Countries covered: Sudan
The new Sudan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.09% of Africanregional oil demand by 2013, while providing 6.44% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrelsper day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 3.60mn b/d in 2008. It should average 3.58mn b/d in 2009 and then rise toaround 3.96mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged10.20mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.98mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demandgrowth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d.This total had risen to 6.60mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.02mn b/d by 2013. Angola has thegreatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to soar if it can resolve recent quasipoliticalissues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 115bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 181bcmtargeted for 2013. Production of 211bcm in 2008 should reach 354bcm in 2013, which implies net exportsrising from 96bcm in 2008 to 173bcm by the end of the period. Sudan is neither a consumer nor producerof gas.
For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuckwith during the past three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals andDubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, we expect tosee a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of US$58), gainingfurther ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchangedand we are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel havingpeaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast isfor an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyearoutturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast tobe US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put byBMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
Sudanese real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 3.2% for 2009, down from 7.8% in 2008. We areassuming 2.4% growth in 2010, 2.8% in 2011, followed by 3.0% in 2012 and 3.4% in 2013. We expectoil demand to rise from an estimated 99,000b/d in 2008 to 122,000b/d in 2013. State oil company SudanNational Petroleum Corporation (Sudapet) is active in the country’s oil exploration and production(E&P) sector, working in partnership with foreign (largely Asian) companies in raising oil output from480,000b/d in 2008 to 771,000bd in 2013. There are no plans for significant gas production orconsumption.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Sudan oil and gas liquids production of 50.9%,with volumes peaking at 785,000b/d in 2014, before falling steadily to 724,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 58.3%, with growthslowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 156,000b/dby 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Sudan now occupies ninth place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, havingovertaken Equatorial Guinea. The slim one-point margin leaves it vulnerable to assault from below. Thecountry’s score suffers from very poor country risk issues, the absence of gas resources and significantstate influence. Unless the risk profile changes for the better, Sudan will struggle to edge further awayfrom the foot of the table, in spite of healthy oil resources. The country is near the mid-point of the leaguetable in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with few high scores and progressfurther up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market grows more rapidly or new refineries are built.
It is ranked equal sixth alongside Libya thanks to low scores for gas demand, country risk factors andnominal GDP.
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