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United States Navy Nuclear-powered submarines And Aircraft Carriers: resurgent Markets, New Technologies And Monopsony Competitors: 2019-2024 Analysis And Forecasts

United States Navy Nuclear-powered submarines And Aircraft Carriers:resurgent Markets, New Technologies And Monopsony Competitors:2019-2024 Analysis And Forecasts

Alfred T. Mahan, the famous naval strategist and author of The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, argued that national prosperity and power depended on control of the world's sea-lanes.: "Whoever rules the waves rules the world.“

Today, and for the last 78 years, the United States has ruled the waves and thereby ruled the world. And a major reason for its dominance, is the U.S. Navy’s fleet of nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers.

Since 9/11, U.S. military operations have been focused on the Middle East. However, resurging threats from peer and near-peer countries like Russia and China, as well as missile threats from Iran and North Korea, are shifting U.S. priorities towards higher-end capabilities.

After years of underinvestment, the U.S. Navy is focusing on rebuilding their aging fleet and procuring ships including submarines and aircraft carriers. The U.S. Navy currently has 283 deployable ships compared to a 355-ship goal.

After numerous up and down cycles, the U.S. Navy today is resurgent, thanks to the Trump Administration’s large increases in defense spending. In fact,. the U.S. Navy is in the early stages of the strongest procurement cycle since the Reagan administration.

This report provides an in-depth look at how the nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers markets will be impacted by the double-digit growth in U.S. Navy spending on these vessels over the next five to 30 years.

For background, there is a discussion of U.S. strategic nuclear forces and naval nuclear propulsion. A review of the operations, capabilities and strategy of the modern U.S Navy is given, followed by an analysis of the markets for nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers. A more detailed analysis of nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers technologies is provided. Finally, profiles of General Dynamics, Huntington Ingalls and BWX Technologies are given. These companies will be the primary beneficiaries of the U.S. Navy’s 30-year shipbuilding plan, especially for submarines and aircraft carriers. For readers not familiar with nuclear power and how nuclear reactors work, an appendix explains these technologies.

The report includes 34 tables and 57 figures.


CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
UNITED STATES STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES
Strategic Triad
Force Structure and Size During Cold War
Force Structure and Size After the Cold War
Current and Future Force Structure and Size
Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles
Modernization Plans and Programs
Ohio Replacement Program
Navy Force Posture
Current Force Structure
NAVAL NUCLEAR PROPULSION
Definition
Applications
Development History
Naval vs. Land Power Plants
Nuclear-Propulsion Advantages
Naval Power Plants
Naval Special Requirements
Reactor Compartment
Radiation
Nuclear Fuel
Decommissioning and Defueling
U.S. Naval Reactors
Naval Reactors Contractors
Reactor Designations
Aircraft Carrier Reactors
A4W Reactor
A1B Reactor
Submarine Reactors
S6G Reactor
S6W Reactor
S8G Reactor
S9G Reactor
S1B Reactor
Naval Reactors Budget
FY2020 Budget
Future Priorities
Naval Reactors Operations and Infrastructure
Naval Reactors Development
Advanced Test Reactor
Cobalt-60
S8G Prototype Refueling
Columbia-Class Reactor Systems Development
BWX Technologies
RESURGENT UNITED STATES NAVY
Key Facts
Navy Role in U.S. Defense Strategy
Aircraft Carrier as a National Force
High Seas
Carrier Strike Group
Expeditionary Strike Group
Carrier Strike Group vs. Expeditionary Strike Group
CSG as an Independent Combat System
ESG Projects Land-Based Power
Naval Vessels’ Role in U.S. Strategy
1960’s to 1980’s
1990’s
2000’s
Finite Lives
Multiyear Procurement
Smaller Operating Groups
Reduced Manning
Outsourcing
355-Ship Goal
Submarines: Largest Part Navy Spending
Next Tranche of Virginia-Class Submarines
12 Carriers Goal
Nuclear-Powered Submarines and Aircraft Carriers
U.S. Navy Largest in World
Major U.S. Navy Ship Types
U.S. Navy Coding System
U.S. Naval Shipyards
Rebuilding Aging Fleet
Evolution to 355-Ship Force
Shipbuilding Plan
Aggressive Growth Scenario
Efficient and Agile Industrial Base
Individual Ship Procurement by Class
Aircraft Carriers
Strategic Ballistic Missile Submarines
Attack Submarines
Digital Shipbuilding
Shipbuilding 4.0
Digital Twin
Model-Based Enterprise
Modular Construction Programs
Submarines
1-­3-­8
Next Steps
U.S. NAVY SHIPBUILDING MARKET
30-Year Overview
FYDP
Shipbuilding Plan
Long-Range Naval Vessel Inventory
Aggressive Growth Opportunity
Defense Industrial Base
Commercial Industrial Base
Annual Funding for Ship Construction
Navy Shipbuilding Market Value
Nuclear Propulsion Equipment Market
Sustainment Costs
Business Model as a Monopsony
NUCLEAR-POWERED SUBMARINES
U.S. Navy Nuclear Submarines Types
SSNs
Designations
Missions
Ohio-Class SSBNs
Submarine Construction Industrial Base
Columbia-Class Program
Program Name
Columbia Class Technology Efforts
Planned Procurement Quantity
Planned Procurement Schedule
Key Columbia-Class Design Features
Operation and Support Cost
Submarine Unified Build Strategy
Milestone B Approval
Columbia-Class Program Funding
GAO Review
Columbia Class Critical Technologies
Columbia Design and Construction Approach
Aggressive Build Schedule
Use of Advance Construction
Critical Technologies Challenges
Integrated Power System
Common Missile Compartment
Integrated Power System and Nuclear Reactor
Labor Hours
Cost Uncertainties
Schedule and Technical Risks
Nuclear Reactor Plant
Impact on Other Navy Shipbuilding Programs
Block Buy and Multiyear Procurement Contracting
U.S. Attack Submarine Force Level Goals
Los Angeles- and Seawolf-Class Boats
Virginia-Class Program
Three Boats Requested
Block V Boats
Joint Production Arrangement
Schedule and Cost Performance
Virginia Payload Module
Virginia-Class Costs
Acoustic and Other Improvements
Projected SSN Force Levels
Industrial-Base Challenges
Stealth Issues
SQUIDs
AIRCRAFT CARRIERS
Background
Current Navy Aircraft Carrier Force
Not Less Than 11 Carriers
Nine Carrier Air Wings
12 Carriers Goal
Dates for Achieving 12-Carrier Force
Aircraft Carrier Industrial Base
