Electric Passenger Cars, Electric Commercial Vehicles, Lithium-ion Batteries, Battery Chemistries And Cobalt: Markets, Technologies And Opportunities:2018-2022 Analysis And Forecasts
The EV revolution is only beginning. It is possible that by 2025, the global electric vehicle (EV) market could exceed 100 million vehicles sold, and that by 2050, oil-based, internal combustion (ICE) engine driven vehicles no longer will be produced. Further, governments are setting carbon emission targets for the automotive industry, while also subsidizing EV technology. Already, EV sales in Norway accounted for 32% of total new car sales in 2017. More significantly, China is investing heavily in EV technology and wants to become the market leader. These changes have been driven by several, underlying global trends over the past 10 years including technological improvements leading to steadily cheaper lithium-ion batteries with greater range, safety and reliability. Plus, EVs are gradually becoming comparable to ICEs from the consumer’s viewpoint Finally, demand for EVs will significantly impact demand for certain commodities, e.g. cobalt.
These issues and more are discussed in this report. Specifically, this report covers:
- Market Overview: historical moment, EV revolution, structural shifts, global trend, commodities implications, EV market size and growth, lithium-ion battery market size and growth, China leading way, cobalt scarcity.
- Electric Vehicles: rise of EVs, realistic expectations, end of ICEs, hybrid electric vehicles market, PHEVs market, pure electric vehicle market, ICE-EV inflection point, powertrain equivalence, OEM NEV offerings, China dominance.
- Commercial Electric Vehicles: not same as light vehicles, real world cost and performance assumptions, charging infrastructure obstacles, battery scarcity premiums, Class 8 obstacles, technology obstacles, fuel cells vs. batteries, grid efficiency and costs.
- Lithium-ion Batteries: types, verticals, advantages, components, cells and packs, expenses by types, operating margins, cost improvements and trends, chemicals mix, technology trends, shift to nickel, reuse/recycling.
- Battery Chemistries: EV battery value chain, battery metals, cathode technology trends, cathode market size, cathode producers, technology roadmap, metals demand, cobalt in EV batteries, NMC 811, price trends, competitive environment.
- Cobalt: supply, scrap recovery, DRC risk, China domination, explorations, new projects, supply shocks, substitution needed, EV cathodes, NMC 622, strategic reserves, inevitable deficits, metal vs. chemical balances, prices going higher.
- CONTENTS
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- INTRODUCTION
- Report Objectives
- Methodology and Sources
- Statistical Notes
- MARKET OVERVIEW
- Historical Moment
- Dawn of the Lithium-ion Age
- Electric Vehicle Revolution
- Structural Shifts
- Global Trend
- Commodities Implications
- EV Market Size and Growth
- EVs Need Batteries
- NMC and NCA Most Valuable
- Lithium-ion Batteries Market Size and Growth
- China Leads Electric Car Revolution
- Cobalt Scarcest Vital Material
- DRC Controls Supply
- Glencore’s Outlook
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES
- Rise of EVs
- All Forecasts Are Anecdotal
- Realistic Growth Expectations
- Light Vehicles Definition
- Internal Combustion Engine
- Hybrid Electric Vehicles
- Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicles
- Full Hybrid Electric Vehicles
- Plug-in Hybrids
- Battery Electric Vehicles/EVs
- Global Light Vehicle Sales
- ICE Share of Global Vehicles Sales
- Mild Hybrids Sales
- HEV and PHEV Sales
- Electric Vehicles Sales
- xEVS Sales
- Fuel Cell Vehicles Sales
- New Energy Vehicle Sales
- Inflection Point in ICE and EV Costs
- Powertrain Costs Equivalence
- OEM NEV Strategies
- Current EV and PHEV Models by Brand
- China Will Dominate
- COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES
- Commercial Electric Vehicles Different Than Electric Light Vehicles
- Battery Range and Cost Assumptions Not Realistic
- Charging Infrastructure Obstacles
- CEVs Still Need Transmissions
