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Electric Passenger Cars, Electric Commercial Vehicles, Lithium-ion Batteries, Battery Chemistries And Cobalt: Markets, Technologies And Opportunities:2018-2022 Analysis And Forecasts

Electric Passenger Cars, Electric Commercial Vehicles, Lithium-ion Batteries, Battery Chemistries And Cobalt: Markets, Technologies And Opportunities:2018-2022 Analysis And Forecasts

The EV revolution is only beginning. It is possible that by 2025, the global electric vehicle (EV) market could exceed 100 million vehicles sold, and that by 2050, oil-based, internal combustion (ICE) engine driven vehicles no longer will be produced. Further, governments are setting carbon emission targets for the automotive industry, while also subsidizing EV technology. Already, EV sales in Norway accounted for 32% of total new car sales in 2017. More significantly, China is investing heavily in EV technology and wants to become the market leader. These changes have been driven by several, underlying global trends over the past 10 years including technological improvements leading to steadily cheaper lithium-ion batteries with greater range, safety and reliability. Plus, EVs are gradually becoming comparable to ICEs from the consumer’s viewpoint Finally, demand for EVs will significantly impact demand for certain commodities, e.g. cobalt.

These issues and more are discussed in this report. Specifically, this report covers:

  • Market Overview: historical moment, EV revolution, structural shifts, global trend, commodities implications, EV market size and growth, lithium-ion battery market size and growth, China leading way, cobalt scarcity.
  • Electric Vehicles: rise of EVs, realistic expectations, end of ICEs, hybrid electric vehicles market, PHEVs market, pure electric vehicle market, ICE-EV inflection point, powertrain equivalence, OEM NEV offerings, China dominance.
  • Commercial Electric Vehicles: not same as light vehicles, real world cost and performance assumptions, charging infrastructure obstacles, battery scarcity premiums, Class 8 obstacles, technology obstacles, fuel cells vs. batteries, grid efficiency and costs.
  • Lithium-ion Batteries: types, verticals, advantages, components, cells and packs, expenses by types, operating margins, cost improvements and trends, chemicals mix, technology trends, shift to nickel, reuse/recycling.
  • Battery Chemistries: EV battery value chain, battery metals, cathode technology trends, cathode market size, cathode producers, technology roadmap, metals demand, cobalt in EV batteries, NMC 811, price trends, competitive environment.
  • Cobalt: supply, scrap recovery, DRC risk, China domination, explorations, new projects, supply shocks, substitution needed, EV cathodes, NMC 622, strategic reserves, inevitable deficits, metal vs. chemical balances, prices going higher.
In addition, to support this analysis, the report contains 54 tables and 75 figures.


CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
Report Objectives
Methodology and Sources
Statistical Notes
MARKET OVERVIEW
Historical Moment
Dawn of the Lithium-ion Age
Electric Vehicle Revolution
Structural Shifts
Global Trend
Commodities Implications
EV Market Size and Growth
EVs Need Batteries
NMC and NCA Most Valuable
Lithium-ion Batteries Market Size and Growth
China Leads Electric Car Revolution
Cobalt Scarcest Vital Material
DRC Controls Supply
Glencore’s Outlook
ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Rise of EVs
All Forecasts Are Anecdotal
Realistic Growth Expectations
Light Vehicles Definition
Internal Combustion Engine
Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Full Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Plug-in Hybrids
Battery Electric Vehicles/EVs
Global Light Vehicle Sales
ICE Share of Global Vehicles Sales
Mild Hybrids Sales
HEV and PHEV Sales
Electric Vehicles Sales
xEVS Sales
Fuel Cell Vehicles Sales
New Energy Vehicle Sales
Inflection Point in ICE and EV Costs
Powertrain Costs Equivalence
OEM NEV Strategies
