BMI forecasts that Kazakhstan will account for 3.63% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regionalpower generation by 2013. CEE power generation in 2008 was 2,610 terawatt hours (TWh), representingan increase of 1.35% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to2,884TWh by 2013, representing an increase of 10.51%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 was around 1,342TWh, accounting for 51.42% of the total electricitysupplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,384TWh, implying 3.11% growth that reduces onlyslightly the market share of thermal generation to 47.99% - in spite of environmental concerns promotingrenewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Kazakhstan’s thermal generation in 2008 wasaround 71.8TWh, or 5.35% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 6.57% ofthermal generation.
Coal is the dominant fuel source in Kazakhstan, accounting for 51.9% of primary energy demand (PED).
Coal is followed by gas at 28.6%, oil at 16.8% and hydro with a 2.7% share of PED. Regional energydemand is forecast to reach 1,518mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 11.84% growthover the period. Kazakhstan’s 2008 market share of 4.77% of regional demand is set to rise to 5.56% by2013. Kazakhstan has longer-term plans for nuclear power generation, but will not contribute to nuclearconsumption during the forecast period.
Kazakhstan is just below Poland and Turkey in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment ratings.There is a powerful combination of unrivalled power consumption growth outlook, region-topping energydemand growth, steady privatisation progress, and relatively low level of energy import dependence.
Country risk factors offset some of the industry strengths, but the country has the longer-term potential tochallenge Poland and Turkey for the top rung of the regional ladder.
BMI is now forecasting Kazakh real GDP growth to average 3.72% per annum between 2009 and 2013,although we anticipate a decline of 1.90% in 2009. The population is expected to expand from 15.4mn to15.9mn over the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast toincrease 8.4% and 8.7%, respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from anestimated 66.2TWh in 2008 to 74.3TWh by the end of the forecast period, while surplus generation isexpected to rise from an estimated 13.8TWh in 2008 to 30.5TWh in 2013, assuming 5.4% annual growthin power generation. In fact, system wastage and transmission weaknesses mean that Kazakhstan has toimport some power, as well as export electricity to Russia.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Kazakh electricity generation of 83.78%,which is the second highest projected growth rate for the CEE region. This equates to 40.26% over the2013-2018 period, up from 31.03% between 2008 and 2013. PED growth is set to increase from 30.55%between 2008 and 2013 to 35.72%, representing 77.18% for the entire forecast period. An increase of144% in hydro-power use during the period 2008-2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermalpower generation is forecast to rise by 77% between 2008 and 2018. More detailed long-term forecastscan be found later in this report.
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