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The Global telecoms market: interim forecast update 2014–2019

The Global telecoms market: interim forecast update 2014–2019

Worldwide telecoms service revenue will continue to grow and will reach USD1.79 trillion in 2019, driven by increasing service penetration in emerging markets and mobile handset data spending in developed regions. This report provides an update of our 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for the worldwide telecoms market.


Executive summary
Global telecoms revenue will continue to grow through 2019, driven by emerging markets and mobile handset data in developed regions
Mobile handset data services will have the highest revenue growth by far in all regions and offer significant monetisation opportunities
Retail revenue will grow in all regions through 2019 except Europe where price competition and regulation is more intense; NA will peak in 2017
Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone adoption will maintain momentum in emerging markets, but LTE will be mainly confined to developed markets
Key changes since our previous forecast: LTE take-up is faster than anticipated in many markets and will accelerate the shift to data services
Forecast revision: The revenue growth outlook is almost unchanged, but currency depreciation drove a revision to the 2013 revenue base
Individual regional forecasts
Central and Eastern Europe: The revenue forecast is almost unchanged, but the shift from voice to data is faster than expected
Central and Eastern Europe: Revenue has already peaked in most markets – Turkey will be the last to peak, in 2017
Developed Asia–Pacific: Historical revenue has been revised downwards, but the growth outlook has improved
Developed Asia–Pacific: Revenue will grow in most markets through 2019; IPTV take-up is fast and will drive fixed revenue
Emerging Asia–Pacific: The revenue forecast is almost unchanged, but fixed–mobile voice substitution will accelerate
Emerging Asia–Pacific: China will have the fastest-growing market and handset data will generate 69% of its revenue growth
Latin America: Revenue has been revised downwards because of currency depreciation, but the outlook for growth has improved
Latin America: The two largest markets, Brazil and Mexico, will grow slowly because of competition
Middle East and North Africa: Smartphone take-up is accelerating and will drive handset data revenue growth faster than anticipated
Middle East and North Africa: GCC countries will account for most of the region’s revenue growth through 2019, led by Qatar
North America: Revenue will grow until 2017, driven by data services, but we have revised historical fixed revenue downwards
North America: The USA dominates the NA telecoms market, and both markets will grow until 2017
Sub-Saharan Africa: Historical revenue figures and forecasts have been revised down because of currency depreciation
Sub-Saharan Africa: Fixed telecoms will remain insignificant, but mobile revenue will grow further because penetration is still low
Western Europe: The improved outlook for LTE, handset data usage and fixed broadband ARPU has helped to boost revenue
Western Europe: The UK market will be the most resilient, while southern European countries will continue to under-perform
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About Analysys Mason
List of figures
Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, worldwide, 2009–2019
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2013–2019
Figure 4: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013–2019) and market size by total retail revenue (2019), by region, worldwide
Figure 5: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2013 and 2019
Figure 6: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2014 worldwide forecast
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, worldwide, 2013 and 2018
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2013–2018
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2013–2018
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009–2019
Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 12: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2019
Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2019
Figure 14: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 15: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2019
Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2019
Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 18: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2019
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Latin America, 2009–2019
Figure 20: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Latin America
Figure 21: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, Latin America, 2013–2019
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2009–2019
Figure 23: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 24: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2019
Figure 25: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, North America, 2009–2019
Figure 26: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, North America
Figure 27: Telecoms service revenue by country, North America, 2009–2019
Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009–2019
Figure 29: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 30: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2019
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Western Europe, 2009–2019
Figure 32: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Western Europe
Figure 33: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, Western Europe, 2013–2019

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