4Q09 France Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: France will have 67.7 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Orange's MVNOs taking 5.5% market share
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on France provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the French wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for France include: Orange (France Telecom S.A.), SFR (Vodafone Group Plc), Bouygues Telecom, Orange's MVNOs, and SFR's MVNOs. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
All operators enjoy positive subscriber growth in the French wireless market+5.3% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU level is declining in France-0.3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber stabilizing at about 250 minutes per month0% industry average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) in 2Q.2009
Negative EBITDA growth at SFR (Vodafone) and Bouygues Telecom in the latest quarterIndustry average EBITDA growth was +0.2% in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber accounts in France to rise to 67.7 million in 2013
We forecast that total mobile subscribers in France will increase from 57.4 million in 2008 to 67.7 million in 2013.
Orange (France Telecom) will continue to be the largest operator. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 25.2 million in 2008 to 28.5 million in 2013.
Our forecasting model also predicts that numbers of subscribers at SFR and Bouygues Telecom will be 22.9 million and 11.1 million respectively in 2013.
MVNOs of Orange and SFR will be taking higher shares of total subscribers over the next several years
Our model predicts that Orange's subscriber market share will decrease from 43.9% to 42.1% while the market share of its MVNO increases from 3.2% to 5.5% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Also, although SFR's market share will decline from 34.2% in 2008 to 33.8% in 2013, SFR's MVNOs will see their combined market share increase from 2.0% in 2008 to 2.3% in 2013, according to our model.
We expect that Bouygues Telecom's market share will remain stable in the range of 16% - 17% over the next five years.
ARPU levels will stabilize in France's mobile operator space from 2009 to 2013
Although ARPU levels continue to decline in many wireless markets around the world, we expect that ARPUs in France will remain stable over the next several years.
Our model forecasts that Orange's monthly ARPU will increase slightly from €33.19 in 2008 to €34.51 in 2013 while monthly ARPU at SFR (Vodafone) declines from €36.04 in 2008 to €34.93 in 2013.
Bouygues Telecom's ARPU level continues to be higher than the other operators’ ARPU levels. Bouygues Telecom’s monthly ARPU will be approximately €41.50 from 2009 to 2013.
EBITDA margins will decline slightly in the French mobile operator space
We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 36.1% in 2008 to 33.7% in 2013.
Our model predicts that Orange's EBITDA margin will fall from 37.3% to 34.7% and SFR (Vodafone)'s margin will fall from 38.9% to 37.0% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
(0 items)