- Real World Assumptions
- Realistic Scenario
- Daily Charge Utilization
- No Battery Degradation Assumed
- What If There Are No Shorter Routes
- Operators Today are Human
- Scarcity Premium for Batteries
- Battery Cost and Payback
- Revenue Loss and Battery Weight
- Class 8 Trucks Face Similar Obstacles
- Other Class 8 Assumptions
- Driving >210 Miles Per Day
- Drayage/Terminal Tractors
- 3rd Party Battery Leasing Obstacles
- No Standardization of Battery Design
- Swapping Battery Packs Is Difficult
- Prohibitive Charging Investment
- Fuel Cell Obstacles
- Significant Infrastructure Obstacles
- Charging a Fleet of Transit Buses
- Prohibitive Infrastructure Costs
- Required Technology Not Yet Developed
- Alternative Charging Models
- Grid Efficiency and Costs
- Requirements to Achieve Grid Efficiency
- Other Issues
- Thermal Runaway
- Reliance on Rare Earth Materials
- LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES
- Battery Types, Verticals and Applications
- Li-ion Battery Advantages
- Disposable vs. Rechargeable Batteries
- How Rechargeable Batteries Work
- Li-ion Battery Components
- Lithium-ion Battery Shapes
- 18650 vs. 2170
- Battery Cells and Packs
- Battery Energy Level and Lifespan
- Battery Cost vs Selling Price
- EV Battery Cost Structures
- Technical Specifications and Materials
- Best Cell Type
- Battery Specification Differences
- Cell Prices vs. Cell Costs
- Raw Materials vs. Non-Materials Expenses
- Operating Margins
- Battery Cost Improvements
- Ways to Reduce EV Battery Manufacturing Costs
- Cost Drivers
- Why Battery Costs Are Falling
- Increasing Demand for EVs
- Improving Chemical Material Mix of Battery Cells
- Increasing Thickness of Electrodes
- Technical Advancements in Cathodes, Anodes and Electrolytes
- Innovations in Manufacturing Process
- Battery Cost Structure
- Tesla Model S
- BMW i3
- Costs in 2030
- Material Costs
- Other Costs
- 2030 Targets
- Next Generation Battery Technology
- Mild/Micro Hybridization a Big Growth Area
- Battery Manufacturing Costs
- Battery Pack Cost and EV Driving Range
- Nickel to Benefit
- NMC Batteries Key for EVs
- Shift to Nickel
- Battery Reuse and Recycling
- BATTERY CHEMISTRIES
- EV Battery Industry Value Chain
- Battery Metals
- Cathodes
- Major Changes Ahead
- Chemistries
- Cathode Market Size
- Cathode Producers
- Cathode Capacity Additions
- Technology Roadmap
- NMC 811
- Implications for Metal Demand
- Cobalt
- Bottom Line
- Battery-Powered Growth
- Market Is Tight
- Price Goes Higher
- 2017 Price Spike
- Battery Demand
- Cobalt in EV Batteries
- Nickel
- Price Increases and Availability Issues
- Competitive Environment
- Ecopro
- L&F
- COBALT
- Description
- Key Points About the Cobalt Market
- Cobalt Supply
- Scrap Recovery
- DRC Risk
- China Cobalt Domination
- Cobalt Exploration
- New Cobalt Projects
- Supply Shocks
- Substitution Needed for EVs
- Consumer Electronics and Other Applications
- Superalloys
- Electric Vehicles and Cobalt
- EV Cathodes
- NMC622 Becomes Dominant
- Potential Scenarios
- EVs Overtake Portable Electronics
- NMC811
- Cobalt Demand Overestimates
- Strategic Reserves
- Deficits Inevitable
- Metal vs. Chemical Balances
- Forecast Risks
- Price Going Higher
- Outlook
- TABLES
- 1.) Global New Energy Vehicle Sales (Units), ASP/Car ($), Market Value ($ Billion), Growth Rate (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030
- 2.) Global New Energy Vehicle Lithium-ion Battery Sales (GWh), OEM Battery Pack ASP ($/kWh). Market Value ($ Billion), Share of NEV Market (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030
- 3.) Cobalt Focused Mining Companies by Market Cap: 2018
- 4.) Various Predictions of EV Sales
- 5.) World Light Vehicle Sales (Units), Global Vehicle Sales (Units), Light Vehicles Share of Total Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
- 6.) World Mild Hybrids Sales (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), Mild Hybrids Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
- 7.) World Mild HEV Sales (Units), World PHEV Sales (Units), Total HEV and PHEV Sales (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), HEV and PHEV Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
