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The FTTx conversion: worldwide trends and forecasts 2017–2022

The FTTx conversion: worldwide trends and forecasts 2017–2022

This report provides 5-year forecasts for subscriber connection numbers and connection rates for types of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS3.0/3.1) in eight regions and in 64 individual countries.


Note: this report is delivered as a zip file, containing, PPTX, PDF and Excel file.


Worldwide trends
NGA will dominate the fixed broadband market in 2022 and FTTP will continue to increase its share of connection
Forced migration has driven FTTP take-up rates to very high levels in some emerging markets
In markets dominated by wholesale national broadband networks, FTTx take-up is growing steadily after a slow start
Energy companies have seen very mixed take-up rates for their FTTP deployments
Fibre specialist ISPs are facing an increasingly difficult market, which is making market share growth challenging
FTTx subscribers have significantly lower churn than non-NGA fixed broadband subscribers
Incumbents that are slow to proceed with FTTP deployments face political and regulatory risks and potential wholesale losses
Dramatic increases in FTTx coverage have had a limited impact on cable broadband connection trends

Western Europe
Western Europe: FTTx conversion remains challenging for some Western European incumbents

Central and Eastern Europe
Central and Eastern Europe: NGA take-up rates will experience only limited growth in the period to 2022

Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa: NGA connections will be used by just 12% of households in MENA at the end of 2022

Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa: Take-up rates for NGA will reach 30% of premises passed at the end of 2022, lower than other regions

China and merging Asia–Pacific
China: Infrastructure competition and forced migration have driven FTTP take-up rates to very high levels
Rest of emerging Asia–Pacific: Subscriber connection rates have generally been good but there are exceptions

Developed Asia–Pacific
Developed Asia–Pacific: The migration to incumbent fibre infrastructure continues to be slow in some advanced markets

North America
North America: NGA competition is likely to become more intense in Canada and the USA

Latin America
Latin America: Cable operators will continue to dominate the NGA market in the period to 2021

Appendix
The retail take-up on FTTP networks in which energy companies have been involved has been highest for LyseTele in Norway

Forecast methodology and assumptions
Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions

Definitions

Figure 1: Fixed broadband active connections, by technology, and NGA share of connections worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Conversion rates by technology, worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 3: NGA conversion rates, by region, 2014–2022
Figure 4: ADSL connections as a proportion of fixed broadband connections, by country, 2012–2016
Figure 5: FTTx conversion rates for incumbent wholesale operators, by country, 4Q 2009–4Q 2017
Figure 6: Energy company involvement in retail FTTP networks
Figure 7: FTTP/B subscriber market share by lean ISP, end of 2016 and end of 2Q 2017
Figure 8: Monthly fixed broadband churn rate by selected operator, 2015–2Q 2017
Figure 9: Iceland fixed broadband market share, 2012–2016
Figure 10: Cable and NGA connections and year-on-year change in cable connections, Western Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 11: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Western Europe, 2015–2022
Figure 12: Active connections per premises, by technology, Western Europe, 2015–2022
Figure 13: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Central and Eastern Europe, 2015–2022
Figure 14: Active connections per premises, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015–2022
Figure 15: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2022
Figure 16: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2022
Figure 17: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–2022
Figure 18: Active connections per premises, by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–2022
Figure 19: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, China, 2015–2022
Figure 20: Active connections per premises, by technology, China, 2015–2022
Figure 21: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015–2022
Figure 22: Active connections per premises, by technology, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015–2022
Figure 23: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–2022
Figure 24: Active connections per premises, by technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–2022
Figure 25: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, North America, 2015–2022
Figure 26: Active connections per premises, by technology, North America, 2015–2022
Figure 27: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Latin America, 2015–2022
Figure 28: Active connections per premises, by technology, Latin America, 2015–2022
Figure 29: Conversion rate of FTTP premises passed, selected energy company FTTP deployments
Figure 30: Countries covered in this report, by region
Figure 31: Definitions used in this report

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