4Q09 Singapore Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Singapore will have 6.91 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of StarHub increasing to 28.4%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Singapore provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Singaporean wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Singapore include: Singapore Telecommunications Ltd (SingTel), MobileOne Ltd, and StarHub Ltd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Singapore+5.7% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU levels are declining in Singapore -5.7% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +12.5% in 2Q.2009
Positive EBITDA growth for SingTel and StarHub in the latest quarter+5.0% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
The number of total mobile subscribers in Singapore to reach 6.91 million in 2013
We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Singapore will increase from 6.34 million in 2008 to 6.91 million in 2013.
SingTel will continue to be the largest operator in Singapore. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 2.94 million in 2008 to 3.24 million in 2013.
Also, our model predicts that MobileOne will have 1.71 million subscribers while StarHub will have 1.96 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
StarHub will see its subscriber market share increase over the next five years
We expect that StarHub's subscriber market share will increase from 27.9% in 2008 to 28.4% in 2013.
Also, we forecast that SingTel's market share will increase slightly from 46.4% in 2008 to 46.8% in 2013.
In contrast, we expect that MobileOne's share of total subscribers will decline from 25.7% in 2008 to 24.8% in 2013.
ARPUs to continue declining from 2009 to 2013
Our forecasting model predicts that SingTel's monthly ARPU will decline from SGD 54.05 in 2008 to SGD 50.01 in 2013.
Also, MobileOne's monthly ARPU will decrease from SGD 38.88 to SGD 34.60, and StarHub's ARPU will decrease from SGD 51.04 to SGD 47.85 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
MobileOne will continue to enjoy higher profitability level than SingTel and StarHub
We think that MobileOne's EBITDA margins will continue to be higher than those of its competitors.
According to our model, EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) for SingTel, MobileOne, and StarHub will be approximately 38.3%, 45.5%, and 34.1% respectively in 2013.
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