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The Developed Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

Total telecoms service revenue in developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) will grow slowly during the forecast period, surpassing USD200 billion in 2022; mobile handset data revenue will account for the majority of the region's retail revenue. This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the region and for six individual countries.


Executive summary

Overall telecoms service revenue in developed Asia–Pacific will grow slowly, surpassing USD200 billion in 2022

Telecoms retail revenue in DVAP will grow by USD10 billion between 2016 and 2022, thanks to strong mobile handset data revenue growth

Mobile revenue will grow in all DVAP countries except Hong Kong; only South Korea will have growth in fixed line business during 2016–2022

Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in DVAP

Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators

Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

Geographical coverage: By 2022, 4G/5G will account for 98% of all mobile connections (excluding IoT); FBB household penetration will reach 95%

Market context: SIM population penetration exceeded 120% and fixed broadband household penetration slowly grew to 86% in DVAP in 2016

Revenue and ARPU: Broadband services and high smartphone penetration will continue to depress voice revenue

Mobile penetration: Active mobile SIM penetration growth in the DVAP region will remain steady, reaching 124% by 2022

Mobile connections: the share of 4G mobile connections will continue to increase until 2019, and then start to decline as it is replaced by 5G

Smartphones and LTE: The smartphone share of total handsets in DVAP reached 71% in 2016 and will surpass 90% in 2022

Mobile broadband: The number of mobile broadband connections  in DVAP will reach 22.7 million by 2022, 99% of these will be 4G/5G

Mobile ARPU: mobile ARPU for the DVAP region will grow slowly overall to USD33 per month by the end of the forecast period

Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic will grow steadily, supported by new technologies, to reach 32.5EB in 2022

Fixed services: FTTP/B will continue to be the dominant broadband technology, leading to revenue growth in the DVAP region

Fixed broadband: High bandwidth demand, NBN plans and competition will drive fixed broadband household penetration to 95% in 2022

 

Key drivers at a glance for each market in developed Asia–Pacific

Key drivers at a glance table: methodology

 

Individual country forecasts

Australia: Mobile data and fixed broadband revenue growth will mitigate traditional revenue decline during the forecast period

Australia– mobile: Termination rate reduction in 2016 will affect service revenue growth in the forecast period

Australia – fixed: Enhanced network coverage and intensified market competition will drive fixed broadband penetration growth

Hong Kong: Intensified competition will result in a retail revenue decline overall during the forecast period

Hong Kong – mobile: Competition will intensify in the mobile market after HKBN’s entrance, resulting in a decline in ARPU

Hong Kong – fixed: IPTV is becoming an engine for growth, thanks to an enriched content portfolio and TV box bundles

Japan: IoT will contribute to mobile penetration growth; technology improvements will further increase fixed penetration

Japan – mobile: Data-centric pricing will drive data revenue growth, compensating for voice and messaging revenue declines

Japan – fixed: Technology improvements, such as the deployment of 5G BFWA, are expected to increase the rate of FBB adoption

Singapore: The emergence of new operators in mobile and fixed markets will affect revenue growth during the forecast period

Singapore – mobile: The entrance of a fourth MNO will increase competition and lead to a higher rate of 4G adoption

Singapore – fixed: The market will be more saturated with limited growth in FBB subscriber numbers and revenue

South Korea: Mobile handset data and IPTV revenue growth will be the main contributors to an increase in overall retail revenue

South Korea – mobile: Connections are expected to be on 4G/5G
by 2022; increasing OTT usage will drive data revenue growth

South Korea – fixed: IPTV subscriber base will continue to grow during forecast period, and drive fixed revenue growth

Taiwan: The introduction of unlimited data plans will continue to affect the revenue of other mobile and fixed services

Taiwan – mobile: Unlimited data plans will lead to high data usage per connection, but will negatively affect revenue growth

Taiwan – fixed: Operators will offer more-attractive plans and lead to FTTP/B subscriber growth during the forecast period

 

List of Figures

 

Fixed ASPU by service type, Australia, 2012–2022

Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Australia

Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Hong Kong, 2012–2022

Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2016–2022

Connections by type, and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2016–2022

Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Hong Kong, 2012–2022

Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Hong Kong, 2012–2022

Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong

Fixed penetration rates by service type, Hong Kong, 2012–2022

Fixed ASPU by service type, Hong Kong, 2012–2022

Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong

Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Japan, 2012–2022

Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Japan, 2016–2022

Connections by type, and growth rates, Japan, 2016–2022

Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Japan, 2012–2022

Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Japan, 2012–2022

Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Japan

Fixed penetration rates by service type, Japan, 2012–2022

Fixed ASPU by service type, Japan, 2012–2022

Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Japan

Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Singapore, 2012–2022

Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Singapore, 2016–2022

Connections by type, and growth rates, Singapore, 2016–2022

Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Singapore, 2012–2022

Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Singapore, 2012–2022

Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Singapore

Fixed penetration rates by service type, Singapore, 2012–2022

Fixed ASPU by service type, Singapore, 2012–2022

Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Singapore

Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Korea, 2012–2022

Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Korea, 2016–2022

Connections by type, and growth rates, South Korea, 2016–2022

Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Korea, 2012–2022

Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Korea, 2012–2022

Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Korea

Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Korea, 2012–2022

Fixed ASPU by service type, South Korea, 2012–2022

Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, South Korea

Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Taiwan, 2012–2022

Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Taiwan, 2016–2022

Connections by type, and growth rates, Taiwan, 2016–2022

Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Taiwan, 2012–2022

Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Taiwan, 2012–2022

Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan

Fixed penetration rates by service type, Taiwan, 2012–2022

Fixed ASPU by service type, Taiwan, 2012–2022

Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan

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