Countries covered: Cambodia, Laos
BMI’s latest update on the telecoms markets in Cambodia and Laos includes new regulatory and operatordata on the size of these two countries’ mobile subscriber, fixed-line and internet access markets at theend of March 2009. Based on the available data, we have made several revisions to our five-year growthforecasts for these markets.
Based on data published by Cambodia’s leading mobile operators, BMI calculates that the Cambodianmobile customer base grew by 15.5% in the first three months of 2009. By the end of March, Cambodiahad almost 4.6mn mobile users, equivalent to a penetration rate of around 30%. In the first few months of2009, Cambodia witnessed the launch of commercial services by three new mobile network operators.
These were Vietnam’s Viettel, which launched commercial operations in February, Smart Mobile, whichcommenced GSM operations in March, and Sotelco, which launched services under the Beeline banner inMay. Sotelco was acquired by Russian operator VimpelCom in July 2008 from Altimo at a cost ofUS$28mn for a 90% stake. VimpelCom has pledged around US$200mn to be spent in its Cambodiannetwork in the first three to four years following its commercial launch.
The presence of nine mobile operators in Cambodia is thought to have significant implications for thedevelopment of the sector. Firstly, mobile subscriber growth appears to be accelerating as the level ofcompetition increases. Indeed, early indications suggest that 2009 will see much stronger subscribergrowth than in 2008. BMI now predicts that the Cambodian mobile customer base will grow to almost6.23mn at the end of 2009. Our new forecast envisages growth of over 62% in 2009, dropping to 42.5%in 2010.
In neighbouring Laos, recent developments point to the possibility of an increasingly dynamic mobilemarket in the months ahead. As noted in our previous report, recent months saw the launch of commercialoperations by Vietnam’s Viettel, which will operate in Laos under the Star Telecom brand as part of ajoint venture with the Laotian government. Meanwhile, in September, it was announced that Russia’sVimpelCom had agreed to acquire a 78% stake in Millicom Lao from Luxembourg-based MillicomInternational Cellular. Although the completion of the acquisition will require regulatory approval, thisis expected to be forthcoming before the end of the year. BMI predicts that Laos’ active mobilesubscriber base will surpass the 2mn subscriber mark by the end of 2009.
Cambodia and Laos respectively sit in 13th and 15th position in BMI’s latest set of business environmentratings for the Asia Pacific region. The two countries generally score below average for the Asia Pacificregion. Nevertheless, they continue to perform better than regional neighbours Thailand and Vietnam. Asa result of having a more competitive sector, Cambodia continues to have a higher score than Laos in thetelecoms market category.
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