- 8.) World Electric Vehicles Sales (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), Electric Vehicles Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
- 9.) World xEV (HEV, PHEV, EV) Sales (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), xEV Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
- 10.) World Fuel Cell Vehicles Production (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), Fuel Cell Vehicles Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
- 11.) World New Energy Vehicles Sales (Units), World Vehicle Sales (Units), New Energy Vehicles Share of World Vehicle Sales (%), CAGR (%): 2015-2020 by Year, 2025, 2030, 2050
- 12.) EV Model Launches by Group: 2009-2020
- 13.) EV and Plug-in Hybrids Currently Available (ex-China) by Model, Powertrain, Capacity (kWh), Range (km), Price ($): 4Q 2017
- 14.) Electric Refuse Truck Economics Across a Range of Assumptions
- 15.) Optimistic Electric Class 8 OTR Assumptions
- 16.) Realistic Electric Class 8 OTR Assumptions
- 17.) Electric Transit Bus Charging Max Load Metrics (kw)
- 18.) Li-ion Battery Types and Major Verticals and Applications
- 19.) Principal Lithium-ion Battery Materials Overview
- 20.) Commercial Battery Technologies Compared
- 21.) Major EV Models: Range Per Charge
- 22.) Major EV Models: Battery Guarantee
- 23.) EV Cost Structures: Battery Makers, Auto OEMs, Battery Cells, Battery Pack, kWh Capacity Installed, Drive Range, Battery Supply/Demand, Powertrain Cost, Etc.: 2015-2030
- 24.) Auto Batteries Density Specs Comparison
- 25.) Battery Costs Breakdown by Component: 2015-2020
- 26.) EV Battery Cell Cost Breakdown by Material Types, Depreciation, Labor, Utilities, R&D, SG&A, Abnormals ($/kWh): 2015-2030
- 27.) Full Range of Vehicle Electrification
- 28.) Stop/Start Systems Growth and Penetration by Region (Units, %): 2014-2020
- 29.) Average Battery Size by xEV
- 30.) xEV Penetration of New Car Sales by Type (%) vs. xEV Share of Battery Market by Type (%): 2020
- 31.) China NMC Battery Cell Cost Structure: 2017
- 32.) Three Principal Advanced Battery Recycling Technologies
- 33.) Announced NMC and NCA Capacity Additions by Company: 2017-2021
- 34.) Comparison of Current Cathode Chemistries Characteristics
- 35.) Comparison of Current Cathode Chemistries Performance
- 36.) Comparison of Cell Manufacturers, Customers, Current and Future Cathode Chemistries
- 37.) Lithium Supply/Demand Summary: 2015-2022
- 38.) Battery Cathode Chemistries and Cobalt Contents
- 39.) Cobalt Supply/Demand Summary: 2014-2022
- 40.) Nickel Supply/Demand Summary: 2014-2022
- 41.) Cathode Materials Usage per kWh
- 42.) Ratio of EV-Use Materials to Reserves: 2017
- 43.) Cost Sensitivity of Cathode Materials to 10% increase in Raw Material Prices
- 44.) Rechargeable Battery Value Chain Companies by Nationality, Products, Ticker: 2018
- 45.) Key Points to Know About the Cobalt Market
- 46.) Potential Cobalt Projects
- 47.) Companies with Exposure to Cobalt Supply
- 48.) Selected Cobalt Development Companies
- 49.) Li-ion Battery Cathode Chemistries and Cobalt Content
- 50.) 2025 Demand Scenarios: EV Market Penetration Rate (%) vs. Cobalt per Battery
- 51.) Base Case Calculation for EV Cobalt Demand, Key Assumptions, Share by Chemistry, Content Per Car: 2014-2025
- 52.) Cobalt Substitution Risk by End-Demand Segment
- 53.) Cobalt Supply-Demand Balance: 2015-2025
- 54.) Cobalt Supply/Demand Summary: 2014-2022
- FIGURES
- 1.) Types of Lithium-ion Batteries
- 2.) Global Electric Vehicle Sales by Country (Million Units): 2015-2040
- 3.) Cobalt Supply-Demand Balance (MT) and Price ($/lb.): 2007-2020
- 4.) Cobalt Price ($/lb.): 2013-2018
- 5.) U.S. Hybrid Electric Vehicle, Plug-in HEV, Electric Vehicle Sales by OEM (Units) and Percent of Total U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (%) 2000-2016
- 6.) Components Inside an Electric Vehicle
- 7.) Global EV Sales by Region (Million Units): 2016-2025
- 8.) Global EV Sales by Region (%): 2016-2025
- 9.) Global PHEV Sales by Region (Million Units): 2015-2025