Current EV and PHEV Models by Brand
China Will Dominate
COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Commercial Electric Vehicles Different Than Electric Light Vehicles
Battery Range and Cost Assumptions Not Realistic
Charging Infrastructure Obstacles
CEVs Still Need Transmissions
Real World Assumptions
Realistic Scenario
Daily Charge Utilization
No Battery Degradation Assumed
What If There Are No Shorter Routes
Operators Today are Human
Scarcity Premium for Batteries
Battery Cost and Payback
Revenue Loss and Battery Weight
Class 8 Trucks Face Similar Obstacles
Other Class 8 Assumptions
Driving >210 Miles Per Day
Drayage/Terminal Tractors
3rd Party Battery Leasing Obstacles
No Standardization of Battery Design
Swapping Battery Packs Is Difficult
Prohibitive Charging Investment
Fuel Cell Obstacles
Significant Infrastructure Obstacles
Charging a Fleet of Transit Buses
Prohibitive Infrastructure Costs
Required Technology Not Yet Developed
Alternative Charging Models
Grid Efficiency and Costs
Requirements to Achieve Grid Efficiency
Other Issues
Thermal Runaway
Reliance on Rare Earth Materials
LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES
Battery Types, Verticals and Applications
Li-ion Battery Advantages
Disposable vs. Rechargeable Batteries
How Rechargeable Batteries Work
Li-ion Battery Components
Lithium-ion Battery Shapes
18650 vs. 2170
Battery Cells and Packs
Battery Energy Level and Lifespan
Battery Cost vs Selling Price
EV Battery Cost Structures
Technical Specifications and Materials
Best Cell Type
Battery Specification Differences
Cell Prices vs. Cell Costs
Raw Materials vs. Non-Materials Expenses
Operating Margins
Battery Cost Improvements
Ways to Reduce EV Battery Manufacturing Costs
Cost Drivers
Why Battery Costs Are Falling
Increasing Demand for EVs
Improving Chemical Material Mix of Battery Cells
Increasing Thickness of Electrodes
Technical Advancements in Cathodes, Anodes and Electrolytes
Innovations in Manufacturing Process
Battery Cost Structure
Tesla Model S
BMW i3
Costs in 2030
Material Costs
Other Costs
2030 Targets
Next Generation Battery Technology
Mild/Micro Hybridization a Big Growth Area
Battery Manufacturing Costs
Battery Pack Cost and EV Driving Range
Nickel to Benefit
NMC Batteries Key for EVs
Shift to Nickel
Battery Reuse and Recycling
BATTERY CHEMISTRIES
EV Battery Industry Value Chain
Battery Metals
Cathodes
Major Changes Ahead
Chemistries
Cathode Market Size
Cathode Producers
Cathode Capacity Additions
Technology Roadmap
NMC 811
Implications for Metal Demand
Cobalt
Bottom Line
Battery-Powered Growth
Market Is Tight
Price Goes Higher
2017 Price Spike
Battery Demand
Cobalt in EV Batteries
Nickel
Price Increases and Availability Issues
Competitive Environment
Ecopro
L&F
COBALT
Description
Key Points About the Cobalt Market
Cobalt Supply
Scrap Recovery
DRC Risk
China Cobalt Domination
Cobalt Exploration
New Cobalt Projects
Supply Shocks
Substitution Needed for EVs
Consumer Electronics and Other Applications
Superalloys
Electric Vehicles and Cobalt
EV Cathodes
NMC622 Becomes Dominant
Potential Scenarios
EVs Overtake Portable Electronics
NMC811
Cobalt Demand Overestimates
Strategic Reserves
Deficits Inevitable
Metal vs. Chemical Balances
Forecast Risks
Price Going Higher
Outlook
TABLES
1.) Global New Energy Vehicle Sales (Units), ASP/Car ($), Market Value ($ Billion), Growth Rate (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030
2.) Global New Energy Vehicle Lithium-ion Battery Sales (GWh), OEM Battery Pack ASP ($/kWh). Market Value ($ Billion), Share of NEV Market (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030
3.) Cobalt Focused Mining Companies by Market Cap: 2018
4.) Various Predictions of EV Sales
5.) World Light Vehicle Sales (Units), Global Vehicle Sales (Units), Light Vehicles Share of Total Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
6.) World Mild Hybrids Sales (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), Mild Hybrids Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
