Demand in China to grow 6% annually through 2012 Demand for cement in China is forecast to rise 6.0 percent annually through 2012 to 1.8 billion metric tons. Growth will be driven by rising, but decelerating, construction expenditures in China. Further advances in cement manufacturing technology will also help stimulate sales by improving the quality of the product. Blended cements will account for about 90 percent of total sales in 2012, reflecting the versatility of these types across a range of construction applications, as well as their performance and/or price benefits over competitive cements. Regional cement markets reflect differences in construction expenditures, which in turn are driven by local trends in demographics, industrial output and economic activity. The Central-East is expected to remain the largest cement market in China through 2012, fueled by increases in regional construction expenditures. However, the cement markets in the Northwest and Southwest will grow at the fastest pace, benefiting from the government’s Great Western Development strategy, which aims to promote investment in these areas. Consumption of cement in the Central- North is also expected to perform above the national average, supported by high levels of transportation infrastructure construction and booming urban markets in Beijing and Tianjin.
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Nonresidential building will remain largest end use Nonresidential building construction will continue to represent the largest end use for cement, benefiting from ongoing industrialization in China. Nonresidential building cement consumption will also be boosted by the construction of new production facilities as the Chinese industrial sector focuses on more value added goods. However, demand for cement in nonbuilding construction will outpace other construction categories. In the short term, demand for cement used in infrastructure applications will benefit from government spending packages designed to offset the effects of the global economic downturn. In the longer term, a number of large infrastructure projects and other government initiatives to address imbalances in development between urban and rural areas will boost nonbuilding cement consumption.
Ready-mix concrete to be fastest growing market Construction contractors will continue to represent the largest market for cement, accounting for nearly one-third of total demand in 2012. However, the ready-mix concrete market will exhibit the strongest growth, posting near double-digit gains through 2012. Gains will benefit from government regulations banning on-site concrete and mortar mixing. Demand for cement used in concrete products will be driven by the increasing popularity of precast concrete with many construction contractors. In addition, the phase-out of clay bricks will heighten demand for concrete blocks.
Study coverage Cement in China, a 203-page Freedonia industry study, is available for $5100. It presents historical demand data (1997, 2002, 2007) plus forecasts (2012, 2017) by product, market, end use and region. The study also considers market environment forces, assesses market shares and profiles more than 30 industry players.
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