Relative to the Q309 report, the main changes have been a review of the company profiles - both localand multinational. We have also included a large quantity of new data. In virtually all cases the regulatoror the trade association have published final premium figures for 2008, which was not necessarily thecase in May, when we prepared the Q309 reports. In many instances, we have revised our projections ofnon-life penetration and life density. This is because it has become clear that the linear progressions thatwe had been expecting for most countries are not an accurate reflection of what has been happening in thefirst half of 2009. As a consequence, we have much greater confidence in our forecasts of premiumincome for 2009.
Early 2009 was in many ways a challenging but far from disastrous period for the major protagonists inmost insurance markets. Notwithstanding the fact that particular non-life markets suffered as a result of aslump in the number of cars registered, and correspondingly lower demand for compulsory third partymotor (CTPM) insurance and voluntary motor insurance, global non-life premiums generally held up wellin spite of the global economic downturn. In contrast, life premiums were, in most markets, lower inQ109 than they had been in Q108. This was largely the result of the past volatility in global equitymarkets, although there were also other problems. Conditions remain fair in the global reinsurance market.
In terms of the major regions whose insurance markets are covered by BMI’s reports, Latin America andthe Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stood out in terms of growth in premiums (in non-lifeinsurance in particular, but also in life insurance). Conditions were far more mixed in Central and Eastern(CEE) Europe (particularly in non-life insurance, where the downturn in car registrations hit hard) andAsia Pacific, where various factors caused slippage in life premiums in many markets.
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