US demand to increase 4.5% annually through 2013 Demand in the US for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment is forecast to increase 4.5 percent per year to $17 billion in 2013. Advances will be driven by a recovery in residential construction spending from a low 2008 base. Demand will also benefit from interest in more energy efficient HVAC systems, caused by volatile energy prices. Public and private rebates, credits and other incentives will also encourage owners to upgrade to models with efficiency ratings that are at or above ENERGY STAR levels. Ongoing changes in federal regulations regarding minimum efficiency requirements for many of these systems and the phase-out of ozonedepleting refrigerants will also favorably affect sales of HVAC equipment. HVAC shipments are forecast to advance somewhat slower than demand at 4.0 percent per year to $15.2 billion in 2013, as import growth from Asia and Mexico continues, particularly for more basic systems, and domestic production continues to shift outside the US.
Small geothermal category to be fastest growing The choice among various fuels used in HVAC systems is largely affected by the convenience, environmental friendliness, availability and price of the fuels, and the initial costs, operational costs and efficiency of the systems that use the fuels. In 2008, electric powered HVAC systems accounted for 83 percent of US sales value and natural gas-burning systems accounted for 14 percent of sales. Systems operating on geothermal energy will post the strongest gains, albeit from a very small base, driven by the tax credits available for such systems installed between 2009 and 2016.
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Heat pumps to remain dominant heating equipment In 2008, heat pumps accounted for the largest share of heating equipment value demand and will account for 52 percent in 2013. Additionally, heat pumps are expected to post the strongest gains through 2013. Heat pump demand benefits from the ability of these units to provide efficient heating and cooling in moderate climates, as well as the increasing availability of more efficient innovations in low temperature and geothermal versions. While warm air furnaces will continue to account for the second largest share of heating equipment sales through 2013, this segment is expected to lose market share over the period. Sales of warm air furnaces will be supported by their relatively low initial cost, availability using most fuel types and amenability to installation with other central home comfort systems.
Room air conditioners to pace cooling equipment Unitary air conditioners will remain the largest segment in the cooling equipment industry, accounting for 71 percent of total value demand in 2013. Gains are expected to be slightly above average over this period. Room air conditioners are expected to post the strongest gains through 2013 as quieter and more efficient units become available and residential construction recovers from depressed 2008 levels. Most other types of cooling equipment will be hampered by their widespread use in nonresidential applications, a market which is due to slow from a high 2008 base. The cooling equipment industry is affected by a variety of regulations, including those on ozone-depleting refrigerants. As a result, the chlorine-free refrigerant HFC-410A is being phased in across a variety of price points by most manufacturers.
Study coverage HVAC Equipment is a new Freedonia industry study priced at $4800. It presents historic demand data (1998, 2003, 2008) plus forecasts for 2013 and 2018 by fuel type, product and market. The study also considers market environment factors, assesses the industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles 36 US industry players.
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