- 10.) Depth of Discharge (%) vs. Number of Cycles: NMC vs. LiP04
- 11.) Battery Costs Nearing Estimated Potential ($/kWh): 2009-2017
- 12.) Modeled vs. Achieved Battery Costs ($/kWh)
- 13.) Annual Miles Travelled by Class 5-7 Commercial Vehicles by Type
- 14.) Peak Load Considerations for 100 Chevy Volts, 100 Medium-Duty E-Trucks, TransAmerca Pyramid Building, 50 E-Buses (MW)
- 15.) EV's Could Potentially Flatten the Daily Net Load Curve (MW/Hour): 2012-2020
- 16.) Rare Earth Materials Required by Vehicle Type (Grams)
- 17.) Rare Earth Reserves Share by Country (%): 2017
- 18.) Rare Earth Consumption by Application (%): 2017
- 19.) Lithium-Ion Battery Function Schematic
- 20.) Schematic of Automotive Battery Components
- 21.) Automotive Battery Lithium-ion Cell Layouts
- 22.) Structure of Batteries: Cells and Packs
- 23.) EV Cell Price vs. Cost (US$/kWh): 2011-2015
- 24.) EV Cell Price vs. Cost (US$/kWh): 2015-2030
- 25.) Global EV Battery Operating Margin Outlook (Cell Basis, Global Average): 2011-2030
- 26.) EV Battery Cell Cost Breakdown (%): 2015
- 27.) EV Battery Cell Cost Breakdown (%): 2020
- 28.) Cost Reduction Trend ($/kWh) for Materials, Depreciation and Abnormals: 2015-2030
- 29.) Competitiveness of EVs Under Various Gasoline and Battery Cost Scenarios
- 30.) Auto (Prismatic/Pouch) Cell Costs: 2005-2022
- 31.) $150 per kWh Average Battery Cost Possible By 2020
- 32.) Gen-1, Gen-2, Gen-3 Li-ion Battery Chemistries
- 33.) Future Gen Anode Trends by Material
- 34.) Energy Storage Technologies Readiness by Type: 2020 Accessible Market vs. Readiness Level
- 35.) Battery Technology Introduction Estimated Timelines: 2000-2035
- 36.) EV Manufacturing Costs by Type (%): 2017
- 37.) EV Battery Manufacturing Costs by Input (%): 2017
- 38.) EV Battery Manufacturing Costs by Component (%): 2017
- 39.) Electric Vehicle Powertrain Cost Breakdown for Battery Cell/Pack vs. Wires/Motors ($): 2015-2030
- 40.) Value of Cathode Metal by Vehicle Type at Current Spot Prices Assuming 100% Yield ($): 2017
- 41.) EV Battery Industry Value Chain and Major Players by Segment: 2018
- 42.) Periodic Table: Battery Materials
- 43.) Li-ion Cathode Market by Type (NMC, NCA, LFP/LMO) and Volume (kT): 2015-2025
- 44.) NMC and NCA Cathodes Market Shares by Producer (%): 2017
- 45.) EV Cathode Chemistries Compared
- 46.) Gen-1, Gen-2, Gen-3 Cathode Chemistries
- 47.) NMC Cathode Development Roadmap
- 48.) Cost Evolution from G1 to G3 NMC Cathode Materials
- 49.) NMC Composition Diagram
- 50.) Li-Ion Battery Technology Roadmap: 2013-2020
- 51.) NMC Material Development and Cell Roadmap
- 52.) Next Generation Cell: Simple Calculation
- 53.) Cathode Metal Intensity by Type: 2012-2030
- 54.) Cumulative Lithium Demand from EVs vs. Global Reserves and Resources: 2017-2040
- 55.) Cobalt Demand by End Use (% kt): 2014-2025
- 56.) Cumulative Cobalt Demand from EVs vs. Global Reserves: 2017-2040
- 57.) Cumulative Nickel Demand from EVs vs. Global Reserves: 2017-2040
- 58.) Ecopro and L&F Company Overviews
- 59.) Cobalt Chips
- 60.) Refined Cobalt Supply by Product Type
- 61.) Chinese-Controlled Share of Global Cobalt Output (Refined Cobalt, Cobalt Chemicals, Mine Supply): 2010-2020
- 62.) China Cobalt Imports by Type: 2003-2017
- 63.) China Cobalt Imports by Source: 2010-2017
- 64.) World Cobalt Reserves by Country: 2017
- 65.) Cobalt Exploration Budgets by Type ($ Million): 2012-2017
- 66.) Cobalt Demand by End Use (% kt): 2014-2025
- 67.) Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel Share of Li-ion Batteries Usage (%): 2014-2025
- 68.) Cobalt Usage in Electronic Device by Type (kt): 2010-2025
- 69.) Demand from One Million EV Batteries as % of Market Size by Metal
- 70.) EV Battery Chemistry Market Shares (%): 2015-2025
- 71.) EV Battery Chemistry Energy Density vs. Safety and Lifespan
- 72.) Cobalt Market Balance (kt, Weeks of Inventory): 2007-2025
- 73.) Cobalt Market Balance by Product Form-Metal vs. Chemicals (kt): 2007-2025
- 74.) Potential Impacts on Cobalt Market Size in 2025 from
- Various Scenarios
- 75.) Cobalt Price Forecast ($/lb.): 2018-2021
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