATAM, 2016–2022

Figure 49: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, LATAM, 2012–2022

Figure 50: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, LATAM, 2012–2022

Figure 51: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, LATAM

Figure 52: Fixed penetration rates by service type, LATAM, 2012–2022

Figure 53: Fixed ASPU by service type, LATAM, 2012–2022

Figure 54: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, LATAM

Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), MENA, 2012–2022

Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, MENA, 2016–2022

Figure 57: Connections by type, and growth rates, MENA, 2016–2022

Figure 58: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, MENA, 2012–2022

Figure 59: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, MENA, 2012–2022

Figure 60: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, MENA

Figure 61: Fixed penetration rates by service type, MENA, 2012–2022

Figure 62: Fixed ASPU by service type, MENA, 2012–2022

Figure 63: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, MENA

Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), NA, 2012–2022

Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, NA, 2016–2022

Figure 66: Connections by type, and growth rates, NA, 2016–2022

Figure 67: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, NA, 2012–2022

Figure 68: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, NA, 2012–2022

Figure 69: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, NA

Figure 70: Fixed penetration rates by service type, NA, 2012–2022

Figure 71: Fixed ASPU by service type, NA, 2012–2022

Figure 72: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, NA

Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), SSA, 2012–2022

Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, SSA, 2016–2022

Figure 75: Connections by type, and growth rates, SSA, 2016–2022

Figure 76: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, SSA, 2012–2022

Figure 77: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, SSA, 2012–2022

Figure 78: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, SSA

Figure 79: Fixed penetration rates by service type, SSA, 2012–2022

Figure 80: Fixed ASPU by service type, SSA, 2012–2022

Figure 81: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, SSA

Figure 82: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), WE, 2012–2022

Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, WE, 2016–2022

Figure 84: Connections by type, and growth rates, WE, 2016–2022

Figure 85: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, WE, 2012–2022

Figure 86: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, WE, 2012–2022

Figure 87: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, WE

Figure 88: Fixed penetration rates by service type, WE, 2012–2022

Figure 89: Fixed ASPU by service type, WE, 2012–2022

Figure 90: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, WE

 

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