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Commercial Insight: Asthma and COPD - Get SMART Abstract Introduction There is a positive outlook for the respiratory market over the next five years, which will experience a sustained period of growth driven by the expansion of sales in existing classes, the launch of major new products, and the results from several landmark studies. However, the patent expiries of two leading products, Singulair and Seretide, will see growth flatten from the turn of the decade. Scope Indication based forecasts for asthma/COPD products, with additional coverage of antileukotrienes sales in allergic rhinitis Assessment of country-specific drivers and resistors likely to impact the market Future market outlook for individual products taking into account key market events in particular, patent expiries, and competitor launches Market overview by geographical area, with value analysis of clinical and commercial factors underlying product performance Highlights Global asthma/COPD sales should grow to $23 billion by 2014, with inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting bronchodilator combinations set to be the leading class by value in 2014, followed by leukotriene antagonists, and anticholinergics. AstraZeneca's Symbicort should become the top-selling brand in the global market, driven by the approval of Symbicort Maintenance and Reliever therapy (SMART) in the EU, the launch of Symbicort in the US market, and the impact of generic competition on Advair/Seretide sales. Four new launches are expected within the next five years, the most significant being Symbicort in the US and the launch of novel ICS/LABA combination products which will need a strong differentiation profile, based on improved safety, flexible dosing, or once-daily dosing to compete with Advair/Seretide and Symbicort. Reasons to Purchase Identify key environmental opportunities and threats that will impact the use and uptake of new and existing products Quantify the future size and scope of the asthma/COPD market and predict the future performance of key compounds Capitalize on clinical unmet needs in the market, either through the lifecycle management of marketed drugs or new product development Table of Contents About Datamonitor healthcare About the Respiratory & Infectious Disease (RID) analysis team CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
List of Tables Table 1: Global sales split by indication by class, 2004 Table 2: Global performance by class, 2004 and 2014 Table 3: Top 15 brands in the global markets, 2004 Table 4: Sales of major brands, 2004-14 Table 5: Global sales by delivery route, 2004 Table 6: Geographical sales split, 2004-14 Table 7: Global sales by split indication by class, 2004-2014 Table 8: Sales of Seretide/Advair by indication in 5EU and US, 2004-08 Table 9: Global company sales and market share, 2004-14 Table 10: Sales of inhaled products by delivery device, US, 2004 Table 11: US approved HFA-MDIs Table 12: Monoclonal antibodies in clinical development for asthma Table 13: Sales growth due to 2003 Medicare Act reforms Table 14: Number of chest physicians per 100,000 population in 5EU Table 15: Symbicort and Seretide sales, 5EU, 2004-14 Table 16: Launch price of Symbicort in the US Table 17: Sales and market share of inhaled corticosteroids, US, 2004 Table 18: Symbicort and Seretide/Super-Advair sales, US, 2004-14 Table 19: Seretide and Super-Advair sales, 5EU, 2004-14 Table 20: Fluticasone/salmeterol generic entry, price differential and erosion rate, 5EU and US Table 21: Seretide and Super-Advair sales, US, 2004-14 Table 22: Ratio of Flixotide sales in 2000 to Seretide sales in 2004 Table 23: Global ICS/LABA combination sales, 2004-14 Table 24: Market share of ICS/LABA class of Chiesi's beclomethasone/formoterol in 5EU Table 25: Xolair sales, US, 2003-05 Table 26: Xolair patient model, US and 5EU, 2004-14 Table 27: Global antileukotriene sales, 2004 Table 28: Global Singulair sales by indication, 2004-14 Table 29: Global sales of anticholinergics, 2004 Table 30: Global sales of short-acting and long-acting beta-2 agonists, 2004 Table 31: Global sales of inhaled corticosteroids, 2004 Table 32: Symbicort launch phase market share of ICS/LABA combination class, 5EU Table 33: Symbicort launch phase price discount to Seretide, Pulmicort/Oxis and generic ICS/Oxis Table 34: Market share, sales and average cost per day of generic ICS in 5EU, 2001 Table 35: Market share, sales and average cost per day of Pulmicort Turbuhaler in 5EU, 2001 Table 36: Forecast sales, Global, 2004-14 Table 37: Forecast sales, US, 2004-14 Table 38: Forecast sales, Japan, 2004-14 Table 39: Forecast sales, France, 2004-14 Table 40: Forecast sales, Germany, 2004-14 Table 41: Forecast sales, Italy, 2004-14 Table 42: Forecast sales, Spain, 2004-14 Table 43: Forecast sales, UK, 2004-14 Table 44: Generic erosion and pricing assumptions Table 45: First-year market share for second to market and "me-too" products List of Figures Figure 1: Global asthma/COPD sales growth, 2001-04 Figure 2: Global market share by ATC class by value, 2001-04 Figure 3: Global sales split by indication by class, 2004 Figure 4: Global sales split by indication for key brands, 2004 Figure 5: Positive outlook for respiratory market Figure 6: Global sales forecast, 2004-14 Figure 7: Global performance of respiratory R3 classes, 2004-14 Figure 8: Top five brands by sales in global market, 2004 Figure 9: Global sales by delivery route, 2004-14 Figure 10: Asthma/COPD value market share by country, 2004 Figure 11: Percentage of global sales by indication, 2004-14 Figure 12: Pricing controls in Europe Figure 13: Global ICS/LABA combination sales, 2004 Figure 14: Adjustable maintenance dosing versus stable dosing regimes Figure 15: Symbicort adjustable maintenance dosing (AMD) regime Figure 16: Symbicort SMART dosing regime Figure 17: Symbicort, Seretide and Super-Advair sales, 5EU, 2004-14 Figure 18: Symbicort and Seretide/Super-Advair sales, US, 2004-14 Figure 19: Potential "dream ticket": ciclesonide/QAB-149 combination Figure 20: Global ICS/LABA combination sales, 2004-14 Figure 21: Global Singulair sales by indication, 2004-14 Figure 23: Results from roflumilast RECORD and RATIO studies Figure 23: Global sales of Spiriva, Atrovent and Combivent franchise, 2004-14 Figure 24: Xopenex sales, US, 2004-14 Figure 25: Global sales of inhaled corticosteroids products, 2004-14 Figure 26: Advantages and disadvantages of Altana's Alvesco Figure 27: Sales of Symbicort, 5EU, 2001-04 |