4Q09 Greece Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Total wireless subscriber accounts in Greece to reach 20.5 million in 2013 with Cosmote taking market share of 42.3%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Greece provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Greek wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Greece include: Vodafone-Panafon Hellenic Telecommunications Company S.A., Wind Hellas Telecommunications S.A., and Cosmote Mobile Telecommunications S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Greece's mobile operator space+15.7% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPUs are declining significantly in Greece Industry average ARPU growth of -17.5% in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing at Cosmote+2.6% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009
EBITDA growth was negative across operators in the latest quarter-19.0% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber accounts in Greece to reach 20.5 million in 2013
We forecast that the number of wireless subscribers in Greece will increase from 18.9 million in 2008 to 20.5 million in 2013. This means that, on average, each person owns about two cell phones.
Cosmote will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Greece. Our model predicts that Cosmote's number of subscribers will change from 7.89 million accounts in 2008 to 8.67 million accounts in 2013.
We also forecast that, by the end of 2013, Vodafone-Panafon will have 6.37 million subscribers while Wind Hellas will have 5.46 million subscribers.
Cosmote's subscriber market share to increase slightly over the next five years
Our model predicts that Cosmote will see its subscriber market share increase slightly from 41.9% in 2008 to 42.3% in 2013.
We also expect that Vodafone-Panafon's subscriber market share will increase from 30.6% to 31.1% while Wind Hellas's market share decreases from 27.5% to 26.6% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels in Greece will be declining from 2008 to 2013
We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will fall from €20.39 in 2008 to €17.13 in 2013.
We expect that Cosmote's monthly ARPU level will decline from €22.00 to €16.49, and Vodafone-Panafon's monthly ARPU will decline from €21.31 to €17.40 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Cosmote will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Vodafone-Panafon and Wind Hellas over the next five years
We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 38.4% in 2008 to 36.1% in 2013.
Cosmote will continue to enjoy the highest EBITDA margin among operators at 42.5% in 2013 compared to 27.0% for Vodafone-Panafon and 37.6% for Wind Hellas.
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