4Q09 Austria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: There will be 12.7 million mobile subscribers in Austria in 2013 with mobilkom austria taking 43.7% subscriber market share
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Austria provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Austrian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Austria include: mobilkom austria (Telekom Austria Group), T-Mobile International AG, Connect Austria, and Drei. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Stable subscriber growth continues in Austria's mobile operator space+7.6% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU levels continue to decline across operators in AustriaThe industry average ARPU growth rate of -9.9% in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber remain at approximately 200 minutes per month-1.0% industry-wide MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009
Positive EBITDA growth at mobilkom austria and T-Mobile in the latest quarter+2.9% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Austria to reach 12.7 million in 2013
According to our forecasting model, total wireless subscriber accounts in Austria will increase from 10.6 million in 2008 to 12.7 million in 2013.
mobilkom austria will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Austria. We forecast that its subscriber base will increase from 4.49 million in 2008 to approximately 5.55 million in 2013.
T-Mobile will remain to be the second largest operator with 3.43 million subscribers in 2013.
Connect Austria and Drei will have the third and fourth places with 2.30 million and 1.42 million subscribers respectively in 2013.
mobilkom austria's market share will rise and that of T-Mobile will fall over the next five years
Our model predicts that T-Mobile's subscriber market share will decline from 32.2% in 2008 to 27.0% in 2013.
Instead, we expect that mobilkom austria will see its market share increase from 42.6% in 2008 to 43.7% in 2013.
Also, we forecast that Drei's market share will increase from 5.8% to 11.2% while Connect Austria's share decreases from 19.5% to 18.1% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels in Austria will decline from 2009 to 2013
Our model predicts that ARPU declines in Austria will continue over the next five years with the industry average ARPU reaching €20.81 in 2013.
At the operator level, we expect that mobilkom austria will continue to receive the highest ARPU in the country in 2013 at €21.91 per month.
In comparison, we forecast that ARPUs at T-Mobile and Connect Austria will be lower at €21.00 and €17.89 respectively in 2013.
EBITDA margins at T-Mobile and Connect Austria will decline slightly over the next several years
We expect that mobilkom austria will continue to enjoy a higher level of EBITDA margin than T-Mobile and Connect Austria. We forecast that mobilkom austria's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase slightly from 36.0% in 2008 to 36.4% in 2013.
Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at T-Mobile and Connect Austria will be declining over the next five years to reach 25.3% and 24.5% respectively in 2013.
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