Gerald R. Ford Class Program
CVN-78 (Gerald R. Ford)
CVN-79 (John F. Kennedy)
Block Buy Contract
CVN-80 (Enterprise)
CVN-81 (Not Yet Named)
CVN-79, CVN-80, CVN-81 Costs
Smaller Aircraft Carriers
Nuclear Powerplant Problems
Transformers
Shock Testing
COMPANY PROFILES
BWX Technologies, Inc. (Overview, Financials, Nuclear Operations Group, Nuclear Power Group, Medical Isotopes Business, BWXT Nuclear Energy Canada, Competition, Joint Ventures, Customers, Submarines and Aircraft Carriers, Nuclear Cores Revenue, New Contracts)
General Dynamics Corporation (Overview, Marine Systems, Electric Boat, Virginia-Class Submarines, Industrial Base, Columbia-Class Submarines, CapEx, MRO)
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (Overview, Segments, Ingalls, Newport News, Aircraft Carriers, RCOH, Decommissioning, Nuclear-Powered Submarines, Virginia-Class Submarines, Columbia-Class Submarines, Fleet Support Services, Technical Solutions, Nuclear and Environmental Services, Employees, Customers, Two Aircraft Carriers at Once, Margins, Shipbuilding Modernization, Modular Building, Digital Shipbuilding, 3-D Mapping, Reality Capture and Laser Scanning, Visual Build Management, Augmented Reality)
APPENDIX 1
NUCLEAR REACTORS
Definition
Principles of Operation
Chain Reaction and Criticality
Reactor Control
Fissile and Fertile Materials
Heat Removal
Shielding
Critical Concentration and Size
Thermal, Intermediate and Fast Reactors
Reactor Design and Components
Core
Fuel Types
Coolants and Moderators
Reflectors
Reactor Control Elements
Structural Components
Coolant System
Containment System
Types of Reactors
Power Reactors
Light-Water Reactors
PWRs and BWRs
Advantages and Disadvantages
Fueling and Refueling LWRs
CANDU Reactors
Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactor
Other Power Reactors
Research Reactors
Production Reactors
Space Reactors
Ship-Propulsion Reactors
TABLES
1.) U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces Under START I and II by System and Number
2.) U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces Under New START by System and Number
3.) Naval Reactors Funding by Activity (Thousand Dollars): 2019-2024
4.) Naval Reactors Funding by Activity (Thousand Dollars) and Share (%): 2019
5.) Active U.S. Navy Submarines by Class: 2019
6.) U.S. Navy Active, In Commission and Under Construction Attack Submarines
7.) Active U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers by Class: 2019
8.) U.S. Navy Active, In Commission and Under Construction Aircraft Carriers: 2019
9.) U.S., China, Russia, India, France, UK, Italy, Germany, Brazil Naval Vessels by Type (Number): 2019
10.) Major U.S. Navy Ship Types
11.) U.S. Navy Ship Types: Designations and Definitions
12.) U.S. Naval Ship Construction: Defense Primes Shipyards
13.) U.S. Navy Vessels by Type/Class: 2014 FSA vs. 2016 FSA
14.) U.S. Naval Ship Construction by Type, Value ($ Million), Quantity (Number): 2019-2023
15.) Navy the Nation Needs by Ship Type (Number): 2019
16.) U.S. Navy FYDP Funding for Ship Building and Conversion by Type: 2020-2024
17.) U.S. Navy Long-Range Procurement Profile by Type of Ship (Number): 2020-2049
18.) U.S. Navy Battle Force Delivery Plan by Type of Ship (Number): 2020-2049
19.) U.S. Navy Battle Force Retirement Plan by Type of Ship (Number): 2020-2049
20.) U.S. Navy Battle Force Inventory by Type of Ship (Number): 2020-2049
21.) U.S. Navy Shipbuilding by Type of Ship ($ Million) and Growth Rate (%): 2017-2020
22.) U.S. Navy Virginia-Class Submarine Ship Cost Analysis: Propulsion
23.) U.S. Navy Nuclear Submarines and Aircraft Carriers Propulsion Equipment Market ($Million): 2017-2020
24.) Columbia-Class Program Funding by Element (Millions Dollars): FY19-FY23
25.) Columbia Class Critical Technologies as Identified by GAO in 2017
26.) Columbia-Class Program Funding (Million Dollars): FY19-FY23
27.) BWX Technologies Segments Overview
28.) BWX Technologies Income Statement by Segment: 2016-2018
