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The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (6 countries) 2015–2020

The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (6 countries) 2015–2020

Total telecoms and pay-TV revenue will not grow during the forecast period in Central And Eastern Europe, because traditional voice revenue is under pressure in both the mobile and fixed markets, and data revenue will not compensate for these significant losses.


Executive summary
Total telecoms revenue will decline slightly in the forecast period
Handset data revenue will show the greatest gains, and mobile voice the largest losses
Revenue will decline in all countries except Turkey, with the mobile markets faring worse in most markets
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Geographical coverage: 14 countries modelled individually, Russia and Turkey combined account for 58% of the entire region’s revenue
Market context: Telecoms services revenue accounted for 1.9% of GDP in 2014 and average monthly retail spend per capita was low at EUR11.8
Revenue and ARPU: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline, but fixed broadband and IPTV services will grow as their user bases increase
Mobile penetration: Multiple-SIM consolidation will cause mobile penetration to stabilise or decline in most countries
Mobile connections: 4G roll-out will gather pace during the forecast period
Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone demand will continue to grow strongly, even in countries where 4G is less advanced
Mobile ARPU: ARPU will decline steadily in most countries during the forecast period
Fixed services: Migration of voice users to VoBB will accelerate, while fixed broadband growth will slow down
Fixed broadband: Household penetration will continue to increase, but at a slower pace and with significant country-by-country variations
Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market
Individual country forecasts
Czech Republic: The telecoms market will continue to contract
as mobile and fixed voice revenue decline sharply
Czech Republic – mobile: ARPU decline will significantly slow down, however competition will continue to drive down revenue
Czech Republic – fixed: Price competition in broadband and lack of interest in voice will drive down revenue in the fixed market
Poland: Total telecoms service revenue will continue to decline
because price competition will continue to be intense
Poland – mobile: Price competition will put downward pressure on ARPU, despite the enrichment of the customer base
Poland – fixed: Broadband ASPU will be stable as customers move to faster services and quadruple-play’s impact will be limited
Russia: Retail revenue will decline as mobile price competition intensifies and growth in fixed broadband slows down
Russia – mobile: Market consolidation will drive a decline in the number of connections and stimulate competition
Russia – fixed: FTTH/B roll-out will drive fixed broadband growth, regional fragmentation of ISPs will limit broadband ASPU decline
Turkey: Strong expansion in the mobile and fixed broadband connections will drive continued revenue growth
Turkey – mobile: Regulation kept mobile ARPU stable and 4G’s arrival will bolster it further, fuelling revenue growth
Turkey – fixed: Fibre development combined with an improved economic environment will drive further fixed broadband growth
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About Analysys Mason
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2020
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type (2014–2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA’s share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2020
Figure 6: Metrics for 6 of the countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2014
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2020
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2020
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G’s share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2020
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015–2020
Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Czech Republic, 2010–2020
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2014–2020
Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2014–2020
Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Czech Republic, 2010–2020
Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Czech Republic, 2010–2020
Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Czech Republic, 2010–2020
Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Czech Republic, 2010–2020
Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Poland, 2010–2020
Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Poland, 2014–2020
Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Poland, 2014–2020
Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Poland, 2010–2020
Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Poland, 2010–2020
Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Poland
Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Poland, 2010–2020
Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Poland, 2010–2020
Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Poland
Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Russia, 2010–2020
Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Russia, 2014–2020
Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Russia, 2014–2020
Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Russia, 2010–2020
Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Russia, 2010–2020
Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Russia
Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Russia, 2010–2020
Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Russia, 2010–2020
Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia
Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia
Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Turkey, 2014–2020
Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Turkey, 2014–2020
Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Turkey, 2010–2020
Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Turkey, 2010–2020
Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Turkey
Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Turkey, 2010–2020
Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Turkey, 2010–2020
Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Turkey

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