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The Communication services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP). It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT)1 providers.

 

A complete set of forecast results is provided in the accompanying Excel data annex.

The forecast is based on several sources:

 

·         Analysys Mason’s internal research, including our regional forecasts, Connected Consumer surveys and various trackers in the Future Comms and Media research programme

 

·         interviews with stakeholders in the communications market around the world.

 

 

Who Should Read this Report:

 

 

  • Strategy and planning executives who are responsible for mobile operators’ communication services strategies and partnerships with OTT players.
  • Executives in mobile operators’ technology and innovations teams who are responsible for developing communication services.

 

Marketing executives at vendors of communication services equipment and software, as it will help them understand the needs of their operator customers and size the addressable market for their products.

 

Geographic Coverage:

 

Regions covered in this report:

 

  • Worldwide
  • Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)
  • Australia
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

 

Forecast results provided in the data annex:

  • Worldwide
  • DVAP region
  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan
  • Rest of DVAP region

 

Key Metrics

 

  • Non-operator/OTT services
    • Voice and messaging
    • Active users by device type
    • Outgoing traffic by device type
  • Operator traditional services
    • Handsets
    • Circuit-switched (CS) voice and SMS
    • Outgoing traffic
  • Operator IP-based services
    • Active users by service type
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Outgoing traffic by service type
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Retail revenue
      • Voice and messaging
      • Average spend per user

Note: This report  is delivered as a zip file (PDF, PPT and Excel)

 

 

 

 

 


Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: IP messaging traffic volumes were more than 8 times the size of SMS traffic in 2016
Worldwide: OTT messaging services will be adopted by 75% of the global population by 2022
Worldwide: Facebook is adopting the platform proposition pioneered in Asian countries by LINE and WeChat
Worldwide: Smartphones will continue to dominate as communication devices
Worldwide: Strategic responses from operators vary noticeably in different regions
Worldwide: Operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services – nearly 3.6 billion subscribers are expected by 2022
Worldwide: Many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, principally to improve indoor coverage
Google’s involvement has boosted Rich Communications Services, but usage is likely to remain low
Regional trends
Developed Asia–Pacific: Many operators will no longer compete for messaging and OTTs will dominate the market
Developed Asia–Pacific: Operators are hoping that innovation in voice will limit migration to strong OTT players
Country-level trends
Australia: OTT alternatives are going to take over messaging; operators will remain central in voice services
Japan: Japanese operators are ahead of the curve and; focusing on digital innovations and OTT investments
South Korea: Operators are setting standards for innovation in voice, despite their lack of success in messaging
Taiwan: Unlimited data tariffs are supporting the growth of OTT voice services
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Forecast outputs and definitions
Forecast methodology
About the authors and Analysys Mason

List of figures:

Figure 1: Messaging traffic, Developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2022
Figure 2: Mobile voice traffic, Developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2022
Figure 3: Messages sent by message type worldwide, 2011–2016
Figure 4: Messages sent by message type and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2011–2022
Figure 5: OTT messaging users by device worldwide, 2011–2022
Figure 6: OTT voice users by device worldwide, 2011–2022
Figure 7: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services worldwide, 2015–2022
Figure 8: Retail revenue for SMS services worldwide, 2016-2022
Figure 9: Active users of VoLTE services by region, 2016–2022
Figure 10: Wi-Fi calling service users and traffic worldwide, 2016–2022
Figure 11: Traffic for all mobile operator messaging services and number of operator-provided IP messaging service users worldwide, 2016–2022
Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2022
Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2022
Figure 14: Messaging traffic by message type, Australia, 2011–2022
Figure 15: Messaging traffic by message type, Japan, 2011–2022
Figure 16: Messaging traffic by message type, South Korea, 2011–2022
Figure 17: Messaging traffic by message type, Taiwan, 2011–2022
Figure 18: Overview of the main forecast outputs
Figure 19: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report

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