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The Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

The emerging Asia–Pacific region is home to some of the most dynamic telecoms markets in the world. This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the region and for six individual countries.

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Table of contents:

Executive summary and recommendations

The telecoms retail revenue for EMAP will increase over the forecast period but the CAGR will fall from 4.9% (2013–2017) to 2.1% (2017–2023)

Retail revenue will continue to grow in every country covered in the EMAP region

Geographical coverage: every country in the region will see substantial development in fixed and mobile network technology

Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets

Key recommendations for telecoms operators

Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

Market context: the relative strength of the telecoms industry varies between countries as can be seen by the individual shares of GDP

Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries

Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia–Pacific market

Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue (excluding that from pay TV) will reach USD315 million by 2023

Mobile: ARPU grew in 2016 due to increased data monetisation, but the decline seen in 2017 will continue over the forecast period

Mobile: penetration will continue to increase in most countries, and will only decline in Cambodia and Malaysia due to a fall in multi-SIM ownership

Mobile: the fall in ARPU in China caused by government guidelines on mobile data pricing will drive the fall in ARPU in the region

Mobile: increasing subscriber numbers and growing mobile data revenue will ensure that the overall mobile service revenue will continue to grow

Fixed: increasing investment in fixed broadband and the turning off of DSL networks will mean that FTTP/B will make up 88% of all fixed broadband connections in 2023

Fixed: China will continue to lead in terms of fixed broadband penetration, but strong investment in other countries means that the gap is narrowing

Fixed: government regulation and competition have resulted in China having the lowest broadband ASPU in the region

Fixed: government initiatives and increasing competition will increase the affordability and penetration of fixed broadband access

Business services: operators will benefit from increasing other business services revenue

IoT: the total revenue from the IoT value chain will grow to over USD42 billion by 2023

Pay TV: strong growth in IPTV and satellite services will be at the expense of cable

Individual country forecasts

China: the total service revenue growth will be flat, and marginal increases in penetration will cancel out the effects of decreasing ARPU

China: mobile ARPU will decline driven by government guidelines and the  already high unlimited plan take-up, despite the increase in data usage

China: government initiatives and intervention have driven substantial growth in the market and will continue to shape growth

China: forecast changes

Indonesia: the number of mobile connections will drop by over 16% in 2018 due to the launch of a new prepaid SIM card registration regulation

Indonesia: FTTP/B will be the most-widespread technology in Indonesia and the number of DSL connections will drop to 0 by 2023

Indonesia: the competitive environment in the mobile market will become healthier and there is room for growth in the number of FBB connections

Indonesia: forecast changes

Malaysia: the number of fixed broadband connections will increase due to network investment and the renewed popularity of BFWA

Malaysia: the average mobile data usage will increase at a CAGR of 46.4% and will be the highest in the EMAP region

Malaysia: operator expansion into the fixed market should keep overall mobile revenue stable, despite a saturated and competitive market

Malaysia: forecast changes

Philippines: the long-awaited market entry of a third MNO and mobile number portability will bring increased competition to the market

Philippines: fixed broadband household penetration is growing, and the 4G share of mobile connections will increase significantly

Philippines: the end of the duopoly in the mobile segment will bring more competition to the market

Philippines: forecast changes

Thailand: fixed and mobile service revenue will reach THB383 billion (USD11.5 billion) in 2021 before starting to decline

Thailand: mobile and fixed broadband ASPU will decline due to competition, despite a general shift to 4G and fibre access

Thailand: operators will continue to compete on network quality in both the fixed and mobile markets

Thailand: forecast changes

Vietnam: the number of FBB connections will grow with a CAGR of 11% from 2017 to 2023, but mobile will still account for most of the overall revenue

Vietnam: the contract share of connections is expected to nearly double due to the launch of 4G in 2016, leading to an increase in mobile ARPU

Vietnam: operators continue to try to entice customers to migrate to 4G packages

Vietnam: forecast changes

Methodology

Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge

List of figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023

Figure 2: Growth in both the telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017–2023

Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017 and 2023

Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia–Pacific

Figure 5: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017

Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in emerging Asia–Pacific

Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018–2023), by country, emerging Asia–Pacific

Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2013–2023

Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023

Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023

Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023

Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023

Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2013–2023

Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023

Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023

Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023

Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023

Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2013–2023

Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023

Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (GB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023

Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023

Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023

Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2023

Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2023

Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, China (CNY trillion), 2013–2023

Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2013–2023

Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, China, 2013–2023

Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, China (million), 2013–2023

Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, China, 2013–2023

Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, China (CNY per month), 2013–2023

Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, China (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, China (million), 2013–2023

Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, China, 2013–2023

Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Indonesia (IDR trillion), 2013–2023

Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2013–2023

Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Indonesia, 2013–2023

Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2013–2023

Figure 40: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Indonesia, 2013–2023

Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Indonesia (IDR thousand per month), 2013–2023

Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Indonesia (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Indonesia (million), 2013–2023

Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Indonesia, 2013–2023

Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Malaysia (MYR billion), 2013–2023

Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2013–2023

Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Malaysia, 2013–2023

Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2013–2023

Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Malaysia, 2013–2023

Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Malaysia (MYR per month), 2013–2023

Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Malaysia (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Malaysia (million), 2013–2023

Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Malaysia, 2013–2023

Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Philippines (PHP billion), 2013–2023

Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2013–2023

Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Philippines, 2013–2023

Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Philippines (million), 2013–2023

Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Philippines, 2013–2023

Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Philippines (PHP per month), 2013–2023

Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Philippines (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Philippines (million), 2013–2023

Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Philippines, 2013–2023

Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Thailand (THB billion), 2013–2023

Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2013–2023

Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Thailand, 2013–2023

Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Thailand (million), 2013–2023

Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Thailand, 2013–2023

Figure 68: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Thailand (THB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Thailand (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Thailand (million), 2013–2023

Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Thailand, 2013–2023

Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Vietnam (VND trillion), 2013–2023

Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2013–2023

Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Vietnam, 2013–2023

Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2013–2023

Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Vietnam, 2013–2023

Figure 77: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Vietnam (VND thousand per month), 2013–2023

Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Vietnam (MB per month), 2013–2023

Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Vietnam (million), 2013–2023

Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Vietnam, 2013–2023

Figure 81: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

 

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