29.) BWX Technologies Income Statement: 2017-2021
30.) BWXT NSG Contract Wins: 2017-2018
31.) General Dynamics Income Statement: 2017-2021
32.) General Dynamics Marine Systems Revenue by Segment: 2016-2018
33.) Huntington Ingalls Income Statement: 2017-2021
34.) Huntington Ingalls Income Statement by Segment: 2016-2018
FIGURES
1.) U.S. Strategic Weapons by Type (Launchers/Warheads) and Number 1960-1990
2.) U.S. Strategic Weapons by Type (Launchers & Warheads) and Number: 1991-2017
3.) Pressurized Water Reactor Nuclear Propulsion System Schematic
4.) Typical Submarine Reactor Compartment Location
5.) Naval Reactor Vessel Neutron and Fission Products from Uranium Fission
6.) Key ATR Parameters Compared with Those of a Commercial Pressurized Water Reactor
7.) U.S. Navy Fleet by Type (Number): 2018
8.) U.S. Navy Ship Battle Forces by Type of Vessel (Number): 2018
9.) Global Map of Exclusive Economic Zones and High Seas Oceanic Areas
10.) USS Stennis Strike Group 3
11.) U.S. Navy Carrier Strike Group by Components
12.) Expeditionary Strike Group
13.) Amphibious Ready Group
14.) U.S. Navy Ships Procured (Number): Force Structure, Current Plan, Aggressive Growth Plan: 1955-2048
15.) Naval Inventory (Number) by Type of Vessel Based on Steady, Sustainable Growth Procurement Plan: 2019-2048
16.) Aircraft Carrier: Nimitz-Class CVN-68
17.) U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier Production by Class (Number); 1955-2048
18.) Ohio-Class Ballistic Missile Submarine USS Michigan (SSBN 727)
19.) U.S. Navy Ballistic Missile Submarines by Class (Number); 1955-2048
20.) Los Angeles-Class Attack Submarine USS Asheville (SSN-758)
21.) U.S. Navy Attack Submarines by Class (Number); 1955-2048
22.) Digital Thread: Information Connected Digital Enterprise
23.) Matrixed Approach to Model-Based Implementation
24.) Model Base Enterprise, Engineering & Design Processes
25.) Model-Based Organizational Structures
26.) Aircraft Carrier GERALD R. FORD: The Big Picture (10+ Year Build Cycle, with a 50 Year Life)
27.) Newport News Shipbuilding Integrated Design/Build Culture
28.) Maximization of Modular Construction Benefit via 3D Product Model
29.) Virginia-Class Submarine Modular Construction
30.) John F. Kennedy-Class Aircraft Carrier (CVN79) Modular Construction
31.) U.S. Navy PB2020 vs. PB2019 Comparison (Number): 2020-2049
32.) U.S. Navy Procurement Profile by Class of Ship and Prime Contractor (Number): 2020-2049
33.) U.S. Navy New Construction Industrial Base Reductions: 1955-2017
34.) U.S. Navy Ship Procurement Industrial Base Boom and Bust Cycles: 1955-2017
35.) U.S. Navy Annual Funding for Ship Construction by Type: FY2020-2049
36.) Ohio (SSBN-726)-Class SSBN
37.) Responsible Parties and Key Components of Columbia-Class Submarine Program
38.) Columbia-Class (SSBN-826) Critical Technologies
39.) Design and Construction Phases for the Columbia-Class Submarine Program
40.) Super Modules and Their Respective Functions for the Columbia-Class Submarine Program
41.) Start of Component and Equipment Advance Construction for Each Super Module for the Columbia Class Submarine
42.) Comparison of Nuclear Mechanical Drive with Nuclear Electric Drive
43.) Virginia-Class Attack Submarine
44.) USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)
45.) Huntington Ingalls Aircraft Carrier Program Overview
46.) CVN-78 Gerald R. Ford Class Aircraft Carriers
47.) Virginia-Class Submarine Program Overview
48.) Columbia-Class Submarine Program Overview
49.) Fleet Support Programs
50.) Huntington Ingalls Customers: 2018
51.) Huntington Ingalls Participation (%) by Program: 2018
52.) Sequence of Events in the Fission of a Uranium Nucleus by a Neutron
53.) Chain Reaction in a Nuclear Reactor at a Critical State
54.) Principal Parts of a Nuclear Reactor
55.) Nuclear Reactor Core
56.) Cross-Section Pressurized-Water Reactor
57.) Cross-Section Boiling Water Reactor

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