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The Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

The Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

Total telecoms retail revenue in emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) will grow with a CAGR of 3%, mainly driven by mobile handset data, fixed broadband and IPTV. This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the emerging Asia–Pacific and for six individual countries.


Executive summary
Telecoms retail revenue for EMAP will increase over the forecast period, but the CAGR will fall from 5.1% (2012–2016) to 3.4% (2016–2022)
Retail revenue across the EMAP region will increase, with no countries in the region experiencing revenue decline over the period
Geographical coverage: most countries will see substantial technological development of fixed and mobile networks
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key recommendations for telecoms operators
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Market context: telecoms service revenue in EMAP reached USD280 billion in 2016 (1.7% of total GDP); China contributed more than half
Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia–Pacific market
Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue will increase over the forecast period, reaching USD328 billion in 2022
Mobile: the amount of data traffic will increase dramatically over the forecast period with a CAGR of 61%
Mobile: Malaysia and Cambodia will be the only countries in the region with declining mobile penetration
Mobile: in most markets, competitive price pressure will outweigh data monetisation resulting in a decrease in the regional ARPU
Mobile: the markets in EMAP are at varying stages of development, but most operators will focus on data monetisation over the forecast period
Fixed: FTTP/B will account for 87.8% of fixed broadband connections in 2022
Fixed: China leads the way in broadband penetration thanks to substantial government-backed investment
Fixed: the broadband ASPU will decrease at an average rate of 2.6% per year as operators lower prices to attract mass-market customers
Fixed: increased fibre coverage and affordability will drive broadband penetration over the forecast period
Business services: operators will benefit from increasing other business services revenue
IoT: total revenue from the IoT value chain will grow to almost USD40 billion by 2022
Pay TV: strong growth in IPTV and satellite services will be at the expense of cable
Individual country forecasts
China: total service revenue will increase, driven by growth in mobile data ARPU and fixed broadband penetration
China: almost all mobile connections will be 4G/5G; this will increase mobile data usage and stabilise mobile ARPU
China: network investment has resulted in one of the most developed telecoms markets in the world
China: forecast changes
Indonesia: the overall revenue will peak in 2019 and then decrease as a result of the level of competition in the market
Indonesia: FTTP/B has become the fixed broadband technology with the highest share of connections
Indonesia: declining mobile ARPU will limit overall telecoms revenue growth, despite the scope for growth for fixed broadband
Indonesia: forecast changes
Malaysia: telecoms revenue will remain approximately constant at around MYR31 billion over the forecast period
Malaysia: the average mobile data usage per connection will increase at a CAGR of 60.6%, and will be the highest in EMAP
Malaysia: potential market consolidation should keep the ARPU stable, despite a saturated mobile market
Malaysia: forecast changes
Philippines: mobile handset service revenue will decrease over the forecast period, but the overall revenue will increase
Philippines: prohibitive pricing will deter consumers from taking postpaid subscriptions, despite the mobile data usage growth
Philippines: the eventual entry of the third mobile operator will shake up the Philippine telecoms market
Philippines: forecast changes
Thailand: total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue will peak at THB394 billion in 2020
Thailand: market competition will cause mobile and fixed broadband ASPU to decrease over the forecast period
Thailand: network improvement will result in one of the most technologically developed telecoms markets in EMAP
Thailand: forecast changes
Vietnam: extensive FTTP deployments will result in a fixed broadband retail CAGR of 12.9% over the forecast period
Vietnam: the volume of mobile data traffic per connection remains the lowest in the EMAP region
Vietnam: operators’ fibre roll-outs will result in Vietnam being the only EMAP nation (other than China) to be 100% NGA in 2022
Vietnam: forecast changes
Methodology
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the author and Analysys Mason
About the author
About Analysys Mason
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures:
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016 and 2022
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 5: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017–2022), by country, emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2012–2022
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2012–2022
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2012–2022
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2012–2022
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (GB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2022
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2022
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, China (CNY trillion), 2012–2022
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2012–2022
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, China, 2012–2022
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, China (million), 2012–2022
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, China, 2012–2022
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, China (CNY per month), 2012–2022
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, China (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, China (million), 2012–2022
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, China, 2012–2022
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Indonesia (IDR trillion), 2012–2022
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Indonesia, 2012–2022
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 40: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Indonesia, 2012–2022
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Indonesia (IDR thousand per month), 2012–2022
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Indonesia (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Indonesia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Indonesia, 2012–2022
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Malaysia (MYR billion), 2012–2022
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Malaysia, 2012–2022
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Malaysia, 2012–2022
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Malaysia (MYR per month), 2012–2022
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Malaysia (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Malaysia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Malaysia, 2012–2022
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Philippines (PHP billion), 2012–2022
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2012–2022
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Philippines, 2012–2022
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Philippines (million), 2012–2022
Figure 58: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Philippines, 2012–2022
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Philippines (PHP per month), 2012–2022
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Philippines (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Philippines (million), 2012–2022
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Philippines, 2012–2022
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Thailand (THB billion), 2012–2022
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2012–2022
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Thailand, 2012–2022
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Thailand (million), 2012–2022
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Thailand, 2012–2022
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Thailand (THB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Thailand (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Thailand (million), 2012–2022
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Thailand, 2012–2022
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Vietnam (VND trillion), 2012–2022
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2012–2022
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Vietnam, 2012–2022
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2012–2022
Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Vietnam, 2012–2022
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Vietnam (VND thousand per month), 2012–2022
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Vietnam (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Vietnam (million), 2012–2022
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Vietnam, 2012–2022
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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