The German communications market, including traditional pay-TV, is expected to generate $66.6bn in service revenue for 2008. We expect the market to grow, in euro terms, at a CAGR of 1.2% over the 2008-2013 period. On an absolute basis, the main growth drivers will be broadband Internet, VoIP and mobile data. We forecast a decline in circuit-switched voice revenue — from $18.7bn in 2008 to $14.4bn in 2013 — and in mobile voice revenue — from $23.2bn in 2008 to $20.6bn in 2013 — both in-line with trends throughout Europe, although not enough to offset growth generated by other sectors of the market.
DT still dominates the local loop, but vigorous competition has developed in the long-distance voice market. The 2003 introduction of carrier selection and carrier preselection for local calls has led to a considerable fall in the operator’s market share in this sector. DT must also contend with increased broadband competition as a result of resale DSL and regulator-mandated cuts to local loop prices. The mobile sector is dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, which together control about 72% of the market.
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