The Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

Global telecoms service revenue will increase to USD1540 billion in 2021, spurred by 4G mobile services and NGA fixed broadband development. This report provides our regional and global telecoms forecasts to 2021, and an analysis of the trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets.


Executive summary
Telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide will be sustained by the increasing demand for mobile data and super-fast broadband services
Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD82 billion by 2021 because handset data revenue will offset a decline in voice revenue
Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
Global forecasts and regional comparison
Geographical coverage: NGA fixed broadband lines and 4G technology will dominate the telecoms market by 2021
Market context: Revenue will be driven by retail spending on telco services (which depends on GDP per capita) and service availability
Revenue and ARPU: An increase in handset data spending will slow the decline in mobile ARPU
Mobile penetration: Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021
Mobile connections: 4G will account for 46% of mobile connections and 5G will be launched commercially by 2021
Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take-up will be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%)
Mobile broadband: Connections will increase to 480 million worldwide driven mainly by the take-up of connected tablets
Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic worldwide will grow nearly eight-fold by 2021, at a CAGR of 40%
Fixed services: FTTP/B predominance in DVAP and EMAP will boost worldwide fibre penetration to 53% of total fixed broadband lines in 2021
Fixed broadband: Household penetration will increase in all regions driven by the availability of NGA and attractive bundles
Regional forecasts
CEE: Declines in traditional voice and messaging revenue will drive down service revenue in the region
CEE – mobile: ARPU will decline in most countries in CEE due to intense price competition but the decline will be slow
CEE – fixed: Broadband household penetration will increase, driven by the take-up of bundled offers and NGA investments
DVAP: Increases in mobile handset data revenue will be crucial to telecoms revenue growth in the forecast period
DVAP – mobile: 4G/5G technology will be used by 95% of total mobile connections in 2021
DVAP – fixed: NGA penetration will continue to increase,
driving IPTV take-up and slowing down the decline in ASPU
EMAP: OTT services and migration to 4G technology will drive mobile handset usage and telecoms retail revenue
EMAP – mobile: Increasing penetration in the highly competitive prepaid segment will reduce mobile ARPU revenue
EMAP – fixed: NGA penetration growth will be supported by government initiatives to increase FBB service availability
LATAM: Total telecoms retail revenue growth will continue in the  forecast period driven by the mobile handset data segment
LATAM – mobile: 3G will dominate mobile connections until 2021 despite investments in rolling out 4G networks
LATAM – fixed: Broadband penetration will continue to increase  driven mainly by cable and FTTP/B subscription take-up
MENA: Total revenue growth will be driven by the demand for mobile data despite lower investments and a weaker economy
MENA – mobile: Increasing content and OTT service usage due to wide LTE coverage will boost handset data revenue growth
MENA – fixed: Broadband penetration growth will be driven by investments in DSL and fibre infrastructure
NA: Revenue stagnation during the forecast period will be
driven by declining mobile service revenue in the USA
NA – mobile: Connected devices will drive mobile penetration growth and 91% of connections will be 4G in 2021
NA – fixed: A lack of competition in fixed markets will lead to NA having the highest fixed broadband ASPU worldwide
SSA: Telecoms retail revenue will reach USD47.2 billion in 2021, with mobile revenue accounting for 88.4% of that total
SSA – mobile: Penetration will increase, driven by the high level of demand for, and increasing affordability of, services
SSA – fixed: Fixed services are underdeveloped and
will remain relatively unavailable compared to mobile services
WE: Telecoms revenue decline will be alleviated by revenue increase from data services based on 4G and NGA technology
WE – mobile: Increasing 4G penetration of SIMs and OTT service usage will drive handset data ARPU growth
WE – fixed: The increasing household penetration of NGA lines will slow down the decline in broadband ASPU
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About Analysys Mason
List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2015–2021
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015–2021
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA’s share of fixed broadband connections, by region, worldwide, 2021
Figure 6: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually and worldwide, 2015
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2015–2021
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2015–2021
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per gigabyte, worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and mobile broadband, fixed voice, VoBB and IPTV connections, worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by region, 2011–2021
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), CEE, 2011–2021
Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, CEE, 2015–2021
Figure 21: Connections by type, and growth rates, CEE, 2015–2021
Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, CEE, 2011–2021
Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, CEE, 2011–2021
Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, CEE
Figure 25: Fixed penetration rates by service type, CEE, 2011–2021
Figure 26: Fixed ASPU by service type, CEE, 2011–2021
Figure 27: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, CEE
Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), DVAP, 2011–2021
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, DVAP, 2015–2021 
Figure 30: Connections by type, and growth rates, DVAP, 2015–2021
Figure 31: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, DVAP, 2011–2021
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, DVAP, 2011–2021
Figure 33: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
Figure 34: Fixed penetration rates by service type, DVAP, 2011–2021
Figure 35: Fixed ASPU by service type, DVAP, 2011–2021
Figure 36: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), EMAP, 2011–2021
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, EMAP, 2015–2021
Figure 39: Connections by type, and growth rates, EMAP, 2015–2021
Figure 40: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, EMAP, 2011–2021
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, EMAP, 2011–2021
Figure 42: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
Figure 43: Fixed penetration rates by service type, EMAP, 2011–2021
Figure 44: Fixed ASPU by service type, EMAP, 2011–2021
Figure 45: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), LATAM, 2011–2021
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, LATAM, 2015–2021
Figure 48: Connections by type, and growth rates, LATAM, 2015–2021
Figure 49: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, LATAM, 2011–2021
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, LATAM, 2011–2021
Figure 51: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
Figure 52: Fixed penetration rates by service type, LATAM, 2011–2021
Figure 53: Fixed ASPU by service type, LATAM, 2011–2021
Figure 54: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), MENA, 2011–2021
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, MENA, 2015–2021
Figure 57: Connections by type, and growth rates, MENA, 2015–2021
Figure 58: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, MENA, 2011–2021
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, MENA, 2011–2021
Figure 60: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, MENA
Figure 61: Fixed penetration rates by service type, MENA, 2011–2021
Figure 62: Fixed ASPU by service type, MENA, 2011–2021
Figure 63: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, MENA
Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), NA, 2011–2021
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, NA, 2015–2021
Figure 66: Connections by type, and growth rates, NA, 2015–2021
Figure 67: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, NA, 2011–2021
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, NA, 2011–2021
Figure 69: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, NA
Figure 70: Fixed penetration rates by service type, NA, 2011–2021
Figure 71: Fixed ASPU by service type, NA, 2011–2021
Figure 72: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, NA
Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), SSA, 2011–2021
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, SSA, 2015–2021
Figure 75: Connections by type, and growth rates, SSA, 2015–2021
Figure 76: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, SSA, 2011–2021

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