IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Poland provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Polish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Poland include: PTC (T-Mobile International AG), Polkomtel S.A., PTK Centertel SP. Ltd., and P4 Sp. z o.o. (Play). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Poland's mobile operator space+6.0% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
Positive ARPU growth at PTC, PTK Centertel, and P4 (Play) in the latest quarterIndustry average ARPU growth of +1.7% in 2Q.2009
EBITDA declined at Polkomtel, PTK Centertel, and P4 (Play) -11.8% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Poland will rise to 48.4 million in 2013
We forecast that the number of mobile subscribers in Poland will increase from 43.9 million in 2008 to 48.4 million in 2013.
Polkomtel will continue to be the largest operator in Poland. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 14.5 million in 2008 to 15.6 million in 2013.
We also forecast that numbers of subscribers at PTC (T-Mobile), PTK Centertel, and P4 (Play) will be 15.3 million, 13.8 million and 3.6 million respectively.
Polkomtel's subscriber market share will be approximately 32.3% in 2013
We expect that subscriber market shares of PTC (T-Mobile), Polkomtel, and PTK Centertel will continue to be approximately 30% each. Our model predicts that, by the end of 2013, the market shares will be 31.7% (PTC), 32.3% (Polkomtel), and 28.6% (PTK Centertel).
On the other hand, P4 (Play) will see its market share increase over the next five years. We forecast that its share of total subscribers will increase from 4.6% in 2008 to 7.4% in 2013.
ARPUs in the Polish wireless market will continue to decline slightly over the next five years
Our model forecasts that the industry average monthly ARPU will fall from PLN 49.06 in 2008 to PLN 43.94 in 2013.
Although all of the four operators will continue to have similar ARPUs, we expect that PTC's will be the lowest at PLN 41.36 per month in 2013.
EBITDA margins to decline at Polkomtel, PTC, and PTK Centertel from 2009 to 2013
We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 33.6% in 2008 to 30.4% in 2013.
EBITDA margin at Polkomtel will fall from 36.5% in 2008 to 35.6% in 2013.
PTC's EBITDA margin will fall from 34.3% to 30.4% and PTK Centertel's EBITDA margin will fall from 37.6% to 25.5% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
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