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The Communication services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

The Communication services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in the emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) region, including country views for China, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.
 

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP). It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT)1 providers.

 

A complete set of forecast results is provided in the accompanying Excel data annex.

 

The forecast is based on several sources:

 

*Analysys Mason’s internal research, including our regional forecasts, Connected Consumer surveys and various trackers in the Future Comms and Media research programme

*interviews with stakeholders in the communications market around the world.

Who Should Read This Report:
 

*Strategy and planning executives who are responsible for mobile operators’ communication services strategies and partnerships with OTT players.

*Executives in mobile operators’ technology and innovations teams who are responsible for developing communication services.

*Marketing executives at vendors of communication services equipment and software, as it will help them understand the needs of their operator customers and size the addressable market for their products

Note: This report is delivered as a zip file (PPTX, PDF and Excel)


Executive summary

Worldwide trends

Worldwide: IP messaging traffic volumes were more than 8 times the size of SMS traffic in 2016

Worldwide: OTT messaging services will be adopted by 75% of the global population by 2022

Worldwide: Facebook is adopting the platform proposition pioneered in Asian countries by LINE and WeChat

Worldwide: Smartphones will continue to dominate as communication devices

Worldwide: Strategic responses from operators vary noticeably in different regions

Worldwide: Operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services – nearly 3.6 billion subscribers are expected by 2022

Worldwide: Many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, principally to improve indoor coverage

Google’s involvement has boosted Rich Communications Services, but usage is likely to remain low

Regional trends

Emerging Asia–Pacific: Continued strong growth is expected in the messaging market, attracting both local and global players

Emerging Asia–Pacific: An extra one billion mobile users will be the principal driver of traffic growth over the forecast period

Country-level trends

China: Tencent’s services dominate the messaging markets; operators are focusing on voice services

Indonesia: LINE dominates the youth market – operators are focusing on improving LTE (and voice) coverage

Malaysia: Facebook dominates the app market, pushing regional platform players on to the back foot

Philippines: Operators are planning to launch RCS services in what remains a strong messaging market

Forecast methodology and assumptions

Forecast outputs and definitions

Forecast methodology

About the authors and Analysys Mason

About the authors

About Analysys Mason

 

List of figures:

 

Figure 1: Messaging traffic, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2022

Figure 2: Mobile voice traffic, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2022

Figure 3: Messages sent by message type worldwide, 2011–2016

Figure 4: Messages sent by message type and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2011–2022

Figure 5: OTT messaging users by device worldwide, 2011–2022

Figure 6: OTT voice users by device worldwide, 2011–2022

Figure 7: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services worldwide, 2016–2022

Figure 8: Retail revenue for SMS services worldwide, 2016–2022

Figure 9: Active users of VoLTE services by region, 2016–2022

Figure 10: Wi-Fi calling service users and traffic worldwide, 2015–2022

Figure 11: Traffic for all mobile operator messaging services and number of operator-provided IP messaging service users worldwide, 2011–2022

Figure 12: Messaging traffic, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2022

Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2022

Figure 14: Messaging traffic by message type, China, 2011–2022

Figure 15: Messaging traffic by message type, Indonesia, 2011–2022

Figure 16: Messaging traffic by message type, Malaysia, 2011–2022

Figure 17: Messaging traffic by message type, Philippines, 2011–2022

Figure 18: Overview of the main forecast outputs

Figure 19: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report

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