7.) World Mild HEV Sales (Units), World PHEV Sales (Units), Total HEV and PHEV Sales (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), HEV and PHEV Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
8.) World Electric Vehicles Sales (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), Electric Vehicles Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
9.) World xEV (HEV, PHEV, EV) Sales (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), xEV Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
10.) World Fuel Cell Vehicles Production (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), Fuel Cell Vehicles Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
11.) World New Energy Vehicles Sales (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), New Energy Vehicles Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
12.) EV Model Launches by Group: 2009-2020
13.) EV and Plug-in Hybrids Currently Available (ex-China) by Model, Powertrain, Capacity (kWh), Range (km), Price ($): 4Q 2017
14.) Electric Refuse Truck Economics Across a Range of Assumptions
15.) Optimistic Electric Class 8 OTR Assumptions
16.) Realistic Electric Class 8 OTR Assumptions
17.) Electric Transit Bus Charging Max Load Metrics (kw)
18.) Li-ion Battery Types and Major Verticals and Applications
19.) Principal Lithium-ion Battery Materials Overview
20.) Commercial Battery Technologies Compared
21.) Major EV Models: Range Per Charge
22.) Major EV Models: Battery Guarantee
23.) EV Cost Structures: Battery Makers, Auto OEMs, Battery Cells, Battery Pack, kWh Capacity Installed, Drive Range, Battery Supply/Demand, Powertrain Cost, Etc.: 2015-2030
24.) Auto Batteries Density Specs Comparison
25.) Battery Costs Breakdown by Component: 2015-2020
26.) EV Battery Cell Cost Breakdown by Material Types, Depreciation, Labor, Utilities, R&D, SG&A, Abnormals ($/kWh): 2015-2030
27.) Full Range of Vehicle Electrification
28.) Stop/Start Systems Growth and Penetration by Region (Units, %): 2014-2020
29.) Average Battery Size by xEV
30.) xEV Penetration of New Car Sales by Type (%) vs. xEV Share of Battery Market by Type (%): 2020
31.) China NMC Battery Cell Cost Structure: 2017
32.) Three Principal Advanced Battery Recycling Technologies
33.) Announced NMC and NCA Capacity Additions by Company: 2017-2021
34.) Comparison of Current Cathode Chemistries Characteristics
35.) Comparison of Current Cathode Chemistries Performance
36.) Comparison of Cell Manufacturers, Customers, Current and Future Cathode Chemistries
37.) Lithium Supply/Demand Summary: 2015-2022
38.) Battery Cathode Chemistries and Cobalt Contents
39.) Cobalt Supply/Demand Summary: 2014-2022
40.) Nickel Supply/Demand Summary: 2014-2022
41.) Cathode Materials Usage per kWh
42.) Ratio of EV-Use Materials to Reserves: 2017
43.) Cost Sensitivity of Cathode Materials to 10% increase in Raw Material Prices
44.) Rechargeable Battery Value Chain Companies by Nationality, Products, Ticker: 2018
45.) Key Points to Know About the Cobalt Market
46.) Potential Cobalt Projects
47.) Companies with Exposure to Cobalt Supply
48.) Selected Cobalt Development Companies
49.) Li-ion Battery Cathode Chemistries and Cobalt Content
50.) 2025 Demand Scenarios: EV Market Penetration Rate (%) vs. Cobalt per Battery
51.) Base Case Calculation for EV Cobalt Demand, Key Assumptions, Share by Chemistry, Content Per Car: 2014-2025
52.) Cobalt Substitution Risk by End-Demand Segment
53.) Cobalt Supply-Demand Balance: 2015-2025
54.) Cobalt Supply/Demand Summary: 2014-2022
FIGURES
1.) Types of Lithium-ion Batteries
2.) Global Electric Vehicle Sales by Country (Million Units): 2015-2040
3.) Cobalt Supply-Demand Balance (MT) and Price ($/lb.): 2007-2020
4.) Cobalt Price ($/lb.): 2013-2018
5.) U.S. Hybrid Electric Vehicle, Plug-in HEV, Electric Vehicle Sales by OEM (Units) and Percent of Total U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (%) 2000-2016
6.) Components Inside an Electric Vehicle
7.) Global EV Sales by Region (Million Units): 2016-2025
8.) Global EV Sales by Region (%): 2016-2025
