4Q09 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: There will be 29.1 million mobile subscribers in Canada by the end of 2013 with Rogers Wireless taking 37.7% market share
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Canada provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Canadian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Canada include: Bell Mobility Inc., Rogers Wireless Inc., Telus Mobility (part of Telus Corporation), and MTS Allstream Inc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is declining slightly in Canada's mobile operator space +6.9% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
Negative ARPU growth across operators -3.9% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber continues to increase +0.2% industry average growth in MOU/Sub in 2Q.2009
EBITDA growth in Canada slows down+0.9% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Canada to reach 29.1 million in 2013
According to our forecasting model, total mobile subscribers in Canada will increase from 21.6 million in 2008 to 29.1 million in 2013.
We expect that Rogers Wireless will see its subscriber base increase from 7.94 million in 2008 to 11.0 million in 2013.
Also, we forecast that Bell Mobility will have 8.48 million mobile subscribers and Telus Mobility will have 8.39 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013.
Rogers Wireless will see its subscriber market share increase over the next five years
Our model predicts that Rogers Wireless will continue to lead Canada in market shares. Given the latest quarter numbers, we expect that its subscriber market share will increase from 36.8% in 2008 to 37.7% in 2013.
Also, Telus Mobility's market share will increase slightly from 28.4% in 2008 to 28.8% in 2013.
On the other hand, we expect Bell Mobility's share of total subscribers to decline from 30.6% in 2008 to 29.1% in 2013.
We expect that MTS will continue to have a subscriber market share of 2.2% - 2.3% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.
The overall ARPU level expected to decrease over the next several years
Our model predicts that the industry will see an overall decrease in operator ARPUs over the next five years.
Rogers Wireless will continue to enjoy a higher ARPU level than Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility, but we still expect that Rogers Wireless's ARPU will decline from C$ 63.72 in 2008 to C$ 55.64 in 2013.
On the other hand, average ARPU levels at Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility will decline to C$ 51.40 and C$ 43.64 respectively in 2013, according to our model.
Profitability at Bell Mobility will improve over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013
We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be 42.1% in 2013, down from 43.8% in 2008.
Our forecasting model predicts that Bell Mobility will see its EBITDA margin increase from 39.7% in 2008 to 43.8% in 2013.
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