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Pharmaceuticals: Survival of the 'Fittest': AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline and Wyeth: Can competitive advantage be sustained without M&A in the wake of Pfizer/Pharmacia? Abstract Introduction: Declining R&D productivity, rafts of patent expiries and sliding investor confidence have made the pharmaceutical industry an increasingly tough place to return strong growth. The ability of big pharma to consistently return double-digit growth is fading to be replaced by an environment where the weak will be separated from the strong. This Brief analyses the potential of five key big pharma players— AstraZeneca, BMS, Eli Lilly, GSK and Wyeth— to maintain growth over the next six years. Scope: * Ethical sales forecasts for AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline and Wyeth between 2002 and 2007 * Comparative analysis of strategic measures such as generic risk, R&D dependence and productivity for the five profiled companies between 2001 and 2007 * Benchmarking of the five profiled players by financial ratios in 2001 including profit margins, cost ratios and liquidity * Assessment of the ability of each company to survive as an independent entity following the planned merger of Pfizer and Pharmacia * Evaluation of the potential of mergers of AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and Wyeth with GlaxoSmithKline. Report Highlights: Datamonitor’s analysis of the leading 16 pharmaceutical companies between 2001 and 2007 suggests that combined sales will grow at a CAGR of just 5.2 percent, with no company posting a CAGR of greater than 10 percent based on the potential of existing marketed and pipeline products.Of the five companies analyzed, Datamonitor believes that three, GlaxoSmithKline, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Wyeth are likely candidates to be directly involved in the next round of industry consolidation.Eli Lilly and AstraZeneca would make the best partners for GlaxoSmithKline, combining the latter’s commercialization strengths with a partner’s valuable portfolio and pipeline. A merger with Wyeth may give a complementary portfolio and a short-term revenue boost, but the long term consequences of such a deal would be a major concern if it became reality. Reasons to Purchase: * Understand the implications of the planned Pfizer/Pharmacia merger and determine the most likely players to engage in further industry consolidation * Assess the R&D productivity and reliance on licensing of leading players and evaluate their suitability as development and commercialization partners * Predict the outcome of the next round of industry consolidation and evaluate the opportunities that such mergers may provide * Access a new model for the evaluation of current and future success for leading rivals in the pharmaceutical industry Table of Contents Introduction The Pharmaceutical Industry in 2002: Implications of the Pfizer/Pharmacia merger
Dynamics of leading pharma players, 2001-07
Implications for a new round of mergers and acqusitions
Conclusions DATASETS
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