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The FTTx coverage and capex: worldwide trends and forecasts 2017–2022

The FTTx coverage and capex: worldwide trends and forecasts 2017–2022

FTTx investments, whether in developed or emerging markets, remain high on the list of operator objectives. This report provides 5-year forecasts for coverage rates and capex for types of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS3.0/3.1) in eight regions and in 64 individual countries.
 

This report analyses and forecasts coverage (premises passed) and capex for FTTx architecture and technologies during 2013–2022. It is based on several sources, including the following:

 

- Analysys Mason’s internal research, including our core telecoms forecasts, our fixed data traffic forecasts, and our detailed modelling of the costs of technologies and deployment. Our modelling and assumptions are informed by professionals in our 14 offices worldwide.

 

- Ongoing engagement with stakeholders in the FTTx market, including operators and vendors.

Who should read this report:
 

This report provides strategic planners with detailed and comprehensive insight into the development of FTTx in comparable markets, allowing them to understand what level and type of investment is appropriate, and where opportunities lie.

 

For equipment vendors, construction businesses and component suppliers, it shows the scale of opportunity in FTTx.

 

The model can also serve several other functions beyond the immediate scope of this report. It can be used to provide the costs of alternative scenarios, including different mixes of technologies, different demand profiles in different geotypes, and different completion dates. If you wish to explore these options, please contact the author.

Please note: this report is delivered as a zip file (PPTX,  PDF and  Excel)


Worldwide trends

NGA coverage increases are slowing and global FTTx capex has peaked

Benchmarks suggest that an operator can cover a maximum of 25% of a country’s premises with FTTP in a single year

FTTx coverage is above 90% in some developed markets and most others will have achieved this coverage level by 2022

FTTP costs per home passed vary considerably across Europe driven by a number of critical variables

Incumbent FTTP coverage and coverage from other FTTP players are closely correlated

The availability of fibre availability varies between emerging markets and coverage is particularly low in the Indian sub-continent and North Africa

VDSL35b has attracted considerable interest from European operators and is eating into the potential market for G.fast

DOCSIS3.1 upgrades can be remarkably low-cost for cable operators and are beginning to increase in number

Western Europe

Western Europe: A variety of FTTP investment models are emerging

Central and Eastern Europe

Central and Eastern Europe: Increases in NGA coverage will be relatively modest during the forecast period

Middle East and North Africa

Middle East and North Africa: Many countries in the region will continue to lack significant NGA coverage in 2022

Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa: Affordability will constrain NGA roll-outs to less than 5% of premises in 2022

China and rest of emerging Asia–Pacific

China: Attention is beginning to shift to next-generation PON upgrades

Rest of emerging Asia–Pacific: Operators have an opportunity to increase FTTx coverage in the Indian sub-continent

Developed Asia–Pacific

Developed Asia–Pacific: Government-backed NGA roll-outs in Australia and New Zealand continue to make progress

North America

North America: Canada’s operators are investing in extending FTTP coverage

Latin America

Latin America: Copper-based NGA technologies have gained some traction in Latin America

Forecast methodology and assumptions

Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions

Definitions

We take baseline costs for each technology and then apply several context-specific variables to determine total capex

Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies

Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/dp/VDSL

Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTP/GPON

About the authors and Analysys Mason

About the authors

About Analysys Mason

 

Figure 1: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 2: NGA coverage by region, 2014–2022

Figure 3: FTTx capex, by worldwide region, 2014–2022

Figure 4: Year-on-year percentage point increase in FTTP coverage of total country premises

Figure 5: FTTx coverage of total country premises by selected market, end 2017 and end 2022

Figure 6: FTTP costs per home passed and incumbent FTTP coverage, selected European markets, end 2017

Figure 7: Incumbent and other operator FTTP coverage, end of 2017, selected major markets

Figure 8: FTTx coverage end 2017 and nominal GDP per capita 2016, selected emerging markets

Figure 9: FTTC and FTTB/dp homes passed, worldwide, 2017-2022

Figure 10: Cost per premises passed for DOCSIS3.1 and downstream/upstream frequency upgrades

Figure 11: NGA coverage by technology, Western Europe, 2015–2022

Figure 12: FTTx capex by technology, Western Europe, 2015–2022

Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015–2022

Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015–2022

Figure 15: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2022

Figure 16: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2022

Figure 17: NGA coverage by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–2022

Figure 18: FTTx capex by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–2022

Figure 19: NGA coverage by technology, China, 2015–2022

Figure 20: FTTx capex by technology, China, 2015–2022

Figure 21: NGA coverage by technology, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015–2022

Figure 22: FTTx capex by technology, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015–2022

Figure 23: NGA coverage by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015–2022

Figure 24: FTTx capex by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015–2022

Figure 25: NGA coverage by technology, North America, 2015–2022

Figure 26: FTTx capex by technology, North America, 2015–2022

Figure 27: NGA coverage by technology, Latin America, 2015–2022

Figure 28: FTTx capex by technology, Latin America, 2015–2022

Figure 29: Countries covered in this report, by region

Figure 30: Definitions used in this report

Figure 31: Capex model outline

Figure 32: Basic overview of FTTx network topologies and elements

Figure 33: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/VDSL

Figure 34: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTP/GPON

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