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The Communication services in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: IP messaging traffic volumes were more than 8 times the size of SMS traffic in 2016
Worldwide: OTT messaging services will be adopted by 75% of the global population by 2022
Worldwide: Facebook is adopting the platform proposition pioneered in Asian countries by LINE and WeChat
Worldwide: Smartphones will continue to dominate as communication devices
Worldwide: Strategic responses from operators vary noticeably in different regions
Worldwide: Operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services – nearly 3.6 billion subscribers are expected by 2022
Worldwide: Many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, principally to improve indoor coverage
Google’s involvement has boosted Rich Communications Services, but usage is likely to remain low

Regional trends
Middle East and North Africa: OTT services will dominate messaging and there is little appetite for operators to compete
Middle East and North Africa: Legacy voice will continue to dominate, but VoIP will represent a persistent challenge

Country-level trends
Morocco: Operators have experienced a decline in international voice traffic following the lifting of a VoIP ban
Oman: Adoption of OTT messaging will accelerate, while the growth of VoIP services will be subdued due to regulations
Saudi Arabia: Fierce competition on voice and data pricing leaves little room for operators to deter OTT players
United Arab Emirates: The outlook for IP messaging and voice is strong, despite operators’ efforts to reduce OTT appeal

Forecast methodology and assumptions
Forecast outputs and definitions
Forecast methodology

List of figures:
Figure 1: Messaging traffic, the Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2022
Figure 2: Mobile voice traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2022
Figure 3: Messages sent by message type worldwide, 2011–2016
Figure 4: Messages sent by message type and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2011–2022
Figure 5: OTT messaging users by device worldwide, 2011–2022
Figure 6: OTT voice users by device worldwide, 2011–2022
Figure 7: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services worldwide, 2016–2022
Figure 8: Retail revenue for SMS services worldwide, 2016–2022
Figure 9: Active users of VoLTE services by region, 2016–2022
Figure 10: Wi-Fi calling service users and traffic worldwide, 2015–2022
Figure 11: Traffic for all mobile operator messaging services and number of operator-provided IP messaging service users worldwide, 2011–2022
Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2022
Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2022
Figure 14: Messaging traffic by message type, Morocco, 2011–2022
Figure 15: Messaging traffic by message type, Oman, 2011–2022
Figure 16: Messaging traffic by message type, Saudi Arabia, 2011–2022
Figure 17: Messaging traffic by message type, United Arab Emirates, 2011–2022
Figure 18: Overview of the main forecast outputs
Figure 19: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report



The Communication services in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT)1 providers.

 

A complete set of forecast results is provided in the accompanying Excel data annex.

The forecast is based on several sources:

 

*Analysys Mason’s internal research, including our regional forecasts, Connected Consumer surveys and various trackers in the Future Comms and Media research programme

*interviews with stakeholders in the communications market around the world.

Who Should Read This Report:
 

*Strategy and planning executives who are responsible for mobile operators’ communication services strategies and partnerships with OTT players.

*Executives in mobile operators’ technology and innovations teams who are responsible for developing communication services.

*Marketing executives at vendors of communication services equipment and software, as it will help them understand the needs of their operator customers and size the addressable market for their products.

Note; This report is delivered as a zip file (PPTX, PDF and Excel)


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