4Q09 Finland Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Finland will have 9.32 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with TeliaSonera's market share declining to 33.3%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Finland provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Finish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Finland include: TeliaSonera AB, Elisa Oyj, and DNA Finland Oy. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Strong subscriber growth continues in Finland's wireless market+12.7% industry-average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU levels continue declining in Finland's mobile operator space-11.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are decreasingThe industry average MOU/Sub growth of -11.7% in 2Q.2009
Positive EBITDA growth across operators in the latest quarter+10.7% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Finland to reach 9.32 million in 2013
We forecast that the number of total subscriber accounts in Finland will increase from 6.78 million in 2008 to 9.32 million in 2013.
The largest mobile operator in 2013 will be Elisa with 3.57 million mobile subscribers. We also forecast that the numbers of mobile subscribers at TeliaSonera and DNA will be approximately 3.10 million and 2.65 million respectively by the end of 2013.
TeliaSonera's subscriber market share will be declining over the next five years
We forecast that TeliaSonera's subscriber market share in Finland's wireless market will decline from 39.5% in 2008 to 33.3% in 2013.
In comparison, we expect that Elisa's market share will increase from 37.5% to 38.3% and DNA's market share will increase from 23.1% to 28.4% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels in Finland will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013
Given the latest quarter numbers, our model forecasts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from €25.78 in 2008 to €15.94 in 2013.
We expect that TeliaSonera's monthly ARPU will decline to €15.28 and Elisa's monthly ARPU will decline to €14.58 by the end of 2013.
EBITDA margins to remain stable in Finland's wireless market
TeliaSonera will continue to have higher EBITDA margins than Elisa and DNA over the next five years. We forecast that TeliaSoneras EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will be approximately 31.3% in 2013.
On the other hand, we forecast that EBITDA margins at Elisa and DNA will be 30.1% and 20.9% in 2013.
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