9.) Global PHEV Sales by Region (Million Units): 2015-2025
10.) Depth of Discharge (%) vs. Number of Cycles: NMC vs. LiP04
11.) Battery Costs Nearing Estimated Potential ($/kWh): 2009-2017
12.) Modeled vs. Achieved Battery Costs ($/kWh)
13.) Annual Miles Travelled by Class 5-7 Commercial Vehicles by Type
14.) Peak Load Considerations for 100 Chevy Volts, 100 Medium-Duty E-Trucks, TransAmerca Pyramid Building, 50 E-Buses (MW)
15.) EV's Could Potentially Flatten the Daily Net Load Curve (MW/Hour): 2012-2020
16.) Rare Earth Materials Required by Vehicle Type (Grams)
17.) Rare Earth Reserves Share by Country (%): 2017
18.) Rare Earth Consumption by Application (%): 2017
19.) Lithium-Ion Battery Function Schematic
20.) Schematic of Automotive Battery Components
21.) Automotive Battery Lithium-ion Cell Layouts
22.) Structure of Batteries: Cells and Packs
23.) EV Cell Price vs. Cost (US$/kWh): 2011-2015
24.) EV Cell Price vs. Cost (US$/kWh): 2015-2030
25.) Global EV Battery Operating Margin Outlook (Cell Basis, Global Average): 2011-2030
26.) EV Battery Cell Cost Breakdown (%): 2015
27.) EV Battery Cell Cost Breakdown (%): 2020
28.) Cost Reduction Trend ($/kWh) for Materials, Depreciation and Abnormals: 2015-2030
29.) Competitiveness of EVs Under Various Gasoline and Battery Cost Scenarios
30.) Auto (Prismatic/Pouch) Cell Costs: 2005-2022
31.) $150 per kWh Average Battery Cost Possible By 2020
32.) Gen-1, Gen-2, Gen-3 Li-ion Battery Chemistries
33.) Future Gen Anode Trends by Material
34.) Energy Storage Technologies Readiness by Type: 2020 Accessible Market vs. Readiness Level
35.) Battery Technology Introduction Estimated Timelines: 2000-2035
36.) EV Manufacturing Costs by Type (%): 2017
37.) EV Battery Manufacturing Costs by Input (%): 2017
38.) EV Battery Manufacturing Costs by Component (%): 2017
39.) Electric Vehicle Powertrain Cost Breakdown for Battery Cell/Pack vs. Wires/Motors ($): 2015-2030
40.) Value of Cathode Metal by Vehicle Type at Current Spot Prices Assuming 100% Yield ($): 2017
41.) EV Battery Industry Value Chain and Major Players by Segment: 2018
42.) Periodic Table: Battery Materials
43.) Li-ion Cathode Market by Type (NMC, NCA, LFP/LMO) and Volume (kT): 2015-2025
44.) NMC and NCA Cathodes Market Shares by Producer (%): 2017
45.) EV Cathode Chemistries Compared
46.) Gen-1, Gen-2, Gen-3 Cathode Chemistries
47.) NMC Cathode Development Roadmap
48.) Cost Evolution from G1 to G3 NMC Cathode Materials
49.) NMC Composition Diagram
50.) Li-Ion Battery Technology Roadmap: 2013-2020
51.) NMC Material Development and Cell Roadmap
52.) Next Generation Cell: Simple Calculation
53.) Cathode Metal Intensity by Type: 2012-2030
54.) Cumulative Lithium Demand from EVs vs. Global Reserves and Resources: 2017-2040
55.) Cobalt Demand by End Use (% kt): 2014-2025
56.) Cumulative Cobalt Demand from EVs vs. Global Reserves: 2017-2040
57.) Cumulative Nickel Demand from EVs vs. Global Reserves: 2017-2040
58.) Ecopro and L&F Company Overviews
59.) Cobalt Chips
60.) Refined Cobalt Supply by Product Type
61.) Chinese-Controlled Share of Global Cobalt Output (Refined Cobalt, Cobalt Chemicals, Mine Supply): 2010-2020
62.) China Cobalt Imports by Type: 2003-2017
63.) China Cobalt Imports by Source: 2010-2017
64.) World Cobalt Reserves by Country: 2017
65.) Cobalt Exploration Budgets by Type ($ Million): 2012-2017
66.) Cobalt Demand by End Use (% kt): 2014-2025
67.) Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel Share of Li-ion Batteries Usage (%): 2014-2025
68.) Cobalt Usage in Electronic Device by Type (kt): 2010-2025
69.) Demand from One Million EV Batteries as % of Market Size by Metal
70.) EV Battery Chemistry Market Shares (%): 2015-2025
71.) EV Battery Chemistry Energy Density vs. Safety and Lifespan
72.) Cobalt Market Balance (kt, Weeks of Inventory): 2007-2025
73.) Cobalt Market Balance by Product Form-Metal vs. Chemicals (kt): 2007-2025
74.) Potential Impacts on Cobalt Market Size in 2025 from
Various Scenarios
75.) Cobalt Price Forecast ($/lb.): 2018-2021

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