Fixed revenue will stay mostly constant as mobile substitution will lead to a large decline in the usage of fixed voice services. Fixed broadband (FBB) revenue will only increase slightly as cable and fibre broadband are marketed at prices that are similar to those for DSL.
Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: developed Asia–Pacific will take the lead in terms of fixed broadband penetration and will have the highest percentage of total fixed broadband connections
Regional trends
Fixed: the number of fixed broadband connections will not exceed that of fixed voice connections until 2023, but broadband will generate more revenue in 2018
Fixed: operators’ fibre and cable roll-out plans will have a strong positive effect on next generation access (NGA) adoption across the region
Fixed: the growth in fixed broadband penetration will slow down throughout the forecast period due to limited service affordability
Fixed: fixed revenue will slowly decline from 2020 onwards due to a decrease in fixed voice revenue, despite revenue growth in FBB and business services
Country-level trends
Argentina: regulatory changes and market consolidation have shaken up the fixed and pay-TV markets
Brazil: the growth in the number of NGA connections will lead to a slow but steady increase in telecom revenue
Chile: fixed broadband ARPU will increase thanks to growth in NGA connectivity, but this will be counterbalanced by a fall in fixed voice ARPU
Colombia: Telefónica will shake up the fixed market with acquisitions and fibre technology is expected to gain traction in the coming years
Mexico: fibre connections are expected to increase in popularity due to the planned fibre backbone network
Peru: regulatory sanctions should make the market more consumer friendly
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
List of figures:
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 2: Fixed service revenue by location, Latin America and worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 5: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 6: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 7: Fixed retail revenue by service, Latin America (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 8: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 9: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 10: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 11: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 12: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2013–2023
Figure 13: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Argentina (ARS per month), 2013–2023
Figure 14: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million), 2013–2023
Figure 15: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2013–2023
Figure 16: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2013–2023
Figure 17: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Colombia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 19: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 20: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2013–2023
Figure 21: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2013–2023
Figure 22: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2013–2023
Figure 23: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2013–2023
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